What’s really going on at Quindell?

The vigilantes are watching the markets

Did you catch the near £1bn smash-down in technology company Quindell this week?

It was caused by a research note from an American outfit called Gotham City Research, which made some seriously damning claims about the legitimacy of Quindell’s profits.

Until recently, this company was one of the London stock market’s darlings, having risen from a couple of pence in 2011 to around 40p.

But when Gotham published its research note, Quindell’s stock immediately halved in value.

And rather like Batman, the vigilante of Gotham City (presumably where this outfit got its name), it’s sometimes a tough job to know whether investment vigilantes are a genuine force for good.

Was Gotham providing a genuine service for investors? Or was this actually a bear raid by a cynical hedge fund looking for a quick profit on a short position…?

Profit from major market scandals

I quite like the idea of vigilantes, both in markets and outside them. I mean, surely only the baddies should fear the likes of our caped crusader!

And there have always been vigilantes in the markets. You hear about the bond vigilantes that supposedly take governments to task on their fiscal affairs. In the currency market, George Soros was among a group who shorted the pound in 1992, famously “breaking the Bank of England” and forcing the pound out of the ERM.

Looking back, it now appears that this was actually a fantastic boon for the UK. The lower pound increased the UK’s competitiveness as well as making it far more difficult to join the eurozone’s currency regime.

As far as famous stock shorters go, you may be familiar with Jim Chanos, the hedge fund manager that was among the first to discover the illicit goings on at Enron. Duly he made a mint by shorting the stock.

Closer to home, we’ve got our own Simon Cawkwell, AKA Evil Knievil – whose successes have included unearthing the Robert Maxwell fraud and Northern Rock’s disastrous mismanagement.

Again, the guy puts his money down (or not, as is the case with shorting), and hopes to profit as the scam comes to light. Indeed, according to The Telegraph, Cawkwell has benefited from a significant short on Quindell… lucky him!


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Research house or hedge fund stooge?

As far as Gotham goes, it’s unclear who’s behind the ‘research house’. Some speculate a hedge fund – and that’s probably likely to be the case. On its website, Gotham states that it may have positions in the stocks it researches. “May have”… I’d read that as, almost certainly does have!

You can read Gotham’s 74 page report. I’m certainly not endorsing it, but it may be of interest to readers – even if you don’t hold the stock. Gotham tackles some of the major issues that we should all be aware of when going through a company’s accounts.

Gotham states that “Quindell was little more than a country club until 2008/2009, yet QPP somehow began reporting Microsoft/Google-esque profit margins in 2010/2011.”

It also points out that 26% to 43% of Quindell’s 2009/2010 revenues came from a business owned by the CEO Robert Terry, and that 41% of 2011 revenue came from an undisclosed related party (ie, from a business controlled by a Quindell executive).

Essentially, Gotham is asking whether Quindell’s revenue is real, or just made up by moving cash around between related companies. Not least because, despite the reported profits surge, there is “No free cash flow and negative operating cash flow.”

And it’s a good point. That’s always one of the first things I look at when going through accounts: do the reported profits follow through into cash flow for the business?

The goodies and the baddies

Anyway, as if those accusations aren’t bad enough, Gotham further suggests that ten or more of Quindell’s recent acquisitions “lack economic substance” – that is, they were little more than paper companies!

There are allegations about ‘Ponzi-style schemes’ from former executives and a significant question mark should be inferred by the fact that “It [Quindell] has had three different auditors in three years since 2011.”

Oh, what a mess! Now, you should be aware that Quindell refutes all of Gotham’s claims. And I understand they will be releasing a full response in due course.

All we know at this stage is that Gotham has certainly asked some rather probing questions. And if they’re right, then it must be a good thing to curtail a sham operation before it sucks in more investor cash.

However, if the report was written with malicious intent and based on obvious un-untruths, the authors behind it are likely to be pursued. They won’t be able to stand behind the anonymity of its website forever.

How exciting… who are the goodies and who are the baddies? Time will tell.

This article is taken from our FREE daily investment email The Right Side.
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7 Responses

  1. 25/04/2014, RedBaron wrote

    Wot No comments – Quindell is backed by major institutions – surely they have carries out DD – Obviously a dirty short sellers trick.

  2. 25/04/2014, Shorthater wrote

    What a shame you could not have read Quindell’s response before writing this. You make yourself look foolish as a journalist and you bring Moneyweek into disrepute. Even a quick look at the Gotham “report” would cause one to question not only its motives but its accuracy. Disappointed and so will be cancelling my subscription. Poor journalism should not be rewarded with readership.

  3. 26/04/2014, CaseyJones64 wrote

    As a shareholder I’m really disappointed to read an “article” written by a financial magazine to which I subscribe publishing such poor, uninformed rubbish. Shorthater’s comments (above) say it all.

  4. 26/04/2014, EatMyShorts wrote

    Please read the response to Gothams report on the Quindell website:
    http://www.quindell.com/Press-Release/detailed-response-to-gotham-city-research-speculation
    You will find the Quindell statements true and accurate. Gothams plot to destabilise Quindell and other UK aim companies may be of more interest to readers. The Gotham report is libellous and events of 22nd April suggest market manipulation. These Jokers will be pursued.

  5. 26/04/2014, EatMyShorts wrote

    Not just MoneyWeek, a bad article concerning Quindell in the Financial Times appeared yesterday 25/04/2012 called “Quindell hit by further doubts” (by Mr Mance), I just wonder if Gotham was also was involved here or just bad journalism.

    The FT wrote :”However, the attempted rebuttal was undermined when people familiar with the matter revealed that Deutsche Bank had pulled out of a planned roadshow to introduce the company to US investors”
    This is completely untrue since Quindell has always communicated about doing the roadshow with a US Bank, and not with Deutsche Bank. Saying that Deutsche Bank had “pulled out” in the article is a fabrication.
    Quindell RNS published on March 31st, 2014 prior to the Gotham report, “‘With regards to the potential dual or North American listing, we are conducting an investor roadshow in late April with a major US based investment bank following our 2013 results roadshow to confirm appetite and demand for any potential dual listing in the US market’

    RNS:http://www.quindell.com/images/uploads/irdownloads2014/Quindell_PRE_2014.pdf (see page 4).

  6. 27/04/2014, Jps wrote

    How can you give print space to an anonymous article which seems to be linked to some sort of organised shorting attack.

    I will be cancelling my subscription.

  7. 11/05/2014, Jules2k wrote

    Well I won’t be canceling my subscription. Gotham’s research is not the first time I have heard doubts expressed about Quindell. Time will tell who the good guys/bad guys are in this matter as Bengt says

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