The Bank of England meets eight times a year to set the base rate, a mechanism that influences interest rates on everything from mortgages to savings accounts.
The Bank’s next rate decision will be announced on 19 June. A cut currently looks unlikely at that meeting, despite growth fears ramping up.
At its last meeting on 8 May, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) cut rates from 4.5% to 4.25%, but sounded a more cautious tone than analysts were expecting.
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The MPC was fairly divided. Five members voted to cut the base rate by 25 basis points, two voted to cut it by 50 basis points, and two voted to hold rates at 4.5%.
Prior to the meeting, most analysts had been forecasting a unanimous decision to cut with the only question mark being the scale of the reduction.
“Investors were primed for signals that the committee was preparing to pivot, and ahead of the meeting, two further cuts were priced at the next three meetings. That would mark a deviation from the once-per-quarter rhythm of rate cuts the BoE has so far employed,” said James Smith, developed markets economist at financial institution ING.
“Instead, the Bank stuck to its previous script, simply reiterating that future cuts are likely to be ‘gradual and careful’. Changing that language would have heavily implied the Bank was prepared to cut rates again in June, something we suspect it’s reluctant to do – or at least pre-commit to – at this stage.”
Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee meeting dates
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee meets roughly every six weeks to set the base rate. The meetings usually happen the day before the interest rate announcement.
Dates for upcoming interest rate announcements
- 19 June
- 7 August
- 18 September
- 6 November
- 18 December
What is the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee?
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee is responsible for setting the base rate, also known as ‘Bank Rate’.
The base rate is the most important interest rate in the UK, as the interest you earn on your savings or that you repay on loans is influenced, set and adjusted based on this figure.
The committee is made up of nine members, chaired by governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey. Four of the committee members are external experts, “appointed to make sure that the MPC benefits from thinking and expertise from outside of the Bank of England”, the Bank explains.
During each meeting, the committee votes on the rate-setting decision.
Bank of England base rate forecast
Most economists expect two more rate cuts before the end of the year, taking the base rate to 3.75%.
Although growth fears have been ramping up in response to Donald Trump’s tariffs, back-to-back cuts in May and June now look unlikely. The MPC is more likely to stick to a quarterly pace of rate cuts.
Inflation has slowed significantly from its peak of 11.1% in October 2022, coming in at 2.6% in the latest report in March. However, it is expected to hit 3.5% by the third quarter thanks to previous increases in energy prices.
The MPC believes this increase will prove transitory, but is “alert to a range of risks in both directions,” according to governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey.
“We need to watch very carefully for any signs that the near-term increase in inflation could lead to additional second-round effects on wage and price-setting, even if that is not our central assumption, but also for any further weakening in demand which would reduce inflationary pressure,” he said.
The economists at research provider Pantheon Macroeconomics believe inflation will be more persistent than the MPC has forecast.
“We had thought the MPC would buy some ‘insurance’ with a couple of quick rate cuts [in May and June] before being forced by the data to stand pat,” said Robert Wood, chief UK economist at the firm.
“The MPC minutes, as it turns out, suggest that rate-setters are more cautious than we thought, prioritising squeezing inflation.”
Pantheon has adjusted its interest rate forecast as a result. While it is still expecting two more cuts this year, it now believes they will come in August and November rather than June and November.
ING is also forecasting quarterly cuts, with the next move coming in August, however it hasn’t fully ruled out the Bank of England “moving faster at some point”.
Deutsche Bank is more dovish in its outlook, forecasting three more cuts before the end of the year.
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