UK inflation unexpectedly rose to 3.6% in June, up from the previous month’s reading of 3.4%, and still well above the Bank of England’s 2% target.
June’s reading was worse than expected, especially after inflation fell in the previous month.
The 20 basis point rise was largely caused by rising transport costs, while food inflation is at a 16-month high, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
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The next inflation figures will be published on 20 August. We share a list of all future report dates in 2025, before delving into the inflation outlook.
In the UK, the main measure of inflation is the Consumer Prices Index (CPI). The ONS releases this once a month. Each reading covers the previous month.
Release dates for 2025
- 20 August (covering July)
- 17 September (covering August)
- 22 October (covering September)
- 19 November (covering October)
- 17 December (covering November)
- 21 January 2026 (covering December)
What time is CPI released in the UK?
The ONS releases the latest CPI data at 7.00am once a month. You can access the data by going onto the ONS website and clicking on its release calendar. All published and upcoming releases are listed there. The report will be titled, “Consumer price inflation, UK”, followed by the month and year in question.
MoneyWeek regularly reports on the latest inflation data and what it means for you.
What is CPI and how is it calculated?
As introduced previously, CPI is the main measure of inflation used in the UK. It tells you how much the cost of living is going up or down.
It is calculated using a typical basket of household goods and services – from eggs, flour and milk to hotel costs, restaurants and air fryers – and tracking how their prices change.
The CPI basket of goods is readjusted once a year to reflect current trends in consumption. For example, VR headsets and yoga mats were added to the basket in 2025, while oven-ready gammon joints and DVD rentals were removed.
The Bank of England keeps a close eye on CPI when setting interest rates. If inflation is too high, the Bank raises interest rates to slow consumer spending and cool the economy.
This works in bringing prices down because households have less money to spend when mortgage rates are high and debts are more expensive to repay.
Meanwhile, if inflation is too low, the Bank may reduce interest rates so consumers have more disposable income to spend. Due to the laws of supply and demand, this pushes prices back up.
Where is inflation heading next?
While no forecasters are expecting inflation to reach the high levels seen in 2022, many economists are still expecting it to remain stubbornly high for the rest of 2025.
According to a survey of forecasters by the Treasury, the average expectation is that inflation will be around 3.2% in the fourth quarter of 2025.
However, slightly drearier expectations are held by the Bank of England who since the start of 2025 have been forecasting inflation to climb to an apex in September.
The central bank anticipates that inflation will broadly stay around 3.5% for the remainder of 2025, but peak at 3.7% in September.
Thankfully, there does seem to be a light at the end of the tunnel as the central bank expects inflation to gradually fall as we enter 2026, getting much closer to the 2% target.
This expectation is reflected in the findings of the Treasury’s survey of forecasters, who expect inflation to fall to 2.3% in 2026.
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