UK interest rates: is a surprise cut on the cards?

Summary

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets on 6 November to set UK interest rates
Many experts expect the MPC to hold rates at 4%, despite UK economic growth stagnating
Inflation came in at 3.8% for September, below the expected 4% level
But with inflation still close to double the Bank’s target rate, experts expect the MPC to remain cautious
The upcoming Autumn Budget is another cause for uncertainty

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Good afternoon, and welcome to our live coverage of the upcoming interest rates decision.

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) announces its latest decision tomorrow (6 November), and most experts expect it to hold interest rates at 4%.

Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England (BOE), during the 2025 IIF annual membership meeting in Washington, DC — Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey and the MPC face a difficult balancing act.

Inflation was expected to peak at 4% in September before falling through 2026, but the consumer prices index (CPI) reading came in at 3.8% for the month, unchanged since July, perhaps indicating that the current inflationary wave is less severe than had been expected.

But it is still nearly double the Bank’s target rate of 2%, and as such most experts think the MPC will stick with a cautious hold tomorrow.