Betting on politics: who will win Norway's general election?

Norway&#039;s Labour Party leader Jonas Gahr Store

(Image credit: © MARIT HOMMEDAL/AFP via Getty Images)

last updated 18 June 2021

Norway is due to go to the polls in a general election in a few months’ time. With £2,009 matched on Betfair, punters expect Labour leader Jonas Gahr Støre (pictured) to emerge triumphant, giving odds of 1.18 (84.7%) on him becoming the next PM. Sitting prime minister Erna Solberg is at 4.6 (21.7%) to remain in office. Punters also suggest Labour will come top of the polls, with Smarkets putting the party at 1.68 (59.5%) to get the most votes and the Conservatives at 2.26 (44.2%).

Although a Labour victory, in terms of both the number of votes and who ends up as prime minister, is more likely than not, neither is assured. Labour does have a small lead in the polls at the moment, but the two parties are almost neck and neck – the Conservatives were in front in the first few months of the year. With Norway’s vaccination programme finally picking up some steam, it’s possible Solberg’s poll rating could bounce back, causing the Conservatives to take the lead once more.

Norway’s complicated electoral system means that the composition of the next government will depend on the performance of the smaller parties. With major divisions between the left parties over Norway’s relationship with Europe, it’s possible Støre could be unable to form a government, even if Labour does end up with a viable route to power. I therefore suggest that you bet against Støre becoming prime minister at 1.39 – equivalent to betting on him not to become PM at 3.55 (28.1%).

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Matthew graduated from the University of Durham in 2004; he then gained an MSc, followed by a PhD at the London School of Economics.

He has previously written for a wide range of publications, including the Guardian and the Economist, and also helped to run a newsletter on terrorism. He has spent time at Lehman Brothers, Citigroup and the consultancy Lombard Street Research.

Matthew is the author of Superinvestors: Lessons from the greatest investors in history, published by Harriman House, which has been translated into several languages. His second book, Investing Explained: The Accessible Guide to Building an Investment Portfolio, is published by Kogan Page.

As senior writer, he writes the shares and politics & economics pages, as well as weekly Blowing It and Great Frauds in History columns He also writes a fortnightly reviews page and trading tips, as well as regular cover stories and multi-page investment focus features.

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