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Election 2015: I still think Cameron will win this week

Adrian Sykes is still convinced that David Cameron will be the one making the Queen's speech on 27 May. Here, he outlines his latest election predictions.

150504-david-cameron

David Cameron: Adrian Sykes believes he can win outright

The bookies are not making prices today. I will update these tomorrow.

But here's my present thinking: the 1983 election is remembered for Michael Foot's donkey jacket; in 1992, Kinnock's triumphalist speech in Sheffield was a defining moment; after the 2015 election we will always associate Miliband with a tombstone of promises.

It has been a while since I first forecast the results on 7 May. One Royal baby later, little else has happened to alter my opinion. My latest prediction is as follows:

PartyMay 2015forecastMay 2015Scotland forecast
Conservative3023
Labour2486
SNP4646
Liberal Democrats274
DUP9-
Sinn Fein5-
SDLP3-
Independent1-
Plaid Cymru4-
Alliance0-
Green1-
Respect0-
Speaker1-
Ukip3-
Total65059

Tories + Lib Dem = 329 (amajority) + DUP if necessary

Labour + SNP + Others = 303 maximum.

The only real changes since November have been the surge in SNP support (now possibly wilting) and a failure by UKIP to "follow through" - these more or less cancel each other out. The other minority parties are of no consequence.

For all the noise and bluster, myconclusion then is overall the same today: Labour cannotgovern, alone or in alliance; and the Tories can only be sure of governing in coalition with the Lib Dems (that will be made harder if Nick Clegg loses his seat).

Cameron could and should go it alone, or insist on implementing the boundary changes as the price of coalition and be prepared for another election if he can't. Hecouldwin that outright. I believe that he'll make the Queen's speech on 27 May - and mightwin an overall majority anyway.

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