When is the next Bank of England base rate meeting?

Photograph of Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey at a press conference.

(Image credit: Hollie Adams / Bloomberg via Getty Images)

last updated 12 September 2024

The Bank of England meets several times a year to set the base rate, a mechanism that influences interest rates on everything from mortgages to savings accounts.

For more than 18 months from December 2021, the Bank was in a cycle of hiking interest rates in a bid to combat inflation, but the MPC finally pivoted on 1 August, cutting rates for the first time since 2020.

It came after several months of slowing inflation. Inflation peaked at 11.1% in October 2022 but, by May and June this year, the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) had returned to the Bank of England’s 2% target.

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The battle against inflation is not yet over, though, with wage growth and services inflation remaining high. What’s more, after inching up to 2.2% in July, inflation is expected to rise further this Autumn thanks to higher energy prices.

Although the first interest rate cut has now taken place, the Bank of England has made it clear that it will tread a cautious path ahead. Financial markets are pricing in around two more cuts before the end of the year, but the latest poll from Reuters suggests most economists only expect one.

We look at when the MPC is next due to meet and where interest rates are heading.

Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee meeting dates

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee meets eight times a year to set the base rate. This takes place roughly every six weeks. The meetings usually happen the day before the interest rate announcement.

The first, second, third, fourth and fifth interest rate announcements of the year took place on 1 February, 21 March, 9 May, 20 June and 1 August. The remaining three meetings will take place on the following dates:

19 September
7 November
19 December

What is the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee?

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee is responsible for setting the base rate, also known as ‘Bank Rate’.

The base rate is the most important interest rate in the UK, as the interest you earn on your savings or that you repay on your loans is influenced, set and adjusted based on this figure.

The committee is made up of nine members, chaired by governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey. Four of the committee members are external experts, “appointed to make sure that the MPC benefits from thinking and expertise from outside of the Bank of England”, the Bank explains.

During each meeting, the committee votes on the rate-setting decision.

Bank of England base rate forecast

“The public should remember the adage of rates rising like a rocket and falling like a feather,” says Laura Suter, director of personal finance at AJ Bell. In her view, the Bank of England is likely to “make one more small cut this year and take a wait-and-see approach each time”.

The slight increase in the rate of inflation to 2.2% in July (announced on 14 August) was widely anticipated and isn’t a major cause for concern when it comes to interest rates. Economists were actually expecting the figure to come in at 2.3% as, although energy prices fell during the period, they fell at a slower rate than a year ago.

However, energy prices are set to rise again later this year, with the Ofgem price cap surging 10% from October. This could increase the headline rate of inflation further. What’s more, wage growth and services inflation are still higher than the Bank of England would like at 5.1% and 5.2% respectively.

“[MPC members] are still likely to be wary about the risks that elevated wage bills could be passed on in the form of higher prices for goods and services,” says Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown. Likewise, the services sector accounts for around 80% of the UK’s economic output, so is an important measure of how embedded inflation is in the domestic economy.

The latest GDP figures suggest high interest rates could be having a negative impact on growth, with the UK economy flatlining in June and July. However, it is unlikely to be enough to move the dial for the Bank of England, particularly given that other economic indicators are proving robust. The rate of unemployment fell in the most recent quarter, for example.

With all these factors considered, a second rate cut looks unlikely in September. Financial markets are currently pricing in a 75% chance that rates stay on hold at the upcoming meeting. Economists think the chances are even slimmer – only three out of the sixty polled by Reuters expect a cut this time around.

Katie has a background in investment writing and is interested in everything to do with personal finance, politics, and investing. She enjoys translating complex topics into easy-to-understand stories to help people make the most of their money.

Katie believes investing shouldn’t be complicated, and that demystifying it can help normal people improve their lives.

Before joining the MoneyWeek team, Katie worked as an investment writer at Invesco, a global asset management firm. She joined the company as a graduate in 2019. While there, she wrote about the global economy, bond markets, alternative investments and UK equities.

Katie loves writing and studied English at the University of Cambridge. Outside of work, she enjoys going to the theatre, reading novels, travelling and trying new restaurants with friends.