When Donald Trump began unveiling his tariff plans in April, investors feared we were entering a sharp and sudden bear market. Stocks dropped sharply around the world, with the US down 10% in two days. Yet the plunge was short-lived: stocks rallied as abruptly as they had dropped. The US and other major global markets have gone on to new highs. So did investors get rattled too easily – or are they too sanguine now?
On the optimistic side, the deals that the US is striking with trading partners look less damaging than everybody feared in April. Yes, tariffs are unwelcome. They bring complexity and friction to global trade and add costs. Those costs will be borne to varying extents by the entire supply chain between foreign exporters and US consumers. Yet these deals still reduce the risks of a wider and more damaging trade war.
The pessimistic take is that America’s views on the rest of the world have changed. It is backing away from principles that it has championed for decades to become insular and mercantilist. Policymaking is more arbitrary and unpredictable. We can’t even be confident that these deals – which are still broad frameworks – will be honoured, let alone what might come in the next three-and-a-half years and beyond.
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US stocks vs the world
So the rest of the world is reacting in a rational way. Countries are striking deals with the US to minimise immediate disruption, but over the longer term they will have to recognise that the world is changing. Trade patterns and alliances will shift. CEOs are also trying to flatter Trump by announcing large investments in the US to avoid being targeted – we are seeing plenty of this from pharma firms in an effort to ward off threats of high tariffs on imported drugs. Yet it remains to be seen how much will be puffing up investment that was already in the pipeline and how much actually materialises.
We will be looking at how all this could play out at Turmoil, Tariffs and Trump 2.0, our next annual MoneyWeek Wealth Summit on 7 November (tickets have just gone on sale at moneyweekwealthsummit.co.uk/2025). However, in stock market terms, there is one obvious idea for managing these risks.
US stocks have so far outstripped the rest of the world over the past 15 years that they now make up 60%-70% of the global market, depending on which index you track. This has been driven by superior earnings growth, but valuations have also diverged much more than many investors realise.
The MSCI USA trades on 23 times forecast earnings, while the MSCI Europe is on 14. Look back to mid 2016 – about the time the divergence accelerated – and the MSCI USA was on 17 times forward earnings, while the MSCI Europe was on 15 times. So striking a better balance between the US and the rest of the world than a typical global tracker fund doesn’t need to be a bet on whether Trump’s policies will ultimately hurt the US. Doing so is increasingly justified by the growing gulf in valuations.
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