Betting on politics: don't put your money on the SNP

Scottish voters are strongly opposed to another independence referendum, says Matthew Partridge. That opens up a few tasty punts against he SNP.

Nicola Sturgeon Launches The SNP's Election Manifesto

With just a fortnight to go in the UK election campaign, several things are starting to become clear. Firstly, the Liberal Democrats are going nowhere. Next, Labour is slowly but surely closing the gap with the Conservatives, a process that may be speeded up by recent revelations regarding trade discussions with the US. Thirdly, the Scottish National Party (SNP) surge is likely to be modest, perhaps because Scottish voters are strongly opposed to another independence referendum.

I therefore suggest that you bet on the SNP getting under 45.5 seats (45 seats or less) with Ladbrokes at 5/6 (54.5). I'd also take Ladbrokes' bet on them getting either 30-39 seats at 5/1 (16.7%) and 40-48 seats at 4/7 (63.6%), for combined odds of 80.3%. In this case I'd put £2.08 on them getting 30-39 and, £7.92 on them getting 40-48.

Subscribe to MoneyWeek

Become a smarter, better informed investor with MoneyWeek.

In terms of individual constituencies, I'm going to bet that Labour will hold Eltham (where I live). This seat used to be pretty marginal, but has been moving towards Labour in recent years and is now down to 88th on the Conservatives' list of targets. I'd therefore take Paddy Power's 8/11 (57.9%) on Labour holding on.

Finally, I'm also going to tip Labour in Bermondsey and Old Southwark at 8/13 with Bet 365 (56.5%). At the start of the campaign many pundits assumed this would be an easy Lib Dem pickup, since Simon Hughes held it until the 2015 election. The truth is that this is now a solid Labour area, as shown by Neil Coyle's majority of nearly 13,000 at the last election.



Investment strategy

How the fear of death affects our investment processes

Many of our investment decisions are driven by one simple fact: the knowledge that, one day, we will be dead. Here, in an extract from his new book, J…
2 Jan 2020

The good investments of the 2010s – and the bad

John Stepek takes a look back on which investments did well and which did badly in the decade that’s about to come to an end.
26 Dec 2019

How to plan for the general election result

John Stepek looks at the potential outcomes of Thursday’s general election and explains what each would mean for markets – and what you can do to prot…
10 Dec 2019
UK Economy

Betting on politics: who will get the most seats in the general election?

Matthew Partridge casts his eyes over the odds on which party will get most seats in December's general election.
1 Nov 2019

Most Popular


Three things matter for the UK housing market now – and “location” isn’t one of them

The UK housing market is frozen. And when it does eventually thaw out, the traditional factors that drive prices will no longer apply. The day of reck…
1 Apr 2020

What does the coronavirus crisis mean for UK house prices?

With the whole country in lockdown, the UK property market is closed for business. John Stepek looks at what that means for UK house prices, housebuil…
27 Mar 2020

Has the stockmarket hit rock bottom yet?

The world's stockmarkets continue on their wild and disorientating rollercoaster ride. Investors are still gripped by fear. So, asks John Stepek, have…
2 Apr 2020
Small business

Furlough: what does it mean and how does it affect me?

Many companies have “furloughed” employees after they have shut down because of the coronavirus. But what does furlough mean and how does the scheme w…
30 Mar 2020