Should the IMF be more optimistic?

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is feeling bullish: it’s nudged up its 2017 global GDP growth forecast to 3.5% in its semi-annual World Economic Outlook. But this isn’t necessarily good news: the IMF’s forecasting record is mediocre.

In recent years, forecasts have been “a bit too chirpy”, as The Economist points out. Ever since 2010, in fact, it has had to revise down its forecasts every year. So its belief that the world economy is finally moving up a gear thanks to growing momentum in the developed world – the UK is now expected [...]