Dunelm has done well and looks inexpensive – should you invest?

Home furnishings retailer Dunelm has proved resilient and looks inexpensive

A general exterior view of a Dunelm homeware and home furnishings retail store
(Image credit: John Keeble/Getty Images)

These are tough times for big retailers. They are beset by the cost of living, uncertainty about the global economy and rising staff costs, especially after the recent increase in employers’ national-insurance contributions. However, some well-run retailers have managed to rise above the turbulence.

One of these is Dunelm Group (LSE: DNLM), which we successfully tipped three years ago in issue 1114, selling in issue 1152 for a profit of £789. This proved to be a wise decision, as for the next two years the stock largely trod water. Lately, however, it has started to take off, so this is a good time to consider another punt.

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While it has consistently grown the number of stores that it operates, it has balanced this expansion with investment in its website, allowing it to benefit from consumers’ gradual move online. More recently, it has tried to offset the rise in national insurance payments by boosting the number of self-service checkouts and by working hard to improve efficiency.

Dunelm's rivals will struggle to match up

The upshot is that Dunelm has prospered as others have stumbled, increasing its market share to 7.7%. Sales have increased more than 50% over the past five years, and the latest figures suggest they are still on the rise. While the entrance of the US retailer Pottery Barn into the UK market is a potential threat, the new arrival will take some time to establish itself, and Dunelm’s efficiency and recognisable brand should help it rise to the challenge. At the same time, Dunelm’s purchase nine months ago of Irish retailer Home Focus provides scope for expansion, as well as making it less dependent on the UK market.

Dunelm boasts solid operating margins and an excellent return on capital employed, which has consistently been greater than 40%. It also has relatively low levels of debt, which should sustain it even if consumer confidence suddenly declines. The stock still looks very attractive, however, trading at a modest 14.6 times 2026 earnings. Even better, it offers a dividend yield of 5.5%, which is much higher than the average of 3.6% for the FTSE 350 as a whole.

Dunelm’s shares also have plenty of momentum behind them. They are trading above their 50-day and 200-day moving averages and have outperformed the market over the past three, six and 12 months, with several brokers recently upgrading their price forecasts. I therefore suggest that you go long at the current price of 1,169p at £2 per 1p. In that case, I would put the stop loss of 769p, which gives you a total downside of 800p.


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Dr Matthew Partridge
Shares editor, MoneyWeek

Matthew graduated from the University of Durham in 2004; he then gained an MSc, followed by a PhD at the London School of Economics.

He has previously written for a wide range of publications, including the Guardian and the Economist, and also helped to run a newsletter on terrorism. He has spent time at Lehman Brothers, Citigroup and the consultancy Lombard Street Research.

Matthew is the author of Superinvestors: Lessons from the greatest investors in history, published by Harriman House, which has been translated into several languages. His second book, Investing Explained: The Accessible Guide to Building an Investment Portfolio, is published by Kogan Page.

As senior writer, he writes the shares and politics & economics pages, as well as weekly Blowing It and Great Frauds in History columns He also writes a fortnightly reviews page and trading tips, as well as regular cover stories and multi-page investment focus features.

Follow Matthew on Twitter: @DrMatthewPartri