S&P 500 opens 2.4% down
Another bruising day in store for the stock market?
The US flagship index has opened 2.4% lower than its close last week. It is the first time in nearly a year that the index has been below 5,000.
What is a tariff?
If you’re reading this blog, you’re almost certainly aware that tariffs are having a major impact on the global economy and your investments in the stock market.
However, you might not be completely clear on what a tariff is. Thankfully, MoneyWeek’s Katie Williams has this excellent explainer: What are tariffs and what do they mean for your money?
Could Chinese retaliation spark a global trade war?
Beijing was quick to respond to Trump’s tariff announcement, which included 34% tariffs on all imports from China.
On Friday, China announced that it will increase tariffs on all US imports by that same 34% figure – on top of the 10-15% tariffs on US imports that it imposed on agricultural and energy products earlier this year.
While many economists and countries had hoped that the tariffs would be short-lived; that they would be removed piecemeal as countries negotiated trade deals with the US, in exchange for whatever concessions the deal-oriented president demanded.
However, the world’s two largest economies now appear to have nowhere to go. China’s retaliation leaves little in the way of an off-ramp, and increases the antagonism between the two countries.
“That retaliation from China sparked a fresh wave of selling pressure at the end of last week, with futures on the S&P 500 moving sharply lower at that point, before the index fell to its worst-daily performance (-5.97%) since March 2020, at the height of the initial pandemic wave,” wrote Henry Allen, macro strategist at Deutsche Bank.
Global stock markets have fallen since, based on the fear that, rather than receding, the trade war will now escalate further.
Send us your questions
We’ll be reporting live on global trade news throughout the week, and we’re particularly keen to bring expert opinion on the things that matter most to you.
If there are particular questions you want answered on the tariff story and how it might affect your money, send them to editor@moneyweek.com with the subject line ‘Tariff question', and we will do our best to answer them as the week goes on.
Keir Starmer: the end of the world as we know it?
In an op-ed for the Sunday Telegraph over the weekend, prime minister Keir Starmer stated that “the world as we knew it has gone”.
“First it was defence and national security,” he wrote. “Now it is the global economy and trade.”
UK prime minister Keir Starmer last week, addressing a roundtable with UK business leaders at Downing Street. Starmer is expected to make a speech today on the possible responses to Donald Trump’s tariff trade war that has rocked global stock markets.
The new world, he continued, will be one driven by “deals and alliances” rather than “established rules”. This era, he wrote, “demands the best of British virtues – cool heads, pragmatism and a clear understanding of our national interest”.
The prime minister is expected to give a speech in the West Midlands today reiterating these themes, and highlighting the steps that the government is considering in order to protect the British economy.
These could include using industrial policy to protect British businesses.
“This week, the Government will do everything necessary to protect Britain’s national interest,” he wrote. “We have gone further and faster on national security, now we must do the same on economic security through strengthened alliances and reducing barriers to trade.”
It is expected that Starmer will announce a relaxation to the 2030 ban on new petrol vehicle sales, in a bid to support the UK automotive industry.
FTSE 100 falls 11% on tariff fallout
The FTSE 100 has fallen over 5% so far today, as fears over the implications of Trump’s tariff regime continue to weigh on the stock market.
The index has lost slightly under 11% since close last Tuesday, the day before the new tariffs were announced.
“Growth forecasts had already been slashed in half this year, and the tariff storm is set to weigh heavily on the UK economy,” says Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets, Hargreaves Lansdown.
Good morning, and welcome to our global trade live blog
The stock market rout continues in the wake of a tariff regime that goes much further than many observers had expected Donald Trump would dare to do. The tariffs announced last week have the potential to completely upend the established patterns of global trade.
Follow our blog for live updates and analysis, as well as expert opinions on how to protect your money from the disruption.