An oil crisis could tip Britain into a full-scale recession

Keir Starmer — (Image credit: Jaimi Joy/Getty Images)

As the oil crisis gathers momentum, it remains to be seen how events play out in the Persian Gulf – a ceasefire might be agreed with Iran and the shipping lanes might start to reopen, as might the production facilities. But as the week started, it did not seem likely. Oil spiked over $100 a barrel, and across Europe, natural-gas prices more than doubled. By Tuesday morning, they had started to fall again. And in real terms, $100 is not in any cases all that extraordinary a price for oil. The real-terms price was $131 in 2008 and $104 after the start of the Ukraine war.

Still, the rise is already pushing up costs across Europe and Asia. And it is Britain that will be hit hardest of all. Twenty years of deluded policymaking is about to be brutally exposed if oil stays at these levels. Why? Firstly, the UK is critically dependent on imported energy. We have been steadily running down domestic production in the North Sea with a punishing mix of windfall taxes and bans on new exploration, while assuming that wind and solar power would make up the shortfall.

That has not happened and it has cost far more than anyone expected. Instead, we rely on massive imports of natural gas to keep the power stations running and imports of oil to keep the petrol pumps open. As it happens, Britain does not import huge amounts of gas from the Middle East, but we still have to pay the global price. If we had our own production, not only would it increase global supply (and therefore reduce the price, at least marginally), but more importantly, in a crisis, the government could always requisition supplies. As it is, when prices go up, we feel the full brunt of it.

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An oil crisis will lay waste to British industry

Secondly, an oil crisis will lay waste to industry. What remains of manufacturing was already getting hammered by industrial energy prices that are twice those of France and four times the US's. Car output has fallen back to levels last seen in the 1950s, as has cement production. Huge swaths of the chemicals industry have closed down. With oil and electricity prices almost doubling, what remains will be in deep trouble.

Many manufacturers that were just about breaking even will now have to close and the damage will quickly spread to retailers, cafes and restaurants if their power prices go up as well. Business was in bad shape already. This will finish many of them off.

Thirdly, we rely on massive amounts of foreign borrowing. The rising oil price has already led to a sharp rise in gilt yields. The government's finances will be in worse shape than ever and that is before ministers panic and launch a bailout to try to control the price rises. Almost a third of the £100 billion-plus the UK has to borrow every year comes from overseas. If there is a general sell-off of government bonds, and that is looking more and more likely all the time, then the UK will inevitably be right in the centre of the storm. Sterling is a big enough currency that it can be traded in volume, but not so big that its central bank can control the market. We can be sure the hedge funds will be shorting gilts and sterling if sentiment turns against the UK.

Stagflation is our best hope

Finally, the government was banking on falling oil prices to have any hope of growth. The only real plan that remained was for the Bank of England to steadily reduce interest rates as inflation came under control, reducing mortgage rates and stimulating demand. Chancellor Rachel Reeves kept boasting interest rates coming down were one of her major achievements. In the wake of the oil-price spike, traders have cut the chances of another cut from the Bank this year to zero. Worse, rates might even have to rise if prices spike upwards. With taxes rising at the same time, and unemployment going up as well, stagflation is the best we can hope for. By the autumn, the UK may have tipped into a full-scale recession.

In short, a government that has already sunk to 20% or less in the polls is going to be in deep trouble. It did not have much of a plan for kick-starting growth or for improving living standards to start with, but what little hopes it may have had for the economy have now been dashed. Its own policies have been making the energy crisis worse, not better. An oil crisis is the last thing Labour needs this year. It will painfully expose all the frailties of the British economy – and right now it looks as if it may be too late to do anything about it.

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Matthew Lynn is a columnist for Bloomberg and writes weekly commentary syndicated in papers such as the Daily Telegraph, Die Welt, the Sydney Morning Herald, the South China Morning Post and the Miami Herald. He is also an associate editor of Spectator Business, and a regular contributor to The Spectator. Before that, he worked for the business section of the Sunday Times for ten years.