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Election 2015: forget the Tory wobble – Cameron can still win

Adrian Sykes explains why he still believes that David Cameron will bluff his way through the election and back in to 10 Downing Street.

150427-david-cameron
Forget the wobble, Cameron will bluff his way back into Number 10

Forget the "Tory wobble" posited in The Times leader today, and the razzmatazz about Ed Miliband being willing (and able) to rely upon the SNP to deliver a Queen's Speech the spreads say that he will not.

An administration led by David Cameron, in coalition with the LibDems and DUP, remains the most likely outcome:

Conservative285.5-289.5 (+1)
Labour269.5-273.5
LibDem24-26
SNP45-7 (-0.5)
Ukip3.6-5.1 (-0.1)
DUP8-9

The maths, at current offer prices (323 needed):

Conservative289 + 26 = 315 + 9 (DUP) = (coalition)324
Labour273 + 47 = 320 + ? (no coalition)

any

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So I still believe that Cameron will bluff his way into see the Queen, and that Miliband will not. Cameron just needs to redouble his passion and avoid cock-ups if he wants to win. To feel comfortable, the Tories must pick up another ten to 15 seats - which I think they might. My target remains 300.

As for Scotland, Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson is doing a good job she provides a jollier, more truthful and principled opposition to Nicola Sturgeon than any other party leader north of the border. The Tories will outpoll the LibDems by a margin; and tactical voting may be effective.

In short, the Tories may well do better in Scotland than the polls indicate the polling booth is like a lavatory: no one knows precisely what the occupant will do in private.

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