Norway is due to go to the polls in a general election in a few months’ time. With £2,009 matched on Betfair, punters expect Labour leader Jonas Gahr Støre (pictured) to emerge triumphant, giving odds of 1.18 (84.7%) on him becoming the next PM. Sitting prime minister Erna Solberg is at 4.6 (21.7%) to remain in office. Punters also suggest Labour will come top of the polls, with Smarkets putting the party at 1.68 (59.5%) to get the most votes and the Conservatives at 2.26 (44.2%).
Although a Labour victory, in terms of both the number of votes and who ends up as prime minister, is more likely than not, neither is assured. Labour does have a small lead in the polls at the moment, but the two parties are almost neck and neck – the Conservatives were in front in the first few months of the year. With Norway’s vaccination programme finally picking up some steam, it’s possible Solberg’s poll rating could bounce back, causing the Conservatives to take the lead once more.
Norway’s complicated electoral system means that the composition of the next government will depend on the performance of the smaller parties. With major divisions between the left parties over Norway’s relationship with Europe, it’s possible Støre could be unable to form a government, even if Labour does end up with a viable route to power. I therefore suggest that you bet against Støre becoming prime minister at 1.39 – equivalent to betting on him not to become PM at 3.55 (28.1%).
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
-
8 of the best houses for sale for around £500,000Some of the best houses for sale for around £500,000 – from a 19th-century stone farm cottage in North Yorkshire and a two-bedroom apartment in Edinburgh’s New Town to a converted Methodist chapel in Norfolk
-
What will the unravelling of US-China trade mean for the economy?What will a US-China decoupling mean for the global economy?
-
How investors can use options to navigate a turbulent worldExplainer Options can be a useful solution for investors to protect and grow their wealth in volatile times.
-
Intermediate options trading strategies: how to profit from themOptions trading strategies such as spreads, straddles and strangles can open new opportunities
-
How to trade commodities using spread betting and CFDsCommodities such as energy, metals and foods behave differently to stocks and bonds. Learning how to trade them can open up new opportunities to profit from volatility
-
0DTE options: should you bet on America's favourite?Zero-days-to-expiration (0DTE) options are popular with US traders seeking high leverage, but consistent profits by betting on short-term market direction are slim
-
Spread betting for beginners: five trading tipsA short-term trading strategy can complement a long-term investment portfolio, but it can be costly for the unwary and reckless
-
Betting on politics: the odds on Keir Starmer leavingTips Labour's recent by-election win has eased the pressure on Kier Starmer. But there's still plenty of action in the betting markets, as Matthew Partridge reports.
-
Game over at GameStop – should you join the short sellers?Tips It’s no wonder short-sellers have targeted ailing video-game retailer GameStop, says Matthew Partridge. Perhaps you should too. Here’s how to play it.
-
How my trading tips fared in 2020Tips Winning ideas included going long media group ITV and shorting electric-lorry maker Nikola
