Fuel prices on the rise again – how much will it cost you to fill up your car?
Fuel prices have started to fall after markets calmed in the second month of the Iran war, but how long will it be before they get back to pre-war levels?
Fuel costs are on the rise again as oil prices continue to surge in the wake of the Iran war.
While petrol and diesel prices started 2026 at a five-year low, they have since surged due to a rapid rise in the price of oil after the US waged war on Iran in February.
As petrol and diesel are made by enriching crude oil, when oil prices rise so do fuel prices.
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The price of a litre of petrol is now around 159p, more than 26p higher than it was before the conflict began on 28 February. The RAC forecast prices to keep rising for the foreseeable future.
With petrol prices at this level, it means filling up a car with a 50 litre tank will cost you around £80.
Meanwhile, diesel drivers are having to pay even more. The average litre of diesel now costs 184p, 42p more than it was before the war. A full 50 litre tank will set you back around £92.
That being said, diesel prices have been consistently falling since the middle of April, though it is unlikely they will return to pre-war levels while the conflict is ongoing.
Why are oil prices volatile?
The price of oil has surged since the joint US and Israeli military action in Iran, which began on 28 February.
Oil prices increased because of the volatility these strikes have caused in the Middle East, where a large portion of the world’s oil supply originates, threatening global supply lines.
In particular, disruption to trade traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman through which 20% of the world’s oil and gas is transported, led to surging oil prices as ships are still unable to pass through safely despite a ceasefire being agreed.
What does turbulence in the oil market mean for petrol prices?
Both petrol and diesel are derivatives of oil, meaning that any price fluctuations in the oil markets will naturally impact the price of fuel.
A good example of this can be seen in 2022, when oil prices soared in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and countries across Europe, including the UK, restricted the oil supply available to Russia. Petrol prices spiked to 191.43p per litre in July 2022.
This is similar to what is happening now, although to a lesser extent. A constrained global oil supply is leading to price increases for oil derivatives like petrol and diesel in the UK.
How long these price increases will continue will largely depend on the duration of the Iran war and when shipping will go back to normal through the Strait of Hormuz.
If the conflict ends soon and trade goes back to normal, then we can expect prices to gradually come down. But if hostilities escalate, we could see prices rise.
Analysis by RAC shows that the price of petrol is now likely to rise to at least 160p a litre in the coming weeks if there is no dramatic and sustained drop in the price of oil.
As for diesel, the analysis shows a slightly more positive outlook as its wholesale price has reduced significantly since its early April peak.
Simon Williams, head of policy at the RAC, said: "While the price of diesel at the pump has fallen it should really be much lower than it is. We urge retailers to reflect the savings they're benefitting from when buying new supply on the forecourt.”
Where can you find the cheapest fuel?
Supermarkets are often the most cost-effective places to fill up your tank as they benefit from economies of scale when buying in bulk, and are especially incentivised to offer a good deal so customers are attracted to their shops.
This, paired with rewards schemes that many run (such as Nectar at Sainsbury's and Tesco Clubcard) mean supermarkets often offer the best deals for petrol and diesel.
To find the best deals in your local area, it is a good idea to check Fuel Finder, a service provided by the government that shows you live prices in forecourts near you.
You can use this service to find where the cheapest petrol is and fuel up there, helping you save some extra cash.
To keep the cost of refuelling low, you should also try to stay away from the pumps at motorway service stations.
This is because service stations have a captive audience of drivers so charge more.
The average UK-wide price of unleaded is 159.48p, but this figure climbs to 179.8p for the average service station, according to the RAC.
