Will petrol prices rise this year?

Fuel prices have jumped as the escalating conflict in the Middle East pushes up the price of oil, which has in turn led to a rise in the price of petrol and diesel.

While petrol and diesel prices started 2026 at a five- year low, the US and Israel’s strikes on Iran on 28 February have led to a rapid rise in the price of oil.

Petrol and diesel are made by enriching crude oil, meaning that when wholesale prices of oil increase, the price at the pump also increases.

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On 9 March, the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil soared past $100, the most expensive it has been since 2022 in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Motorists are already feeling the pain at the pump. Between 2 March and 8 March, the price of a litre of petrol increased by 4.68p to an average of 137.5p per litre, according to the RAC.

Meanwhile, diesel prices have experienced a sharper rise, increasing by 8.59p per litre in the same time period, bringing the average price of diesel to 151p per litre.

The hikes mean the cost of filling up a 55-litre petrol tank is now over £75, rising to £83 for drivers of diesel vehicles.

It takes a while for increasing wholesale costs of oil to be reflected in the price of petrol and diesel at the pump, meaning there could be more pain to come for those filling up.

What’s more, oil prices are set at the global level and, unfortunately for Brits, are priced in dollars, so drivers in the UK can be stung by fluctuations in the exchange rate.

With instability rampant in the oil market and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the Persian Gulf, we look at the outlook for petrol prices in 2026.

Why are oil prices volatile?

The price of oil has surged since the joint US and Israeli military action in Iran, which began on 28 February.

Oil prices increased because of the volatility these strikes have caused in the Middle East, where a large portion of the world’s oil supply is, threatening global supply lines.

In particular, disruption to trade traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for oil tankers close to Iran, has led to surging oil prices as ships are finding it much more difficult to safely pass through the strait and continue on to their destinations.

What does turbulence in the oil market mean for petrol prices?

Both petrol and diesel are derivatives of oil, meaning that any price fluctuations in the oil markets will naturally impact the price of fuel.

We saw this in 2022, when oil prices soared in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and countries across Europe, including the UK, restricted the oil supply available to Russia. Petrol prices spiked to 191.43p per litre in July 2022.

If the conflict between Iran and Israel and the US continues, many analysts fear there will be a similar rise in the price of petrol.

The price of a barrel of oil is already much higher than it was before the conflict. A barrel of Brent crude cost around $72 when markets closed on Friday 27 March. In the early hours of 9 March it increased to $115 – an almost 60% surge – but then fell back down to around $95 dollars as the trading day continued.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs have warned that oil prices could reach $150 by the end of March if the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is not remedied.

If the cost of oil continues to rise, the price of petrol and diesel will likely follow.

Simon Williams, head of policy at the RAC, said: “Average petrol and diesel prices have rocketed in the last week and are unfortunately likely to keep on rising, so the situation for UK drivers is looking increasingly bleak.

“Unleaded is almost certainly going to reach an average of 140p in the next week or so while diesel looks highly likely to climb to at least 160p a litre.

“The price of diesel is increasing more quickly now than at any point since the start of the Ukraine conflict. With oil at a sustained $100, petrol could rise towards 150p a litre - a price not seen since June 2024. Diesel could reach almost 180p, which would be a three-year high.”

Williams advised that, with prices on the up, drivers should continue to fill up as normal, but shop around to find the best fuel prices. He said there can be large differences in prices at the pump even within one local area.

He added: “Driving fuel-efficiently by avoiding harsh accelerating and braking and ensuring tyres are inflated to the right pressures can help eke out every last mile and save money.”

Where can you find the cheapest fuel?

Supermarkets are often the most cost-effective places to fill up your tank as they benefit from economies of scale when buying in bulk, and are especially incentivised to offer a good deal so that customers are attracted to their shops.

This, paired with rewards schemes that many run (such as Nectar at Sainsbury's.and Tesco Clubcard) mean supermarkets often offer the best deals for petrol and diesel.

Right now, the best supermarket on average to fuel up your car is Asda, where petrol costs around 134.5p per litre.

Source: RAC Fuel Watch, 9 March

Among other brands, Essar is currently the cheapest on average.

Source: RAC Fuel Watch, 9 March

When you are trying to keep the cost of fueling up low, you are best advised to stay away from motorway service stations and their pumps.

This is because service stations are able to exploit their captive audience and can afford to charge them more.

To illustrate this, RAC notes that the average UK-wide price of unleaded is 137.51p, but this figure climbs to 159.93p for the average service station.