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Election 2015: the end of the line – my election-eve prediction

Election pundit Adrian Sykes gives his final prediction before the polls open.

150506-polling

The name of this incubus might well remain a secret until the Queen makes it public in her speech to Parliament. By then it should be clear if it is the product of a single parent, a soon-to-be married couple, or the issue of a deviant mnage a trois or even quatre.

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Whatever the outcome there will be no 41-gun salute but there may well be some hastily organised firing squads.

I have stretched this unpleasant analogy as far as good taste will permit, so it's time to turn to the opinion polls. No consensus exists so Iquote the BBC Newsnight average of the opinion polls and what that implies about seat numbers, along with today's spreads:

PartyBBC POLL OF POLLSSpread
Tory(34%) 281290-93
Labour(33%) 266263-66
LibDem2625-27
SNP5247.5-49.5
UKIP12.1-3.6
Green1n/a
Other23n/a
TOTAL650650 (bid)

It is often said that the British electorate knows best. Perhaps that was once true but nowadays, even those who pay no taxes can (and will) vote for the party that promises them an ever-greater share of the public treasury.

As all parties have done this over the last few agonising months, the voting system has finally devoured itself; and we are left with nothing much to go on, other than instinct (not to be confused with preference) and by "following the money". The polls are useless.

Bear in mind that they always underestimate the "shy Tory" vote; and that the incumbent party usually has a 1-2% advantage on voting day.

My own eve-of-battle forecast? Cameron will win either side of 300 seats and still be prime minister on Saturday morning; and, if he introduces the 2010 boundary changes, for five more years too. Clegg will win his seat and have to agree to this.

Then back to worrying about Grexit: bring it on.

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