Katie Williams
The rate of UK inflation went up by slightly less than expected in February. The Consumer Prices Index rose by 2.8% on an annual basis, compared to 3% in January. Economists had been forecasting inflation to stay at 3%, though the Bank of England correctly predicted the fall.
A year-on-year fall in the prices of clothing helped drive this figure down. Other categories – such as furniture and household goods – recorded a slowdown in price increases.
CPI data is published once a month, with the next report (covering March) due on Wednesday, 16 April. Ten more reports will be published covering 2025.
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“Like an over-refreshed pub-goer after midnight, inflation has staggered uncertainty in a new direction again, falling from 3% to 2.8%,” said Sarah Coles, head of personal finance at Hargreaves Lansdown.
“It’s not a major shift, but it’s not what markets were expecting. It’s expected to lurch back to growth again next month, and then keep rising in April once the price rises of Awful April kick in.”
We share a list of this year’s CPI dates before delving further into the inflation outlook for 2025.
Next UK inflation figures
In the UK, the main measure of inflation is the Consumer Prices Index. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) releases this once a month. Each reading covers the previous month.
Release dates for 2025
- 16 April (covering March)
- 21 May (covering April)
- 18 June (covering May)
- 16 July (covering June)
- 20 August (covering July)
- 17 September (covering August)
- 22 October (covering September)
- 19 November (covering October)
- 17 December (covering November)
- 21 January 2026 (covering December)
What time is CPI released in the UK?
The ONS releases the latest CPI data at 7.00am once a month. You can access the data by going onto the ONS website and clicking on its release calendar. All published and upcoming releases are listed there. The report will be titled, “Consumer price inflation, UK”, followed by the month and year in question.
MoneyWeek regularly reports on the latest inflation data and what it means for you.
What is CPI and how is it calculated?
As introduced previously, CPI is the main measure of inflation used in the UK. It tells you how much the cost of living is going up or down.
It is calculated using a typical basket of household goods and services – from eggs, flour and milk to hotel costs, restaurants and air fryers – and tracking how their prices change.
The CPI basket of goods is readjusted once a year to reflect current trends in consumption. For example, VR headsets and yoga mats were added to the basket in 2025, while oven-ready gammon joints and DVD rentals were removed.
The Bank of England keeps a close eye on CPI when setting interest rates. If inflation is too high, the Bank raises interest rates to slow consumer spending and cool the economy. This works in bringing prices down because households have less money to spend when mortgage rates are high and debts are more expensive to repay.
Meanwhile, if inflation is too low, the Bank may reduce interest rates so consumers have more disposable income to spend. Due to the laws of supply and demand, this pushes prices back up.
Where is inflation heading next?
The path ahead is unlikely to be completely straight. Upward pressure from many household bill rises could add upward pressure to inflation. Energy, water, council tax, and broadband costs are set to increase at the start of ‘Awful April’.
The Ofgem price cap will increase by 6.4% in April, while water bills are soaring by as much as 47% in some parts of England.
April will also see costs rise for employers, further adding inflationary pressure to the economy. The rise in employers’ National Insurance contributions will start to be implemented, while a 6.7% increase to the National Living Wage will leave employers more stretched. Some businesses have indicated they are looking to pass these costs on to consumers by raising their prices.
Across the pond, US president Donald Trump has continued to add to global economic unrest. His threats of imposing tariffs have rattled the world economy – the UK steel industry is already suffering after Trump implemented a blanket 25% tariff on imported steel.
These increasingly aggressive tariffs from the US, the world’s biggest economy, could add to global inflationary pressures, especially if other countries respond with reciprocal tariffs and ignite a trade war.
However, reports suggest the UK could be somewhat shielded from the worst of this. On a state visit in February, prime minister Keir Starmer seemed to foster a strong relationship with Trump who dangled the prospect of a “very good” trade deal with the UK.
Domestically, there is also talk of reducing the Digital Services Tax on big American tech firms in a bid to cosy up to Trump and reduce the risk of him imposing import tariffs on the UK.
On the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg on Sunday (23 March) chancellor Rachel Reeves said: “We're in discussions at the moment around a whole range of things around tariffs with the United States.
When asked if this meant that a change to the Digital Services Tax was under consideration, she responded: “We’ve got to get the balance right, and those discussions are ongoing… we do not want to see British exporters subject to higher tariffs.”
Forecasts for the future of inflation are also varied. The Bank of England forecasts that inflation will rise to as high as 3.75% in the third quarter of 2025, before falling back down to the 2% target at the start of 2026.
The central bank is also alive to the global economic uncertainty, saying in the minutes of the latest MPC meeting: "Since the MPC’s February meeting, there had been a further increase in geopolitical and global trade policy uncertainty, and it was likely that this elevated uncertainty would persist."
As a result, "the Committee judged that the consequent risks around the near-term outlook for activity in a number of advanced economies, including the United Kingdom, remained to the downside”.
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