'BP’s days as an oil giant are numbered – a merger with Shell would be the best outcome by far'

BP's rival, Shell, has expressed interest in a takeover. That would be the least-worst option for Britain’s beleaguered oil giant, says Matthew Lynn

logo of BP
(Image credit: Cheng Xin/Getty Images)

BP’s days as a stand-alone company seem numbered. Shell has had discussions about a takeover of its rival, The Wall Street Journal reported last week. This won’t happen immediately – Shell has denied it is about to launch a bid, which means it is now not allowed to make an offer for at least six months. But the blunt truth is that BP has been in decline for a long time.

Rewind a quarter of a century to when the shift into green energy began, and BP and Shell were roughly equal. The two heavyweights of the European oil and gas industry had been slugging it out for a century without either ever coming out decisively on top. In the last decade, however, Shell has pulled ahead. With a market value more than twice BP’s, it still ranks in the top five in the industry, while BP has slumped to 14th.

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Matthew Lynn

Matthew Lynn is a columnist for Bloomberg, and writes weekly commentary syndicated in papers such as the Daily Telegraph, Die Welt, the Sydney Morning Herald, the South China Morning Post and the Miami Herald. He is also an associate editor of Spectator Business, and a regular contributor to The Spectator. Before that, he worked for the business section of the Sunday Times for ten years. 

He has written books on finance and financial topics, including Bust: Greece, The Euro and The Sovereign Debt Crisis and The Long Depression: The Slump of 2008 to 2031. Matthew is also the author of the Death Force series of military thrillers and the founder of Lume Books, an independent publisher.