The Bank of England meets several times a year to set the base rate, a mechanism that influences interest rates on everything from mortgages to savings accounts.
On 20 March, the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to hold rates at 4.5%. The Bank has now cut the base rate three times from its recent peak of 5.25% – first in August, then in November, and more recently in February.
After both February and March's meetings, the MPC said it plans to take a “gradual and careful” approach to future monetary policy easing, which some have interpreted as quarterly rate cuts.
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The next MPC meeting will take place in around six weeks’ time, with a decision being announced on 8 May.
“Looking ahead, traders assign a 66% probability to a cut at the May meeting and expect Bank Rate to end the year around 4%,” said Rob Clarry, investment strategist at wealth management firm Evelyn Partners.
Economists are slightly more bullish, with many forecasting three cuts before the end of the year. That said, the MPC has adopted a slightly more hawkish tone in recent weeks with inflation forecast to hit 3.75% by the third quarter.
Only one committee member (Swati Dhingra) voted to cut rates in March, resulting in an 8-1 split. Most commentators had forecast a ‘cut’ vote from Catherine Mann too, which would have taken the vote to 7-2.
Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee meeting dates
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee meets eight times a year to set the base rate. This takes place roughly every six weeks. The meetings usually happen the day before the interest rate announcement.
Remaining MPC meeting dates in 2025
- 8 May
- 19 June
- 7 August
- 18 September
- 6 November
- 18 December
What is the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee?
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee is responsible for setting the base rate, also known as ‘Bank Rate’.
The base rate is the most important interest rate in the UK, as the interest you earn on your savings or that you repay on loans is influenced, set and adjusted based on this figure.
The committee is made up of nine members, chaired by governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey. Four of the committee members are external experts, “appointed to make sure that the MPC benefits from thinking and expertise from outside of the Bank of England”, the Bank explains.
During each meeting, the committee votes on the rate-setting decision.
Bank of England base rate forecast
The economists at European bank ING think the Bank of England will cut rates by a further 75 basis points this year, bringing the base rate to 3.75%. They then expect 50 basis points of cuts in 2026, taking it to 3.25%.
Capital Economics is forecasting something similar. They are expecting three more rate cuts this year and one in early 2025, taking the base rate to 3.5%.
Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank is forecasting four more cuts in 2025, but says its “conviction levels” have fallen since February. It is perhaps unsurprising given that inflation is on the rise again, hitting 3% in January. Wage growth also remains stubborn.
“A pause in the rate cutting cycle is gaining traction… particularly between May and November, when CPI is expected to push as high as 4% year-on-year,” said Sanjay Raja, Deutsche Bank’s chief UK economist.
“That said, we still see a path towards a terminal rate nearer 3.25% by early next year, as the labour market continues to cool, tariff impacts bite, and pay settlements slow to target-consistent levels of 3%,” he added.
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