Features

Betting on politics: odds on Labour’s total seats

Matthew Partridge looks at how many seats the bookies think Labour could get in the upcoming election.

With the election campaign well under way, it's a good time to look at some of the best bets on the Labour Party. Ladbrokes is offering odds on the outcome of a "Vote Match" between Labour and the Liberal Democrats. At the moment it is offering 1/6 (85.6%) on Labour getting more votes, and 7/2 (22.2%) on the Lib Dems. With the Lib Dems stuck at 15% in the polls, and with the millstone of their time in coalition with the Tories still hanging around their neck, I'd say that you should bet on Labour to win this particular contest.

In terms of vote shares, I think that Labour's absolute bottom is 25% of the vote, so I'd bet on Labour to get 25%-30% at 11/4 (26.7%), 30%-35% at 11/4 (26.7%) or 35%-40% at 5/1 (16.7%) with Paddy Power, and between 40%-50% of the vote with Ladbrokes at 10/1 (9.1%), for combined odds of 79.1%. To weight your bets properly, split a £10 betting unit by putting £3.37 on 25%-30%, £3.37 on 30%-35%, £2.11 on 35%-40% and £1.15 on 40%-50%.

At the moment Paddy Power is offering 5/6 on Labour getting more than 206.5 seats, and the same odds on them getting less. Ladbrokes is even less optimistic, suggesting putting the over/under at the slightly lower level of 204.5. I think Labour will do better as Boris Johnson will have more trouble than you'd think making inroads into the north of England. So I'm going to suggest that you take Ladbrokes' odds and back Labour to get more than 204.5 seats.

Recommended

Latest issue
Investments

Latest issue

Latest issue of MoneyWeek magazine
16 Apr 2021
Reuniting investors with lost investments and inheritances
Advertisement Feature

Reuniting investors with lost investments and inheritances

What happens when you don’t keep track of all your accounts?
9 Apr 2021
Investing in infrastructure for a post-Covid world
Advertisement Feature

Investing in infrastructure for a post-Covid world

In the wake of the pandemic, the need to tackle environmental and social challenges is even more obvious than before
8 Apr 2021
Is inflation set to return?
Advertisement Feature

Is inflation set to return?

What investors can expect from post-Covid recovery.
8 Apr 2021

Most Popular

The bitcoin bubble will burst: here’s how to play it
Bitcoin

The bitcoin bubble will burst: here’s how to play it

The cryptocurrency’s price has soared far beyond its fundamentals, says Matthew Partridge. Here, he looks at how to short bitcoin.
12 Apr 2021
What does the Coinbase listing mean for bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies?
Bitcoin

What does the Coinbase listing mean for bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies?

As the bitcoin price hit new highs, the world's biggest cryptocurrency exchange, Coinbase, listed on the stockmarket. John Stepek looks at what that m…
15 Apr 2021
Lab-grown meat: the new agricultural revolution
Soft commodities

Lab-grown meat: the new agricultural revolution

Vegan alternatives are taking off, but the future of food technology lies in lab-grown meat – cultivating steaks and burgers from animal cells, says A…
16 Apr 2021