Will petrol prices rise this year?

Fuel prices have jumped in recent weeks as the conflict in the Middle East pushes up the price of oil.

Petrol and diesel prices started 2026 at a five-year low, but there’s been a rapid rise in the price of oil following the US-Israel strikes on Iran on 28 February.

Petrol and diesel are made by enriching crude oil, so a rise in wholesale prices pushes up costs at the pump.

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On 9 March, the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil soared close to $100 and has steadily increased since. It is the most expensive oil has been since 2022, after oil surged following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Motorists are already feeling the pain at the pump. Between 28 February and 17 March, the price of a litre of petrol increased by 9.5p to an average of 142.29 per litre, according to the RAC.

There was a sharper rise in diesel prices, which increased by 19.7p per litre in the same time period, bringing the average price of diesel to 162.06p per litre.

The RAC said someone filling up a roughly 55 litre tank of diesel is paying £11 more as of 17 March than they were at the end of February.

It takes a while for increasing wholesale costs of oil to be reflected in the price of petrol and diesel, meaning there could be more pain to come for those filling up at pumps.

What’s more, oil prices are set at the global level and, unfortunately for Brits, are priced in dollars, so drivers in the UK can be stung by fluctuations in the exchange rate.

With instability rampant in the oil market and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the Persian Gulf, we look at the outlook for petrol prices in 2026.

Why are oil prices volatile?

The price of oil has surged since the joint US and Israeli military action in Iran, which began on 28 February.

Oil prices increased because of the volatility these strikes have caused in the Middle East, where a large portion of the world’s oil supply is, threatening global supply lines.

In particular, disruption to trade traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for oil tankers close to Iran, has led to surging oil prices as ships are unable to pass through safely.

What does turbulence in the oil market mean for petrol prices?

Both petrol and diesel are derivatives of oil, meaning that any price fluctuations in the oil markets will naturally impact the price of fuel.

We saw this in 2022, when oil prices soared in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and countries across Europe, including the UK, restricted the oil supply available to Russia. Petrol prices spiked to 191.43p per litre in July 2022.

If the conflict between Iran and Israel and the US continues, many analysts fear there will be a similar rise in the price of petrol.

The price of a barrel of oil is already much higher than it was before the conflict. A barrel of Brent crude cost around $72 when markets closed on Friday 27 February.

However, since the conflict erupted, the price has climbed, reaching $101 on 17 March.

Investment bank Goldman Sachs expects Brent oil to average over $100 a barrel in March but fall to $85 in April, according to Reuters.

It then expects crude to fall further to the low $70s later in the year, however should disruption in the Strait of Hormuz continue, this figure could end up higher.

The investment bank said a two-month disruption in the strait could see the average price of a barrel of Brent crude hit $93 in the final three months of 2026.

If the cost of oil continues to rise, the price of petrol and diesel will likely follow.

Simon Williams, head of policy at the RAC, said: “Petrol has now increased by 10p a litre since the start of the conflict in Iran and diesel by double that. This is really starting to hurt drivers who do a lot of miles, and especially for those with diesel vehicles.

“If oil stays around the $100 a barrel mark, then the price of petrol should not go above 148p a litre. The outlook for diesel is worse as it appears to be on a crash course to an average price of 170p.”

Williams suggested that, with prices on the up, drivers should continue to fill up as normal, but shop around to find the best fuel prices. He said there can be large differences in prices at the pump even within one local area, and sometimes it’s worth travelling to a forecourt further away if you’ll pay a lot less at the pumps.

He added: “Driving fuel-efficiently by avoiding harsh accelerating and braking and ensuring tyres are inflated to the right pressures can help eke out every last mile and save money.”

Where can you find the cheapest fuel?

Supermarkets are often the most cost-effective places to fill up your tank as they benefit from economies of scale when buying in bulk, and are especially incentivised to offer a good deal so customers are attracted to their shops.

This, paired with rewards schemes that many run (such as Nectar at Sainsbury's and Tesco Clubcard) mean supermarkets often offer the best deals for petrol and diesel.

Right now, the best supermarket on average to fill up your car is Tesco, where petrol costs around 138.6p per litre.

Source: RAC Fuel Watch, 18 March

Among other brands, Essar is currently the cheapest on average.

Source: RAC Fuel Watch, 18 March

To keep the cost of refuelling low, you are best advised to stay away from the pumps at motorway service stations.

This is because service stations are able to exploit their captive audience and can afford to charge them more.

The average UK-wide price of unleaded is 142.29p, but this figure climbs to 161.57p for the average service station, according to the RAC.