Millions of retirees will not benefit from the state pension triple lock next April - and potentially miss out on a 4.6% uplift - new data suggests.
The triple lock ensures that the state pension rises each year by the highest of inflation, wage growth or 2.5%.
However, not all state pension payments are covered by the triple lock guarantee.
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Millions of older pensioners are on the basic state pension, where the majority get an additional earnings-related pension — known as Serps or the state second pension — which is not covered by the government’s triple lock.
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According to government figures, an estimated 6,574,000 pensioners will receive the state second pension in 2026/27. This payment only increases in line with inflation, rather than being boosted by the triple lock.
In contrast, new state pension and basic state pension payments are protected by the triple lock.
The latest figures show wage growth running at 4.6%, which is higher than inflation. If the 4.6% figure was used in the triple lock next April, it would hike the full new state pension by £551 to £12,524 a year. Those on the basic state pension would see their annual earnings rise to £9,634.
Steve Webb, partner at pension consultants LCP, and a former pensions minister, comments: “It often comes as a surprise to people that the different elements of their state pension can go up at different rates.
“The famous ‘triple lock’ promise applies only to the old ‘basic’ state pension and the new flat rate pension, but not to other elements of the pension such as the state second pension (often known as Serps).”
Find out more about who will miss out on the state pension triple lock
How much will the state pension rise by next year?
The annual triple lock rise is only known in October for the following April, and even then the government usually confirms the exact amount later, in its Autumn Budget.
The inflation figure in the triple lock is for the previous September, while the average wage growth data relates to May to July. Neither of these figures have been published yet.
Wage growth is currently at 4.6% and inflation is sitting at 3.8% at the moment, suggesting that the triple lock could rise in line with wage growth, if it continues to be higher than inflation.
If inflation remains at 3.8%, older pensioners receiving the state second pension are likely to only get around 80% of the triple lock uplift for that part of their pension.
Webb notes: “In a year when wages grow faster than prices, the triple locked elements of the pension will rise by slightly more than other elements.”
According to Helen Morrissey, head of retirement analysis at Hargreaves Lansdown, it’s likely we will see a state pension triple lock increase “somewhere in the 4-4.5% ballpark for next year”.
This would mean someone on a new state pension will see their annual payments rise by around £479 to £538. Someone on a full basic state pension would see their payments rise by £367 to £413.
An increase of this size would roughly match the triple lock uplift seen in April 2025, when the state pension rose by 4.1%.
However, it’s a lot less than what we’ve seen in recent years, when the state pension rocketed by 8.5% in April 2024, and a whopping 10.1% a year prior.
Derence Lee, chief finance officer, Shepherds Friendly, comments: “Due to the extremely high levels of inflation the UK has experienced since 2020, state pensions have been increasing at a rate that some experts believe to be unsustainable in the long term.”
He adds that the new full state pension is likely to breach the tax-free personal allowance of £12,570 within the next year or two, meaning more retirees will be dragged into the tax-paying bracket.
Who doesn’t benefit from the state pension triple lock?
Currently, 6,936,000 pensioners receive the state second pension, and this payment rises with inflation, instead of the triple lock.
Government estimates show that this figure will fall to 6,574,000 in April 2026. This is due to older pensioners dying each year, which reduces the number receiving the basic state pension (and therefore the state second pension too).
A decade ago, there were about 10 million pensioners in receipt of the state second pension.
People who defer their state pension also don’t benefit from the triple lock on the extra amount that is paid to them for deferring.
The state pension increases by 5.8% for every full year you delay taking it, if you reached or will reach state pension age on or after 6 April 2016.
This extra amount then increases each year in line with CPI inflation, rather than the triple lock.
British pensioners living abroad in countries like Australia, Canada, India, New Zealand and South Africa do not have their state pensions increased with the triple lock.
This “frozen state pension” policy - which means expat pensioners in certain countries don’t see any increase to their UK state pension at all - affects about 450,000 pensioners.
