US stocks are more expensive than ever after Trump's tariffs
We don’t need to second-guess the effect of Trump's tariffs to think that the rest of the world offers better value


When Donald Trump began unveiling his tariff plans in April, investors feared we were entering a sharp and sudden bear market. Stocks dropped sharply around the world, with the US down 10% in two days. Yet the plunge was short-lived: stocks rallied as abruptly as they had dropped. The US and other major global markets have gone on to new highs. So did investors get rattled too easily – or are they too sanguine now?
On the optimistic side, the deals that the US is striking with trading partners look less damaging than everybody feared in April. Yes, tariffs are unwelcome. They bring complexity and friction to global trade and add costs. Those costs will be borne to varying extents by the entire supply chain between foreign exporters and US consumers. Yet these deals still reduce the risks of a wider and more damaging trade war.
The pessimistic take is that America’s views on the rest of the world have changed. It is backing away from principles that it has championed for decades to become insular and mercantilist. Policymaking is more arbitrary and unpredictable. We can’t even be confident that these deals – which are still broad frameworks – will be honoured, let alone what might come in the next three-and-a-half years and beyond.
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE

Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
US stocks vs the world
So the rest of the world is reacting in a rational way. Countries are striking deals with the US to minimise immediate disruption, but over the longer term they will have to recognise that the world is changing. Trade patterns and alliances will shift. CEOs are also trying to flatter Trump by announcing large investments in the US to avoid being targeted – we are seeing plenty of this from pharma firms in an effort to ward off threats of high tariffs on imported drugs. Yet it remains to be seen how much will be puffing up investment that was already in the pipeline and how much actually materialises.
We will be looking at how all this could play out at Turmoil, Tariffs and Trump 2.0, our next annual MoneyWeek Wealth Summit on 7 November (tickets have just gone on sale at moneyweekwealthsummit.co.uk/2025). However, in stock market terms, there is one obvious idea for managing these risks.
US stocks have so far outstripped the rest of the world over the past 15 years that they now make up 60%-70% of the global market, depending on which index you track. This has been driven by superior earnings growth, but valuations have also diverged much more than many investors realise.
The MSCI USA trades on 23 times forecast earnings, while the MSCI Europe is on 14. Look back to mid 2016 – about the time the divergence accelerated – and the MSCI USA was on 17 times forward earnings, while the MSCI Europe was on 15 times. So striking a better balance between the US and the rest of the world than a typical global tracker fund doesn’t need to be a bet on whether Trump’s policies will ultimately hurt the US. Doing so is increasingly justified by the growing gulf in valuations.
This article was first published in MoneyWeek's magazine. Enjoy exclusive early access to news, opinion and analysis from our team of financial experts with a MoneyWeek subscription.
Get the latest financial news, insights and expert analysis from our award-winning MoneyWeek team, to help you understand what really matters when it comes to your finances.
Cris Sholto Heaton is an investment analyst and writer who has been contributing to MoneyWeek since 2006 and was managing editor of the magazine between 2016 and 2018. He is especially interested in international investing, believing many investors still focus too much on their home markets and that it pays to take advantage of all the opportunities the world offers. He often writes about Asian equities, international income and global asset allocation.
Cris began his career in financial services consultancy at PwC and Lane Clark & Peacock, before an abrupt change of direction into oil, gas and energy at Petroleum Economist and Platts and subsequently into investment research and writing. In addition to his articles for MoneyWeek, he also works with a number of asset managers, consultancies and financial information providers.
He holds the Chartered Financial Analyst designation and the Investment Management Certificate, as well as degrees in finance and mathematics. He has also studied acting, film-making and photography, and strongly suspects that an awareness of what makes a compelling story is just as important for understanding markets as any amount of qualifications.
-
'The EU Chips Act is another epic failure of state planning'
Opinion The European Chips Act has been a complete disaster. That holds a broader lesson for governments, says Matthew Lynn
-
Thousands more pay inheritance tax with figures expected to double before decade’s end
Number of deaths triggering inheritance tax rose 13% in a year with more increases predicted as Rachel Reeves’ pension reforms apply from April 2027
-
'The EU Chips Act is another epic failure of state planning'
Opinion The European Chips Act has been a complete disaster. That holds a broader lesson for governments, says Matthew Lynn
-
How to use SAYE and SIP schemes to multiply your money
Employers’ savings or share-incentive plans like SAYE and SIP schemes can help top up your pension
-
America’s looming debt crisis could blow up the entire financial system
Opinion Everyone’s trying hard to pretend that America's debt trap doesn’t really matter. It does, says Bill Bonner
-
China takes the lead in the global AI tech race – can the US charge ahead?
The idea that China could get ahead of the US in terms of technological prowess once seemed fanciful. That’s no longer the case.
-
Zohran Mamdani wows New York – what did the mayoral candidate get right?
Zohran Mamdani, 33, has won the Democratic candidacy to be mayor of New York. That has energised his supporters and enemies alike – and terrified the rich
-
Will the global boom in defence spending drive economic growth?
Defence spending is soaring, and politicians in the UK and Europe are telling voters it will be a major boost to economic growth. But is that really the case?
-
The new products and growth sectors driving America’s long-term winners
Opinion Felix Wintle, manager of the VT Tyndall North American Fund, highlights three favourite US stocks where he'd put his money
-
What will be the consequences of Donald Trump’s "One Big Beautiful Bill"?
The US president’s "One Big Beautiful Bill", an extraordinary mix of tax cuts and spending plans, has made it through both houses of the US Congress. What will be the consequences?