House prices rose in October, but ongoing speculation that the Autumn Budget could mean a shake-up to property taxation is hitting consumer confidence.
The average cost of a house rose by 0.6% in October, the highest monthly rise so far in 2025, according to Halifax. The month has also pulled annual price growth to 1.9%.
October’s price growth means the average cost of a home in the UK is now £299,862.
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Tom Bill, head of UK residential research at Knight Frank, said: “Stable mortgage rates have supported demand in recent months and the bank rate is now on a downward path. But a tax-raising Budget will curb buying power and weigh on sentiment, keeping a lid on housing market activity next year.”
What do official house price figures show?
There are at least five different indices that measure how much UK house prices have gone up or down over the past month and year, but the most authoritative source is HM Land Registry.
The Land Registry has the most comprehensive data set, as it includes cash purchases as well as those financed through a mortgage, but the main drawback is that it is published with a six-week time lag. This means other sources can give a better snapshot of current conditions.
The latest official figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show house prices in the UK rose by 0.8% between July and August, the latest month for which data is available.
The ONS records the average price of a UK house at around £273,000.
Consumer confidence remains low
Housebuyers in the UK are at their least confident this financial year, according to new data, as murmurings of tax hikes are spooking buyers across the market.
On top of a weakening labour market and a slowing economy, the latest sentiment survey from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) reveals new buyer enquiries fell 24% in October, the weakest reading since April. At the same time, agreed sales are also down 24%.
This is particularly the case for the upper end of the property market. Data from Zoopla shows sales stalled as buyers fear increased taxation on more expensive homes – the property site reported demand was down 11% in the five weeks before 29 September.
Owners and buyers of higher-value homes worry they could be stung by a rumoured property tax on the sale of homes above £500,000, which could replace the current stamp duty regime.
The Treasury has not confirmed whether any taxes on property will be changed at the Autumn Budget.
Where are house prices forecast to go?
House prices are expected to climb in the very short term, as average asking prices in October were up 0.3% on a monthly basis according to property website Rightmove.
Asking prices are a useful barometer for market sentiment as it currently stands. These snapshots tend to be published only a few weeks after the data was recorded. The drawback is that asking prices don’t necessarily reflect the final sold price.
But despite a resilient few months, the housing market is forecast to soften slightly in the near term, as the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors expects prices to fall in the next three months.
However, once policy direction stabilises, RICS expects a rise in the medium term with prices climbing again in the next 12 months.
Meanwhile, long-term expectations have also been tempered. Real estate services firm Savills now expects house prices to have grown just 1% overall in 2025, down considerably from the 4% the previous forecast.
Sluggish growth is expected to continue into the new year, with prices expected to rise just 2% in 2026.
Better news does seem to be on the horizon, however. Growth is forecast to pick up between 2027 and 2030, bringing total growth from 20-25 to 2030 to 22.2%.
This growth is expected to be powered by strong performance in Yorkshire and The Humber and North East England, which are both forecast to grow 28.8% by 2030.
Will house prices rise beyond 2025?
Despite trimming their forecasts, some experts think house price growth could pick up in 2026 and beyond. Savills is currently forecasting 4% growth in 2026, 6% in both 2027 and 2028, and 5.5% in 2029.
The estate agency expects wages to grow 22% between 2025 and 2029. Combined with a strengthening economy in the latter part of this time frame, it thinks it will “boost buyer confidence and the willingness to take advantage of improved mortgage conditions”.
Savills also thinks falling mortgage rates and more relaxed affordability tests from lenders could boost transaction volumes, making it easier for first-time buyers to get onto the housing ladder. Following encouragement from policymakers, some lenders are allowing mortgage customers to borrow more than they could previously.
Under the old rules, less than 10% of new mortgages exceeded 4.5 times a borrower’s income, but the Bank of England recently said it would be happy to see that percentage rise to more than 15%. Nationwide said it means applicants can borrow £28,000 more on average.
Knight Frank has more muted expectations than Savills, but still expects the rate of house price growth to pick up from 2026. It is forecasting growth of 3% in 2026, 4% in 2027, 4.5% in 2028 and 5% in 2029.
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