Betting on politics: how I've been doing

Boris Johnson’s victory in the Conservative leadership contest at the end of last month means that several of my most long-standing bets have been settled, says Matthew Partridge.

Dr Matthew Partridge
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Jo Swinson © Ian Forsyth/Getty Images

(Image credit: Jo Swinson © Ian Forsyth/Getty Images)

Boris Johnson's victory in the Conservative leadership contest at the end of last month means that several of my most long-standing bets have been settled. I backed Johnson to become the next Tory leader (along with five other candidates) in July 2017, followed by a bet on him becoming the next PM in October 2017. I also correctly advised you to bet againstJacob Rees-Mogg becoming Tory leader in February 2018 and tipped Sajid Javid and others to become the next chancellor in March 2018.

Not all of my bets paid off. Johnson got two-thirds of the vote in the final ballot of members, beating my prediction that he would only get between 40% and 60%. I also predicted back in April 2018 that Theresa May would go as Conservative leader before either Vince Cable or Jeremy Corbyn. Although she resigned in early June, Johnson didn't replace her until late July, just after Jo Swinson (pictured) won the Liberal Democrat leadership contest.

Betfair's decision to go with the later date is controversial to say the least. That said, it can argue that as a betting exchange it doesn't have a vested interest in the outcome if it had recognised the earlier date then those who had bet on Vince Cable being the first to depart would have had cause to complain.

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Still, if you had followed my advice and combined the bets you would have made a profit of 14% on the six bets. If you had treated each part of the bet separately you would have made 24.7% profit from 21 bets.

Dr Matthew Partridge
Dr Matthew Partridge
Shares editor, MoneyWeek

Matthew graduated from the University of Durham in 2004; he then gained an MSc, followed by a PhD at the London School of Economics.

He has previously written for a wide range of publications, including the Guardian and the Economist, and also helped to run a newsletter on terrorism. He has spent time at Lehman Brothers, Citigroup and the consultancy Lombard Street Research.

Matthew is the author of Superinvestors: Lessons from the greatest investors in history, published by Harriman House, which has been translated into several languages. His second book, Investing Explained: The Accessible Guide to Building an Investment Portfolio, is published by Kogan Page.

As senior writer, he writes the shares and politics & economics pages, as well as weekly Blowing It and Great Frauds in History columns He also writes a fortnightly reviews page and trading tips, as well as regular cover stories and multi-page investment focus features.

Follow Matthew on Twitter: @DrMatthewPartri

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