Election 2015: is a Tory surge coming? The bookies don’t yet think so
The latest Ashcroft poll shows what looks like a surge for the Tories, says Adrian Sykes. But the bookies and spread betting don't reflect that.
I have avoided commenting on the polls, as I think they are struggling the impact of the minor parties on the two majors and voter loyalty to incumbent Liberal Democrat MPs is impossible to predict. This is the reason I prefer to 'follow the money', monitoring the odds and spread betting instead.
I made an exception last night, as the latest Ashcroft poll shows what might develop into a last-minute surge by the Tories. These polls are the most detailed, and certainly the pick of the bunch. They have also consistently shown the Tories to be in trouble:
|Conservative||36%||(+2) probably from Ukip|
|Green||7%||(+3) probably from the LibDems|
(36% is enough for the Tories to win 300 seats, and a majority in coalition with the LibDems).
In an aside, Ashcroft says that Mark Reckless will lose Rochester and Strood. Farage is looking a bit iffy in Thanet, too.This morning, despite the poll, spreads are broadly unchanged (Tories and Labour both slightly easier, SNP +2). As for the betting odds:
|No overall majority:||1/14||perceived certainty|
|Most seats:||Conservative||1/4||near certainty|
|Minority government:||Led by Cameron||5/1|
|Led by Miliband||13/8||favourite|
|Labour/LibDem||5/1||not with the SNP|
So nothing you didn't know already it's still knife-edge stuff. Not even US political prognosticating superstar Nate Silver is forecasting an outright winner.