What is the state pension triple lock?
The UK state pension triple lock is loved by pensioners but hated by economists. What is the triple lock – and what does its future hold?
The UK state pension increases each year under the triple lock, in an attempt to prevent it from losing value in real terms.
Under the mechanism, millions see their payments rise by the highest out of inflation, wage growth or 2.5%.
The state pension will rise by 4.8% in April 2026, in line with wages. It means the full new state pension will increase from £230.25 to £241.30 a week.
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The triple lock was introduced by the government in 2010, taking effect from April 2011, to ensure pensioners’ incomes keep up with the cost of living.
Critics point to the UK’s ageing population, saying it is unfair younger workers have to foot the bill for an ever-increasing pool of retirees.
How conflict in Iran could offer triple lock boost to state pensioners
In April 2023, the state pension rose by a record 10.1% as the triple lock was indexed to inflation, which had surged due to rising energy prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The same could happen again should the conflict in Iran be a prolonged one, according to a think tank.
Ezra Cohen, from the Centre for British Progress, said a spike in inflation caused by the war in the Middle East could lead to two bumper pay rises under the triple lock.
He said: “[The triple lock] is guaranteed to ‘double count’ price increases, because a spike in inflation in one year typically leads to an increase in wages the next.
“As a result, even a brief rise in prices will boost pensions twice over, making the triple lock volatile and increasingly unsustainable. The Iran war could well see this play out again.”
It’s worth bearing in mind though that the government temporarily suspended the earnings element of the triple lock in 2022/23 because of high wage growth from 2020, so could do this again if the policy becomes too expensive.
How much state pension do I get?
The state pension is a regular payment from the government that most people can claim when they reach state pension age (currently 66 years old but rising to 67 between 2026 and 2028 and to 68 between 2044 and 2046). The exact amount you are entitled to depends on your record of National Insurance contributions (NICs).
You can see what your record looks like by using the government’s “check your state pension forecast” tool.
New state pension
Assuming you are a man born after 6 April 1951 or a woman born after 6 April 1953, you should fall under the new state pension. You will usually qualify to receive some money if you have 10 years of NICs, and get the full amount if you have 35 years of NICs.
If you are on the full amount of the new state pension, you will currently receive £230.25 per week (£11,973 a year).
Basic state pension
Men born before 6 April 1951 and women born before 6 April 1953 fall under the old system – the basic state pension. The eligibility rules are slightly different:
- Men born before 1945: You need a minimum of 11 qualifying years to get any state pension, and 44 years for the full amount.
- Men born between 1945 and 1951: You need a minimum of one qualifying year to get any basic state pension, and 30 years for the full amount.
- Women born before 1950: You need a minimum of 10 qualifying years to get any state pension, and 39 years for the full amount.
- Women born between 1950 and 1953: You need a minimum of one qualifying year to get any basic state pension, and 30 years for the full amount.
The full amount of this payment is currently £176.45 a week (£9,175.40 a year).
How much will the state pension rise by in 2026?
Under the triple lock, the state pension will rise by 4.8% in April 2026, as average wage growth between May and July 2025 (including bonuses) was 4.8%.
This means someone on the full new state pension will see their payments go up to £241.30 a week, or £12,547 a year.
Someone on the full basic state pension will see their weekly amount increase to £184.91, or £9,615 a year.
If you don’t receive the full basic or new state pension, you will still get a 4.8% pay lift.
For example, if you are on a new state pension and currently receiving £200 a week, you will start getting £209.60 a week from April 2026.
Meanwhile, there are some who will miss out on the triple lock including those living abroad in certain countries.
How much does the triple lock cost the UK?
Under the current system, the state pension is one of the UK’s biggest outlays.
In 2025/26, the government is forecast to spend £323.1 billion on the social security system in Britain, according to its own predictions.
Around 55% of this amount will go to pensioners, with spending on the state pension expected to cost £146 billion.
What is the future of the triple lock?
The government has pledged to keep the triple lock in place until the end of this parliament, currently set to end in 2029.
However, the mechanism has been called into question due to its increasing cost.
The state pension has increased in value by 89% since the implementation of the triple lock in 2011, almost 30% more than inflation (60%) and over 20% more than earnings (66%), according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS).
The OBR says the triple lock has pushed up spending on the state pension so that it now costs the government £12 billion more per year than if it had risen in line with average earnings since 2011.
It says the triple lock is expected to reach £15.5 billion per year by 2029/30 while estimating spending on the state pension will rise by around £80 billion in today’s terms by the 2070s.
The rising cost of the state pension under the triple lock has seen some call for the mechanism to be scrapped and replaced with alternatives.
The IFS has called for a double-lock system, which would uprate the state pension in line with the higher of average wage growth or inflation.
However, Sir Steve Webb, the former pensions minister who was in post when the triple lock came into force, defended the policy in an episode of MoneyWeek Talks in 2025.
Webb told MoneyWeek’s digital editor Kalpana Fitzpatrick: “I became pensions minister in 2010. But in the previous 30 years, the state pension had been falling in value relative to what people earn, so it just went up with inflation most of the time.
“But the problem with that is if you earn and earn and then stop earning, then the thing you fall onto when you stop earning needs to be connected to some proportion of what you were earning.
“Otherwise, you just fall off a cliff and your standard of living crashes.
“So, the state pension needs to be pegged to a proportion of what people are earning and for 30 years, [prior to the triple lock] that had not happened.”
Webb, now a partner at consultancy firm Lane Clark & Peacock, argued that before the triple lock, the state pension was getting worse relative to what people were used to before they retired.
“So, the point of more generous indexation post 2010 was to undo 30 years of damage.
“I’m not embarrassed or ashamed; I am proud of the fact that the state pension has been over-indexed, so we link it now to the best of growth in wages, growth in prices or 2.5%. This has nudged up the state pension a bit, relative to the average wage.”
Will tax soon be due on the state pension?
The state pension is taxable, but the full new amount is currently below the £12,570 tax-free personal allowance.
Some pensioners who have other sources of income from private pensions or maybe work, already pay income tax.
More than eight million pensioners currently pay income tax, with this number set to rise by 600,000 to 9.3 million in 2026/27, according to estimates from the OBR.
But with the state pension rising every year, some relying solely on the benefit face breaching the £12,570 personal allowance from 2027. This would see them having to pay income tax for the first time, typically collected via Simple Assessment.
The chancellor Rachel Reeves has confirmed there will be a “workaround” for people finding themselves in this situation.
HM Treasury is expected to set out more detail on how this exemption will be administered later this year.
