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Election 2015: is a Tory surge coming? The bookies don’t yet think so

The latest Ashcroft poll shows what looks like a surge for the Tories, says Adrian Sykes. But the bookies and spread betting don't reflect that.

150428-tories
Despite the Ashcroft poll, spreads are broadly unchanged

I have avoided commenting on the polls, as I think they are struggling the impact of the minor parties on the two majors and voter loyalty to incumbent Liberal Democrat MPs is impossible to predict. This is the reason I prefer to 'follow the money', monitoring the odds and spread betting instead.

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I made an exception last night, as the latest Ashcroft poll shows what might develop into a last-minute surge by the Tories. These polls are the most detailed, and certainly the pick of the bunch. They have also consistently shown the Tories to be in trouble:

Conservative36%(+2) probably from Ukip
Labour30%(unchanged)
LibDem9%(-1)
Ukip11%(-2)
Green7%(+3) probably from the LibDems

(36% is enough for the Tories to win 300 seats, and a majority in coalition with the LibDems).

In an aside, Ashcroft says that Mark Reckless will lose Rochester and Strood. Farage is looking a bit iffy in Thanet, too.This morning, despite the poll, spreads are broadly unchanged (Tories and Labour both slightly easier, SNP +2). As for the betting odds:

No overall majority:1/14perceived certainty
Most seats:Conservative1/4near certainty
Labour14/5unlikely
Minority government:Led by Cameron5/1
Led by Miliband13/8favourite
Coalition:Conservative/LibDem3/1second fvourite
Labour/LibDem5/1not with the SNP
Overall majority:Conservative7/1
Labour50/1

So nothing you didn't know already it's still knife-edge stuff. Not even US political prognosticating superstar Nate Silver is forecasting an outright winner.

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