ONS: UK economy grew by 0.3% in November – what does it mean for interest rates?

The UK economy unexpectedly grew by 0.3% in November following a boost in car manufacturing and the services sector.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose month-on-month, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said, in part due to a recovery in production at Jaguar Land Rover, which was hit by a major cyber attack at the end of August.

The services sector grew by 0.3% while the production sector rose by 1.1%. This was partially offset by a fall of 1.3% in construction.

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Analysts had forecast GDP would rise by just 0.1% in the month to November.

GDP grew by 0.1% in the three months to November, compared to the three months to August, after no growth in the three months to October.

Susannah Streeter, chief investment strategist at investment firm Wealth Club, said November was “always going to be an uphill struggle for the UK economy” post-Budget, but it had not been “completely defeated on its quest for growth”.

“There will be sighs of relief in Downing Street that the economy has shown more resilience,” Streeter said.

Economists said they expect to see positive economic growth for the final three months of 2025.

Suren Thiru, economics director at the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales, said: “November’s uptick means it’s inevitable that the UK economy grew modestly across the final quarter of 2025 with easing uncertainty post-Budget likely to have supported growth in December, despite the ‘super flu’ disrupting activity in sectors like education.”

However, Thiru said members of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) would be watching the upbeat figures with caution.

“These figures make a February interest rate cut less likely by giving those rate-setters still concerned over inflation with sufficient comfort over economic conditions to delay voting to ease policy again.”

‘Glimmers of optimism ahead’

The latest figures from the ONS come after GDP slowed from spring until the end of 2025.

However, the Labour government, which has made growth one of its main priorities, will be buoyed by the ONS’s November data.

Streeter said it was possible the UK economy had passed the "nadir of pessimism" and there were "glimmers of optimism" ahead.

She added: “While unemployment looks set to rise, which is causing wariness for consumer-focused sectors, inflation is cooling and interest rates have been cut.

“This may encourage households who’ve built up nest eggs of savings to be a bit more flash with their cash and spend more, supporting economic growth.

"With Budget uncertainty now in the rear-view mirror, and some of the onerous Treasury measures on agriculture and hospitality farms being rolled back, it could also boost business sentiment going forward.”