The Bank of England meets several times a year to set the base rate, a mechanism that influences interest rates on everything from mortgages to savings accounts.
Until recently, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) was holding interest rates at a 16-year high in a bid to combat inflation. On 1 August, it finally voted to reduce the base rate to 5% after making significant progress with inflation. A second cut followed on 7 November, taking the base rate to 4.75%.
Inflation peaked at 11.1% in October 2022 but has since slowed significantly. The latest inflation report showed that prices rose by 1.7% on an annual basis in September, coming in below the Bank of England’s target for the first time in over three years.
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“Disinflation – and the UK is part of this – has actually taken place faster than we expected,” the governor of the Bank of England recently told the Institute of International Finance.
Those hoping for another interest rate cut before the end of the year might be left disappointed, though. There is one MPC meeting left this year, taking place in December, but markets have turned bearish on the prospect of a cut ever since the Budget.
It comes after the Office for Budget Responsibility said the chancellor’s policies could increase inflation by around 0.4% at the peak.
We look at when the MPC is next due to meet and where interest rates are heading.
Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee meeting dates
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee meets eight times a year to set the base rate. This takes place roughly every six weeks. The meetings usually happen the day before the interest rate announcement.
The first seven announcements of the year took place on 1 February, 21 March, 9 May, 20 June, 1 August, 19 September and 7 November. The final meeting of the year will take place on 19 December.
What is the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee?
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee is responsible for setting the base rate, also known as ‘Bank Rate’.
The base rate is the most important interest rate in the UK, as the interest you earn on your savings or that you repay on your loans is influenced, set and adjusted based on this figure.
The committee is made up of nine members, chaired by governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey. Four of the committee members are external experts, “appointed to make sure that the MPC benefits from thinking and expertise from outside of the Bank of England”, the Bank explains.
During each meeting, the committee votes on the rate-setting decision.
Bank of England base rate forecast
Another rate cut in December looks unlikely, based on market expectations. This means interest rates will probably end the year at 4.75%.
Market participants have dialled down their bets after watching the Budget play out. Reeves announced £70bn in spending policies – an attempt to boost investment in the UK economy and prevent department cuts.
“The increases in government spending and investment announced in the Budget are taking place at a time when the economy is already operating close to capacity,” says Paul Dales, chief UK economist at the consultancy Capital Economics.
“In that situation, the faster rates of GDP growth we expect in light of the Budget will probably spill over into larger rises in prices than we previously thought,” he told MoneyWeek.
The team at Capital Economics was previously expecting inflation to average out at 2.6% in 2025 and 2% in 2026. They have now adjusted their inflation forecasts upwards slightly to 2.8% and 2.1% respectively.
Reeves also unveiled £40bn in tax hikes in her fiscal statement, with a large part of this coming from an increase to employer National Insurance contributions. Commentators have said this could contribute to higher inflation if businesses pass the costs on to consumers by putting their prices up.
The National Living Wage is also set to rise by 6.7% from April. This is good news for employees but will contribute to rising costs for some businesses. It could also contribute towards wage growth staying high. Wage growth is another driver of inflation.
Even before the Budget, onlookers were expecting less positive inflation news towards the end of the year. The rate of inflation is expected to rise in October’s report (due on 20 November), after average household energy prices went up by 10% on 1 October.
In the latest poll from news agency Reuters, almost two-thirds of economists (46 out of 72) said they expect rates to be kept on hold at the meeting in December.
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