Inflation is expected to come in at 4% for September as analysts brace for the highest CPI reading for 22 months, due to be released on Wednesday. Follow our live coverage for the latest news and analysis and what it means for interest rates.
Inflation is expected to come in at 4% for September, double the Bank of England’s 2% target.
The Bank of England’s monetary policy committee has been keeping a close eye on this year’s persistent inflation, with many analysts suggesting a 4% reading will eliminate any chance of another base rate cut in November.
After an expected peak in September, inflation is expected to slow down through the rest of 2025 and 2026.
Put simply, inflation is the rate at which prices increase within an economy over a given period of time.
If, for example, you bought an apple for £1 in 2024, but by 2025 the price of that apple was £1.10, the annual rate of inflation will have been 10%.
The most common way of expressing the rate of inflation is through the Consumer Prices Index (CPI), which measures the increases in price of a basket of goods, but excludes housing costs.
Measuring inflation is important because it can tell you how the spending power of your money has changed over time, and can indicate what the value of your money is in real terms.
ONS to publish September inflation reading at 7am tomorrow (22 October)
Good afternoon, and welcome to our live coverage of September’s inflation figures.
This month’s inflation release will be published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) tomorrow morning at 7am.
In the lead up to the release we’ll cover the latest estimates, analysis, and break the news tomorrow morning.
What to expect from the latest inflation reading
Analysts widely anticipate that September’s report, released tomorrow, will show a climb from August’s inflation reading of 3.8%.
The Bank of England and Oxford Economics have said a 4% CPI for September is likely. September.
If their assumptions turn out to be correct, then this puts September's figure at the highest level of inflation in 22 months. The last time inflation was this high was December 2023, when it hit 4%.
Other forecasters are a little more optimistic, but not by much. Deutsche Bank analysts expect inflation to come in at 3.9% in September.
