Pensioners are set to enjoy a bumper 4.8% boost to their state pension payments next April, due to the triple lock mechanism.
It means those receiving the full new state pension will get an extra £11.05 a week, lifting their payment to £241.30, or about £12,548 a year.
Under the triple lock, the state pension increases each April by the highest of September’s Consumer Prices Index (CPI) measure of inflation, average earnings growth from May to July, or 2.5%.
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CPI inflation for September was published today (22 October). Coming in at 3.8%, it is below the earnings growth figure for May to July, which was 4.8%. This means 4.8% is the highest of the triple lock measures.
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Chancellor Rachel Reeves will likely confirm the 4.8% uplift in next month’s Autumn Budget.
Rachel Vahey, head of public policy at AJ Bell, notes that the inflation-busting increase will put “pensioners in a mood to celebrate”, but warns that the government could face more pressure to address concerns over the long-term sustainability of the triple lock.
An annual payment of £12,548 puts the full new state pension above £12,000 for the first time, and just £22 below the frozen personal allowance (£12,570).
Maike Currie, vice president of personal finance at PensionBee, comments: “While not every pensioner receives exactly £12,548, many retired pensioners on the full new state pension could find themselves paying income tax on it the following year.”
How much will the state pension rise by?
The new state pension is paid to men born on or after 6 April 1951 and women born on or after 6 April 1953.
A 4.8% increase means someone receiving the full new state pension will see their weekly payment rise from £230.25 (around £11,973 per year) to £241.30 (around £12,548 per year) in April 2026.
The basic state pension, paid to older pensioners, should increase from £176.45 a week (around £9,175 per year) to £184.90 (around £9,615).
Note that people on the basic state pension may not receive the full triple lock increase on their entire pension payment.
Helen Morrissey, head of retirement analysis at Hargreaves Lansdown, explains: “While the base payment rises in line with the triple lock, extra payments such as the additional state pension will rise in line with inflation so those elements will increase by 3.8% next year.”
Will retirees have to pay tax on their state pension?
Many pensioners already pay tax on their income. The total number of taxpayers over the state pension age is expected to rise to 8.7 million – a two million increase since 2021.
An extra 420,000 retirees will have to start paying income tax in 2025-26, according to HMRC data.
However, while these figures reflect retirees’ total income (so, including workplace and personal pensions and other income such as from buy-to-let), some of these people are paying income tax on their state pension.
This is because they may have a bigger payout due to delaying taking their state pension, or they have large amounts of additional state pension.
The pension consultancy LCP estimates that more than one in five of all pensioners have state pensions in excess of the tax-free personal allowance of £12,570, and therefore are already subject to tax.
A 4.8% boost coming up in April will likely cause more pensioners to pay tax on their state pension, and tip the new full annual payment of £12,548 dangerously close to the point where pensioners receiving that amount must pay income tax on the benefit.
Assuming the personal allowance remains frozen (and the government has said it will be until at least 2028), the full state pension will exceed the personal allowance of £12,570 by 2027/28 if the benefit increases by the minimum 2.5% in April 2027, according to AJ Bell.
Claire Trott, head of advice at St. James’s Place, points out that a tax grab on pensioners’ incomes means they won’t enjoy the full 4.8% triple lock uplift.
She explains: “A 4.8% rise is something of a double-edged sword. While the boost will be welcomed by many, it also pushes the new state pension to just below the personal allowance, and risks nudging many more people into paying tax on any other additional income they have.
“As a result, someone with other income of £10,000 will effectively only see an increase in their take-home income of just shy of 2.3% due to the additional taxation, which could result in unexpected tax bills for unassuming pensioners.”
How sustainable is the triple lock?
The government has repeatedly committed to the triple lock for the remainder of this parliament.
But an increase of 4.8% is slightly more than the 4.6% assumed by the Office for Budget Responsibility in its March 2025 “Economic and Fiscal Outlook”, and will pile more pressure on a government struggling to balance the books.
Currie at PensionBee comments: “An ageing population and increasing life expectancy, combined with the generosity of the triple lock, place significant pressure on the UK’s public finances.
“Today’s inflation figures simply underscore the fiscal tightrope chancellor Rachel Reeves must walk ahead of the Budget on 26 November.”
Morrissey at Hargreaves Lansdown adds that soaring numbers of people living into their 90s - and beyond - plus the spiralling cost of the state pension means we could see the state pension age up.
The government recently ordered a review into the state pension age. “We won’t hear back from the review for some time, but we could see further increases to the state pension age put on the table,” notes Morrissey.
“We will also see increased debate as to the long-term viability of the triple lock. The government had pledged to keep it in place for the remainder of this parliament but longer term we could see changes on the horizon.”
According to research by Standard Life, less than a third (29%) of Brits think the triple lock will still be in place when they reach retirement, with Gen X among the most sceptical: just one in five (21%) expect it to remain intact.
