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Election 2015: the final debate – the bookies’ verdict is in

Markets are starting to suggest that the election race is all over, says Adrian Sykes.

15-1-5-cameron-634
David Cameron on Question Time will he be forming the next government?

In my judgement, in last night's Question Time Special, Cameron scored 8.5 out of 10, Miliband 6 and Clegg 5. Furthermore, Miliband's mistake in failing to acknowledge any role in, or responsibility for, the financial crisis, will cost him dear.

Unsurprisingly, the spreads have moved:

Tories290.5 - 294.5
Labour262.5 - 266.5
Lib Dem23 - 25
SNP48.5 - 50.5
Ukip3.2 - 4.7

The maths (using the offer prices):

Tories/Lib Dem294 + 25 = 319 (+ DUP, no UKIP =327),
Labour/SNP266 + 50 = 316 (no Lib Dem) = failure.

on

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trend

Tories310
Labour248
Lib Dem15 (Clegg beaten)
SNP50
Ukip2 (Farage beaten)
DUP8
Sinn Fein5 (won't take up seats)
Other12 (SDLP, Plaid Cymru, Green, etc)
Total650 (323 needed for a majority)

I suspect that a good way to make money in the stockmarket would be to buy Lloyds at 83p (up sharply today on strong first-quarter figures for full disclosure, I own the shares myself). The shares would probably take off during the first few months of a Tory-led government.

Things could easily change in the final few days, but markets are starting to suggest that it's all over. How long will it take for the polls to catch up?

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