Election 2015: the final debate – the bookies’ verdict is in
Markets are starting to suggest that the election race is all over, says Adrian Sykes.
In my judgement, in last night's Question Time Special, Cameron scored 8.5 out of 10, Miliband 6 and Clegg 5. Furthermore, Miliband's mistake in failing to acknowledge any role in, or responsibility for, the financial crisis, will cost him dear.
Unsurprisingly, the spreads have moved:
|Tories||290.5 - 294.5|
|Labour||262.5 - 266.5|
|Lib Dem||23 - 25|
|SNP||48.5 - 50.5|
|Ukip||3.2 - 4.7|
The maths (using the offer prices):
|Tories/Lib Dem||294 + 25 = 319 (+ DUP, no UKIP =327),|
|Labour/SNP||266 + 50 = 316 (no Lib Dem) = failure.|
|Lib Dem||15 (Clegg beaten)|
|Ukip||2 (Farage beaten)|
|Sinn Fein||5 (won't take up seats)|
|Other||12 (SDLP, Plaid Cymru, Green, etc)|
|Total||650 (323 needed for a majority)|
I suspect that a good way to make money in the stockmarket would be to buy Lloyds at 83p (up sharply today on strong first-quarter figures for full disclosure, I own the shares myself). The shares would probably take off during the first few months of a Tory-led government.
Things could easily change in the final few days, but markets are starting to suggest that it's all over. How long will it take for the polls to catch up?