With the contest to become the next Conservative leader heating up, punters are pouring money into the betting exchanges. In all, £3.85m has been wagered on Betfair on the identity of the next Conservative leader; on Smarkets £1.8m has been bet. At the moment Boris Johnson is the clear favourite, at 1.66 (60.2%) on Betfair, followed by Jeremy Hunt on 7 (14.2%), Andrea Leadsom on 9.4 (10.6%) and Michael Gove on 17 (5.8%).
There are also a lot of subsidiary markets to consider. A total of £53,000 has already been wagered on Betfair on who will make the final two, for example. In this case the leading candidates are Boris Johnson at 1.26 (79.3%), Hunt at 1.4 (71.2%), Michael Gove at 3.7 (27.2%), Rory Stewart at 3.9 (25.6%), Andrea Leadsom (pictured) at 6 (16.7%) and Dominic Raab at 10 (10%). There has even been £9,469 bet on the number of MP ballots, with four currently the favourite at 2.66 (37.5%), followed by three (36.2%).
As I have already made tips on the identity of the winner in the summer of 2017, and conscious of my rule not to bet on the same contest twice, I'm going to have to stand aside. I think it unlikely that Leadsom could make the final two, but the odds may have shifted by the time this reaches you, with the first ballot due to start to take place on Thursday, so I can't formally recommend betting against her.
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
-
UK inflation expected to rise to 2.8%The rate of UK inflation is expected to rise when January’s figures are published tomorrow, partly driven by a bounce in airfares and the introduction of VAT on private school fees
-
Blow for Premium Bonds savers as NS&I announces interest rate changesNS&I has announced changes to a number of its savings products including Premium Bonds today. We explain what it means for savers.
-
Betting on politics: who will win Norway's general election?Tips Norway is due to go to the polls in a general election in a few months’ time. Matthew Partridge casts his eyes over the candidates and picks a favourite.
-
Betting on politics: don't put your money on the SNPFeatures Scottish voters are strongly opposed to another independence referendum, says Matthew Partridge. That opens up a few tasty punts against he SNP.
-
Betting on politics: two parliamentary seats worth a punt onFeatures Matthew Partridge takes a look at the odds on two seats up for grabs in the next general election.
-
Betting on politics: the North of Tyne mayorFeatures Matthew Partridge turns his attention to the forthcoming mayoral election in the North of Tyne combined area, due to take place in May.
