Daniel Hilton
UK inflation jumped by more than expected in April to 3.5% – the highest level in over a year.
A rise from March’s reading of 2.6% was widely expected after a slew of household bills went up during the month, but the figure was still higher than anticipated by economists in a poll by Reuters.
On 5 April, the ONS said that the initial inflation figure for April (3.5%) was overstated by 0.1 percentage point due to incorrect car tax data being provided by the Department for Transport.
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The newly revised data brings April’s inflation figures in line with the Bank of England’s forecast.
The latest report has all but eliminated hopes of a June interest rate cut. Rate setters will be watching future reports closely when deciding whether an August cut is still a possibility.
The next inflation figures will be published on 18 June. We share a list of all future report dates in 2025, before delving into the inflation outlook.
Next UK inflation figures
In the UK, the main measure of inflation is the Consumer Prices Index (CPI). The Office for National Statistics (ONS) releases this once a month. Each reading covers the previous month.
Release dates for 2025
- 18 June (covering May)
- 16 July (covering June)
- 20 August (covering July)
- 17 September (covering August)
- 22 October (covering September)
- 19 November (covering October)
- 17 December (covering November)
- 21 January 2026 (covering December)
What time is CPI released in the UK?
The ONS releases the latest CPI data at 7.00am once a month. You can access the data by going onto the ONS website and clicking on its release calendar. All published and upcoming releases are listed there. The report will be titled, “Consumer price inflation, UK”, followed by the month and year in question.
MoneyWeek regularly reports on the latest inflation data and what it means for you.
What is CPI and how is it calculated?
As introduced previously, CPI is the main measure of inflation used in the UK. It tells you how much the cost of living is going up or down.
It is calculated using a typical basket of household goods and services – from eggs, flour and milk to hotel costs, restaurants and air fryers – and tracking how their prices change.
The CPI basket of goods is readjusted once a year to reflect current trends in consumption. For example, VR headsets and yoga mats were added to the basket in 2025, while oven-ready gammon joints and DVD rentals were removed.
The Bank of England keeps a close eye on CPI when setting interest rates. If inflation is too high, the Bank raises interest rates to slow consumer spending and cool the economy.
This works in bringing prices down because households have less money to spend when mortgage rates are high and debts are more expensive to repay.
Meanwhile, if inflation is too low, the Bank may reduce interest rates so consumers have more disposable income to spend. Due to the laws of supply and demand, this pushes prices back up.
Where is inflation heading next?
The Bank of England believes the current resurgence in inflation will prove temporary. It thinks CPI will peak in the third quarter of this year, before falling back towards the 2% target.
That said, April’s report included big jumps in core and services inflation. Core inflation rose from 3.4% to 3.8%, while services inflation rose from 4.7% to 5.4%.
Services inflation is a particularly important metric for the Bank, as services make up around 80% of the UK economy.
Some economists think services inflation is about to get much better. Categories like car tax and airfares pushed the figure up this time around – but these don’t necessarily point to persistent inflationary pressures in the economy.
Some of the car tax increases were a one-off that will wash out of the data in 12 months’ time. Meanwhile, a late Easter pushed airfares higher this year, with index day falling in the Easter holidays when plane tickets are pricier.
Outside of these categories, financial institution ING says services inflation actually improved. “Restaurants/cafes, medical care services and rents all saw their respective rates of annual inflation fall,” said James Smith, UK economist at ING.
“We expect services inflation to fall back to the 4.5% area this summer and lower still in 2026, when things like road tax drop out of the annual comparison,” he added.
Energy bills will also slide this summer, with the Ofgem price cap set to drop 7% from 1 July.
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