UK interest rates held at 4.25%

The Bank of England voted to hold interest rates at their current level by a 6-3 majority at its June meeting

Summary

  • The Bank of England voted to hold rates at their current level of 4.25% today, mirroring the decision made by the US Federal Reserve yesterday.
  • The decision was expected. Markets and economists had all but ruled out a cut, as mixed signals in the global economy meant a wait-and-see approach looked more likely.
  • The Bank has stuck to a quarterly pace of cuts so far. The last reduction came last month in May.
  • Inflation remains high, with the headline figure coming in at 3.4% in May's report, published yesterday.
  • The conflict between Israel and Iran has also pushed oil prices up in recent days, which could put upward pressure on energy prices and inflation going forward.
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Good afternoon and welcome to our live report. The Bank of England will announce its next interest rate decision at midday tomorrow.

Bank of England in spring

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Inflation still coming in hot

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) published May’s inflation report this morning. Prices rose by 3.4% on an annual basis.

This was down from April’s official reading of 3.5%, but this figure was artificially inflated by a car tax blunder from the Department for Transport, meaning it should have been 3.4%. The ONS decided not to revise April’s report, in line with its usual policy.

A reading of 3.4% is still fairly hot. Remember that the Bank of England’s target is 2%.

Couple at the supermarket

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“Gradual and careful” approach to interest rate cuts

In recent months, the Bank of England has repeatedly said that it plans to take a “gradual and careful” approach to monetary policy easing. Many have interpreted this as meaning a quarterly pace of rate cuts. This is the pattern we have seen so far:

  • August 2024: The first cut this cycle brought rates from 5.25% to 5%.
  • November 2024: Rates reduced from 5% to 4.75%.
  • February 2025: Rates cut to 4.5%
  • May 2025: Rates cut to 4.25%.

The Bank of England has been clear that it doesn’t have any set path in mind, and that it assesses the data on a meeting-by-meeting basis when making decisions.

Pace of rate cuts “now shrouded in a lot more uncertainty”

Speaking to MPs earlier this month, the Bank of England’s governor Andrew Bailey said that the pace and extent of cuts was “now shrouded in a lot more uncertainty” thanks to global trade disruption.

The Bank is currently of the opinion that Donald Trump’s tariffs will reduce global economic activity, lowering export prices and inflation – but Bailey added that this view is “open to interpretation”. If tariffs disrupt supply chains, for example, that could prove inflationary.

“While it’s unlikely to result in rate hikes, a sustained and/or permanent increase in oil prices could push inflation expectations higher (albeit temporarily). This could open the door to a slower removal of policy restriction going forward,” said Sanjay Raja, chief UK economist at Deutsche Bank.

Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey

Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey

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How many further rate cuts this year?

A “hold” decision is widely expected tomorrow, but how many interest rate cuts can we expect later this year? Experts are divided.

  • Research provider Pantheon Macroeconomics expects just one more cut this year, potentially coming in August. It previously thought November, but has brought this date forward after the labour market showed signs of weakening in the latest ONS report. This would bring the base rate to 4%.
  • Financial institution ING is expecting quarterly cuts, which would mean two more cuts this year. Its economists think they will come in August and November. This would bring the base rate to 3.75%.
  • Deutsche Bank thinks we will see three more cuts, coming in August, November and December. Its economists think weaker pay data could allow the MPC to speed up the pace of rate cuts in the final quarter of the year. This would bring the base rate to 3.5%.

“A smorgasbord of mixed messages”

As well as maintaining price stability, the Bank of England is responsible for supporting growth and employment. This is a tricky tightrope to walk. Bringing inflation under control means keeping interest rates high – but if you do this for too long, households and businesses feel the pinch.

Economists often talk about achieving a “soft landing”. This is when inflation and growth slow without dipping into recession. Timing interest rate cuts perfectly can help achieve this, but it is no easy feat.

Laith Khalaf, head of investment analysis at platform AJ Bell, said the Bank of England currently has “a smorgasbord of mixed messages” to distil. Inflation remains high, tariffs are causing trade disruption, oil prices have spiked as a result of tensions in the Middle East, and growth slumped in April, with GDP dropping 0.3% on a monthly basis.

“Little wonder that at the last meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), the committee was split in terms of the direction of monetary policy. Markets are currently pricing in only a 10% chance of a rate cut, with the consensus landing on a rate cut in August or September, and then another one by year end,” he said.

City of London

The economy slumped by 0.3% in April, as business tax changes and Donald Trump's tariffs took their toll.

(Image credit: Christine Phillips via Getty Images)

What does it all mean for Rachel Reeves?

The Bank of England sets interest rates independently from the government. This means the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, is not allowed to get involved. That won’t stop her from hoping for further rate cuts though – and sooner rather than later.

When interest rates are high, it is more expensive for the government to borrow money. High borrowing costs and weak economic growth erode the chancellor’s fiscal headroom, otherwise known as the amount of leeway Reeves has to increase spending or cut taxes.

As Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), has pointed out, Reeves’s fiscal rules are currently being met by a “gnat’s whisker”. If gilt yields rise any further or growth expectations weaken, further tax hikes or spending cuts will be necessary.

Although the base rate isn’t expected to rise at any point in the near future, gilt yields (which represent the cost of government borrowing) could go up if markets start pricing in a “higher for longer” inflation scenario and slower base rate cuts.

Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, standing outside 11 Downing Street

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Would an interest rate “hold” be good news for savers?

That said, part of the reason the Bank of England is expected to hold interest rates at their current level is that inflation is proving persistent – and inflation is a saver’s worst nightmare. Savers may now be feeling the pinch.

“Savers continue to be hit by the handful of base rate cuts over the past year as all the top rates for non-ISAs have dropped compared to the market leaders in June 2024,” said Caitlyn Eastell, spokesperson at comparison site Moneyfacts. “Those consumers with a variable-rate account or who have only fixed for a year may now be feeling the pressure.”

Plant growing out of green piggy bank

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What about prospective homeowners shopping for a mortgage?

Prospective homeowners and those looking to remortgage may be disappointed to hear rates are likely to remain on hold tomorrow. However, it is worth pointing out that fixed-rate mortgage deals are priced based on a range of factors, including swap rates. This means they don’t always move in tandem with the base rate.

David Hollingworth, associate director at L&C Mortgages, said mortgage rates have been hard to call in recent weeks. “After a period of fixed rate increases, there’s now a more mixed [picture] with some lenders cutting deals again slightly, as markets find their level,” he said this morning.

“Overall, it looks as though fixed rates may bobble up and down without any significant trend or shift either way. That said there’s clearly a great deal of uncertainty as global events unfold. Borrowers would be better to focus on getting the best available rates and keeping them under review, rather than second guessing the next move in interest rates.”

Remember: if you have a fixed-rate mortgage and are in the middle of your deal, you won’t see any change in your repayments until the fixed period ends, no matter what happens with interest rates tomorrow. The changes we have highlighted here refer to new deals currently available on the market.

Across the pond: will the Fed cut US rates today?

“The economy is slowing gradually for now, so policymakers will conclude they can wait for more information on the size, speed and breadth of the uplift to consumer prices from the current tariffs, as well on whether extra tariffs will be imposed this summer,” said Samuel Tombs, Pantheon’s chief US economist.

A hold decision will prove unpopular with US president Donald Trump, who has repeatedly criticised Fed chairman Jerome Powell. Trump believes rates are being cut too slowly. In the lead-up to the presidential election, he promised to relieve pressure on US households by reducing borrowing costs – a decision that lies outside of the president’s power.

US Federal Reserve

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How do oil prices impact interest rates?

Oil prices have risen in recent days as tensions escalate in the Middle East – but what have oil prices got to do with interest rates?

“In a ‘normal’ world, monetary policy would likely see very little reaction to a shift in energy prices. Why? The lags in monetary policy make it a less-optimal tool in dealing with any near-term inflation increase,” said Sanjay Raja, Deutsche Bank’s chief UK economist.

“But we may not be in a ‘normal’ world. Inflation expectations, while receding, remain elevated.”

Raja points out that inflation is still significantly above the Bank of England’s 2% target, with ongoing fears about “second-round effects”. It could push some MPC members to take a more guarded view when it comes to the pace of future rate cuts, in his view.

Oil rigs with financial charts superimposed over the top

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Can we expect further tariff turmoil next month?

Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs unleashed chaos in markets at the start of April, before the president backpedalled on the most extreme measures, announcing a 90-day pause. Those 90 days will soon be up.

“At the moment it feels like geopolitical tension is breeding,” said Danni Hewson, head of financial analysis at AJ Bell. “While everyone may be clamouring for some jam now in the form of interest rate cuts, central banks must take a more emotionally detached view on the longer-term path of the economy and inflation.”

That concludes our preview analysis for today, but we will be back with more live coverage in the lead-up to the Bank of England’s midday announcement tomorrow. Join us then.

Good morning and welcome back to our live report. The Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision at midday. To recap, here is what is expected:

  • The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to hold rates at their current level: 4.25%.
  • Inflation remained high at 3.4% in May’s report, published yesterday, and geopolitical risks are ramping up again. Against this backdrop, the Bank is likely to take a wait-and-see approach.
  • Most economists are expecting at least one more rate cut later this year as the economy slows. GDP slumped by 0.3% in April as higher business taxes and Donald Trump’s tariffs took their toll. Wage growth is still high but is showing signs of slowing. Likewise, unemployment remains low but is starting to pick up.
  • Deutsche Bank thinks the MPC will “open the door to an August rate cut” in its meeting minutes and summary today.

Bank of England

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Fed decides to hold – despite pressure from Trump

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) held rates for the fourth time at its meeting yesterday, despite pressure from Donald Trump to lower them. Fed chairman Jerome Powell said tariffs were “likely to push up prices and weigh on economic activity”. He added that it was not yet clear whether tariffs would have a short-term impact on inflation, or whether it would prove more persistent. As a result, the Fed is taking a wait-and-see approach.

“For the time being, we are well positioned to wait to learn more about the likely course of the economy before considering any adjustments to our policy stance,” Powell said.

Fed chairman Jerome Powell

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Markets likely to be nonplussed by BoE decision

The FTSE 100 opened around 0.4% lower this morning, but it has little to do with the upcoming Bank of England decision. A hold is widely anticipated and has long been priced in. Investors’ minds are elsewhere.

“Markets have plenty of other things to focus on, namely the Middle East conflict which shows no sign of easing. Equity markets were in the red across Europe and most of Asia as investors were spooked by the escalating conflict and the negative read-across to inflation,” said Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell.

City of London skyline

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“Sticky inflation” could impact mortgage rates

“Sticky inflation and current global pressures can result in a more cautious approach to rate setting, and such uncertainty can impact swap rates,” explains Rachel Springall, finance expert at comparison site Moneyfacts. Swap rates are the financial instruments which underpin mortgage pricing.

But remember: whatever happens with the Bank of England, it could be worth shopping around several months before your current deal expires. Lenders often allow you to lock in a new deal up to six months in advance. Often, you then have the flexibility to ditch the deal before it starts, if a better rate appears in the meantime – although make sure you read the small print, as you might lose any fees you paid.

Interest rate decision due at midday

There are less than 10 minutes to go until the Bank of England announces its interest rate decision. To recap: rates are expected to be held at 4.25%. Stick with us. We’ll bring you the news as it breaks before delving into some analysis. We’ll also dig into the summary documents published by the Bank to give you a flavour of what was discussed, how each member of the committee voted, and where rates might be heading over the rest of 2025.

Bank of England

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BREAKING: Bank of England holds rates

It comes after inflation remained high at 3.4% in May’s report, published yesterday.

The Monetary Policy Committee is still divided

This echoes what we have seen in previous meetings – a divided MPC.

Dave Ramsden, deputy governor for markets and banking at the Bank of England

Dave Ramsden, deputy governor for markets and banking at the Bank of England

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"Gradual and careful" message remains

MPC took note of weaker labour market conditions

People walk across London Bridge from the City of London

(Image credit: Photo by Kristian Buus/In Pictures via Getty Images)

"Global uncertainty remains elevated"

Impact of Trump's tariffs is "evident"

A cargo ship loads and unloads goods

(Image credit: Photo by Costfoto/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

"The surprise? A third dissenter"

"It's not all dovish"

What does today's decision mean for your personal finances?

Annuity rates remain attractive

"Today’s interest rate hold will contribute to a sustained period of success in the annuity market, said Helen Morrissey, head of retirement analysis at Hargreaves Lansdown. "The latest data from our annuity search engine shows a 65-year-old with a £100,000 pension can now get up to £7,900 per year from a single-life level annuity with a five-year guarantee."

"After a period in the doldrums, the market has roared back to life off the back of interest rate increases and soaring gilt yields. While incomes haven’t continued to rise at the rate they did a couple of years ago, the market is delivering real value for retirees on the hunt for a guaranteed income," she added.

If you are thinking about buying an annuity, make sure you shop around to secure the best rates on the market. Recent analysis suggests the cost of not shopping around can come to a whopping £8,000 over a period of 20 years – a large amount of money for a small amount of research.

Young pensioners on a bike ride

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1.6 million mortgages due to expire in 2025

Around 1.6 million households will see their fixed-rate mortgage deal come to an end this year, according to trade association UK Finance. Those coming off a relatively cheap deal agreed before rates started rising in 2021 could see their monthly repayments jump significantly. They will be hoping that further base rate cuts materialise – and sooner rather than later.

"For existing borrowers rolling off cheap five and 10-year fixed-rate deals, the financial hit from higher mortgage costs will hurt," said Alice Haine, personal finance analyst at investment platform Bestinvest. "This is where a reputable independent mortgage broker can be worth their weight in gold, helping to source the right solution for a borrower’s unique needs."

This means a five-year fix is now only slightly more expensive than a two-year fix – a consequence of rates coming down and markets pricing in further interest rate cuts over the months to come.

"However painful an increase, those looking to refinance should not delay locking in a fresh deal, otherwise they risk reverting to their lender’s standard variable rate (SVR). The average SVR may have dropped from its peak of 8.19% (end of 2023), but it remains high at 7.48%," said Haine.

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Shop around for an inflation-busting savings account

The average easy-access savings rate is now 2.67%, which is lower than inflation (3.4%). If you are earning a rate this low, your savings are being eroded. Shop around for an inflation-busting rate. The top accounts currently offer up to 5% AER – although make sure to read the terms and conditions carefully, as some of the most attractive-looking deals include a temporary bonus rate.

Today’s pause also offers a good opportunity for savers to lock in higher rates while they stick around. If you have a pot of cash that you are happy to put away for a year or so, consider opening a fixed-rate account. That way, you will be protected against future rate cuts.

Piggy bank being lifted up by a balloon.

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What is stagflation – and are we heading for it?

The OECD think-tank has forecast a growth rate of 1.3% for the UK in 2025 and 1% in 2026 – far from awe inspiring but also fairly consistent with what we have seen in recent years. The economy grew by 1.1% in 2024, for example.

Thank you for joining us – and upcoming MPC dates

  • 7 August
  • 18 September
  • 6 November
  • 18 December

Economists are divided on how many more rate cuts we will see over the course of these meetings.

Research provider Pantheon Macroeconomics is expecting just one more, potentially coming in August. Financial institution ING thinks we will see two more, coming in August and November.

Deutsche Bank is more bullish in its outlook – making it a bit of an outlier – and thinks there could be three, with the pace of policy easing picking up later in the year if pay growth continues to slow.

Bank of England with traffic in foreground and blurred lights from timelapse photo.

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