Advertisement

Betting on politics: don't put your money on the SNP

Scottish voters are strongly opposed to another independence referendum, says Matthew Partridge. That opens up a few tasty punts against he SNP.

Nicola Sturgeon Launches The SNP's Election Manifesto
SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon

With just a fortnight to go in the UK election campaign, several things are starting to become clear. Firstly, the Liberal Democrats are going nowhere. Next, Labour is slowly but surely closing the gap with the Conservatives, a process that may be speeded up by recent revelations regarding trade discussions with the US. Thirdly, the Scottish National Party (SNP) surge is likely to be modest, perhaps because Scottish voters are strongly opposed to another independence referendum.

Advertisement - Article continues below

I therefore suggest that you bet on the SNP getting under 45.5 seats (45 seats or less) with Ladbrokes at 5/6 (54.5). I'd also take Ladbrokes' bet on them getting either 30-39 seats at 5/1 (16.7%) and 40-48 seats at 4/7 (63.6%), for combined odds of 80.3%. In this case I'd put £2.08 on them getting 30-39 and, £7.92 on them getting 40-48.

In terms of individual constituencies, I'm going to bet that Labour will hold Eltham (where I live). This seat used to be pretty marginal, but has been moving towards Labour in recent years and is now down to 88th on the Conservatives' list of targets. I'd therefore take Paddy Power's 8/11 (57.9%) on Labour holding on.

Finally, I'm also going to tip Labour in Bermondsey and Old Southwark at 8/13 with Bet 365 (56.5%). At the start of the campaign many pundits assumed this would be an easy Lib Dem pickup, since Simon Hughes held it until the 2015 election. The truth is that this is now a solid Labour area, as shown by Neil Coyle's majority of nearly 13,000 at the last election.

Advertisement
Advertisement

Recommended

How the fear of death affects our investment processes
Investment strategy

How the fear of death affects our investment processes

Many of our investment decisions are driven by one simple fact: the knowledge that, one day, we will be dead. Here, in an extract from his new book, J…
2 Jan 2020
The good investments of the 2010s – and the bad
Stockmarkets

The good investments of the 2010s – and the bad

John Stepek takes a look back on which investments did well and which did badly in the decade that’s about to come to an end.
26 Dec 2019
How to plan for the general election result
Stockmarkets

How to plan for the general election result

John Stepek looks at the potential outcomes of Thursday’s general election and explains what each would mean for markets – and what you can do to prot…
10 Dec 2019
Betting on politics: who will get the most seats in the general election?
UK Economy

Betting on politics: who will get the most seats in the general election?

Matthew Partridge casts his eyes over the odds on which party will get most seats in December's general election.
1 Nov 2019

Most Popular

House price crash: UK property prices are falling – so where next?
Property

House price crash: UK property prices are falling – so where next?

With UK property prices falling for the first time in eight years, are we about to see a house price crash? John Stepek looks at what’s behind the sli…
2 Jul 2020
How “support” and “resistance” can help you spot trading opportunities
Sponsored

How “support” and “resistance” can help you spot trading opportunities

Technical analysis can help traders manage risk and decide where to enter and exit a trade. One simple form of technical analysis is the concept of “s…
6 Jul 2020
The end of the bond bull market and the return of inflation
Inflation

The end of the bond bull market and the return of inflation

Central bank stimulus, surging post-lockdown demand and the end of the 40-year bond bull market. It all points to inflation, says John Stepek. Here’s …
30 Jun 2020