Betting on politics: who will win Norway's general election?
Norway is due to go to the polls in a general election in a few months’ time. Matthew Partridge casts his eyes over the candidates and picks a favourite.


Norway is due to go to the polls in a general election in a few months’ time. With £2,009 matched on Betfair, punters expect Labour leader Jonas Gahr Støre (pictured) to emerge triumphant, giving odds of 1.18 (84.7%) on him becoming the next PM. Sitting prime minister Erna Solberg is at 4.6 (21.7%) to remain in office. Punters also suggest Labour will come top of the polls, with Smarkets putting the party at 1.68 (59.5%) to get the most votes and the Conservatives at 2.26 (44.2%).
Although a Labour victory, in terms of both the number of votes and who ends up as prime minister, is more likely than not, neither is assured. Labour does have a small lead in the polls at the moment, but the two parties are almost neck and neck – the Conservatives were in front in the first few months of the year. With Norway’s vaccination programme finally picking up some steam, it’s possible Solberg’s poll rating could bounce back, causing the Conservatives to take the lead once more.
Norway’s complicated electoral system means that the composition of the next government will depend on the performance of the smaller parties. With major divisions between the left parties over Norway’s relationship with Europe, it’s possible Støre could be unable to form a government, even if Labour does end up with a viable route to power. I therefore suggest that you bet against Støre becoming prime minister at 1.39 – equivalent to betting on him not to become PM at 3.55 (28.1%).
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE

Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Matthew graduated from the University of Durham in 2004; he then gained an MSc, followed by a PhD at the London School of Economics.
He has previously written for a wide range of publications, including the Guardian and the Economist, and also helped to run a newsletter on terrorism. He has spent time at Lehman Brothers, Citigroup and the consultancy Lombard Street Research.
Matthew is the author of Superinvestors: Lessons from the greatest investors in history, published by Harriman House, which has been translated into several languages. His second book, Investing Explained: The Accessible Guide to Building an Investment Portfolio, is published by Kogan Page.
As senior writer, he writes the shares and politics & economics pages, as well as weekly Blowing It and Great Frauds in History columns He also writes a fortnightly reviews page and trading tips, as well as regular cover stories and multi-page investment focus features.
Follow Matthew on Twitter: @DrMatthewPartri
-
House prices are falling in London but how does it compare to the rest of the UK?
Advice The capital remains the most expensive part of the UK to buy a property, but it isn’t being as badly hit by the housing market slump. Where are London house prices heading?
By Marc Shoffman Published
-
Will a Santa Rally provide festive cheer for investors this year?
News Equities often get a seasonal boost during December - will there be a Santa Rally in 2023?
By Marc Shoffman Published
-
It's time to back the yen, says Dominic Frisby
The Japanese yen has been weak for a long time, says Dominic Frisby. That may soon change.
By Dominic Frisby Published
-
What is FX trading?
Tutorials What is FX trading and can you make money from it? Rupert Hargreaves explains how it works and the risks.
By Rupert Hargreaves Last updated
-
The Burberry share price looks like a good bet
Tips The Burberry share price could be on the verge of a major upswing as the firm’s profits return to growth.
By Dr Matthew Partridge Published
-
Why you should short this satellite broadband company
Tips With an ill-considered business plan, satellite broadband company AST SpaceMobile is doomed to failure, says Matthew Partridge. Here's how to short the stock.
By Dr Matthew Partridge Published
-
It’s time to sell this stock
Tips Digital Realty’s data-storage business model is moribund, consumed by the rise of cloud computing. Here's how you could short the shares, says Matthew Partridge.
By Dr Matthew Partridge Published
-
Netflix has plenty of life in it yet – here's how to trade the shares
Tips Netflix still has plenty of scope for growth, says Matthew Partridge, and the shares are reasonably priced. Here's how to play the Netflix share price.
By Dr Matthew Partridge Published
-
Trading: Dunelm will keep growing, here's how to play it
Tips Furniture retailer Dunelm surged during the pandemic, but its shares have since fallen back. But it is well placed to take more market share from rivals, says Matthew Partridge. Here, he explains how to play the Dunelm share price.
By Dr Matthew Partridge Published
-
Ashtead – a building equipment rental firm on solid foundations
Tips The prospects for Ashtead, the building-equipment rental firm, are auspicious. Matthew Partridge explains the best way to play the share price.
By Dr Matthew Partridge Published