Be careful: conditions are ideal for the “bezzle”
It’s been a vintage few months for all kinds of “bezzle”, says John Stepek – the not necessarily criminal behaviour that just loves an economic boom. Just make sure you don’t get taken in.
In his book, The Great Crash 1929, economist J. K. Galbraith came up with one of the most useful concepts ever coined in finance: “the bezzle”. In short, it’s the as-yet-unrevealed inventory of nasty shocks that builds up in the economy during the good times, when “people are relaxed, trusting and money is plentiful”, only to reveal itself when tougher times arrive. While Galbraith describes this as “embezzlement”, “bezzle” is not necessarily outright criminal. Rather I see it as being similar to the Austrian economic notion of “malinvestment”. So it’s not just about the Bernie Madoffs of this world, it’s also the overambitious founder who is better at selling his idea than turning it into a successful business. Or the blatantly wacky investment fad that nevertheless takes off. Or the once highly-profitable fund manager who just got lucky with timing or borrowed money – or both.
What’s impressive about today’s investment environment is that it’s already been a vintage few months for revealed bezzle of all kinds, and we haven’t even had the crash yet. Here in the UK, under the likely category of overambitious founder, we have the ongoing unravelling of Lex Greensill’s “supply chain finance” group Greensill Capital, which employed none other than former prime minister David Cameron as an adviser. On the wacky investment side, we’ve seen non-fungible tokens (NFTs) – New York Times journalist Kevin Roose sold an NFT of a newspaper column he wrote on NFTs for more than $500,000 (for charity, but still – and yes, I am open to offers). And this week, in markets, we’ve seen the implosion of “family office” Archegos Capital Management, which appears to have done nothing much more complicated than borrowing lots of money from fee-hungry banks to make big leveraged bets on stocks, which then turned bad.
Start your trial of MoneyWeek today
Get unparalleled financial insight, analysis and expert opinion you can profit from.
Sign up for MoneyWeek’s free twice-daily newsletter.
Join more than 165,000 subscribers and keep yourself informed with latest financial news, insights and expert analysis to help you understand what really matters when it comes to your finances.
Join more than 165,000 subscribers and keep yourself informed with latest financial news, insights and expert analysis to help you understand what really matters when it comes to your finances.
