Betting on politics: two parliamentary seats worth a punt on

Matthew Partridge takes a look at the odds on two seats up for grabs in the next general election.

UK General Election, polling day, results, Manchester, UK - 08 Jun 2017

Jeff Smith, MP for Manchester Withington

Copyright (c) 2017 Shutterstock. No use without permission.

Even though there may not be an election until next year, Ladbrokes recently extended the range of parliamentary seats that it is taking bets on.

One obvious opportunity is Burnley, currently held by Labour's Julie Cooper. She won the seat in 2015 and retained it in 2017 with an increased majority of 6,373. Ladbrokes put a Labour victory at the next election at evens (50%), with the Conservatives at 2/1 (33.3%). The Liberal Democrats are at 4/1 (20%) and the Brexit Party is at 10/1 (9.1%).

The Lib Dems won this seat in 2010, so you'd think that they would be in with at least a chance of victory. However, since the area is heavily pro-Leave with two-thirds of the constituency voting to quit the EU, it's no surprise that they did dismally last time around, getting only 15% of the vote. While the Conservatives still have an outside chance, they will have a long road to climb to clinch a seat that is number 97 on their target list, so I'd stick with the evens on Labour.

One seat that will definitely be remaining Labour is Manchester Withington, won in 2017 by Labour's Jeff Smith (pictured). While the Liberal Democrats prevailed there in 2005 and 2010, Labour won it in 2015 and again in 2017, with a massive majority of just under 30,000 votes. It's also important to note that even at the last European election Labour beat the Lib Dems in the Greater Manchester area. Overall, then, I'd take the 1/8 (88.9%) on the Labour candidate.

Recommended

Latest issue
Investments

Latest issue

Latest issue of MoneyWeek magazine.
2 Dec 2022
The MoneyWeek Wealth Summit this Friday - everything you need to know.
Investment strategy

The MoneyWeek Wealth Summit this Friday - everything you need to know.

Andrew Van Sickle runs through the speakers and topics under discussion at the upcoming MoneyWeek Wealth Summit. Everything you need to know about inv…
24 Nov 2022
The MoneyWeek portfolio of investment trusts
Investment trusts

The MoneyWeek portfolio of investment trusts

MoneyWeek has created a low-maintenance portfolio of investment trusts.
17 Nov 2022
The cautionary tale of FTX and the future of bitcoin
Bitcoin & crypto

The cautionary tale of FTX and the future of bitcoin

The collapse of FTX has fractured the crypto market, but bitcoin will survive the fallout, argues Dominic Frisby.
16 Nov 2022

Most Popular

Is it cheaper to leave the heating on low all day?
Personal finance

Is it cheaper to leave the heating on low all day?

The weather is getting colder and energy bills are rising, but is it really cheaper to leave the heating on low all day or should you only turn it on …
1 Dec 2022
Radiator vs electric heater – which is cheaper?
Personal finance

Radiator vs electric heater – which is cheaper?

We compare the costs, pros and cons of radiators and electric heaters and see which one will help keep your energy bill as low as possible.
28 Nov 2022
State pension errors – why tens of thousands of mothers could be missing out on millions in state pension payments
State pensions

State pension errors – why tens of thousands of mothers could be missing out on millions in state pension payments

LCP launches Mothers Missing Millions campaign amid DWP state pension errors.
3 Dec 2022