Should we get ready for a post-pandemic baby boom?

Birth rates across the developed world collapsed as people locked themselves away. Hopefully that won't last, says Merryn Somerset Webb. There's nothing like the end of a crisis to make people feel like making babies.

A wedding
Expect to see a lot more of these in the next year
(Image credit: © Shutterstock)

There once was an idea floating around that markets move with the moon. It sounds silly, but does stand up to some scrutiny. Research suggests the moon affects how we feel – more negative around a full moon; more positive around a new. We know that psychology plays a major part in market moves, so it makes sense that the two might be connected. Indeed, several studies show that markets do better around a new moon than a full – to the tune of 3%-5%. Fascinating, isn’t it? And once you know about it, it can seem to explain everything. Forget money flows and valuations – it’s all about the moon.

The problem, of course, is that lunar cycles aren’t the only thing that – once you vanish down their rabbit hole – seem to explain everything. Demographics is the same. Once you’ve looked at how the numbers of people knocking about affect everything from GDP (more people = more growth!) to valuations (more people investing = higher markets), you wonder why you bother with anything else. This is why the drop in developed world birth rates in 2020 is causing such upset.

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Merryn Somerset Webb

Merryn Somerset Webb started her career in Tokyo at public broadcaster NHK before becoming a Japanese equity broker at what was then Warburgs. She went on to work at SBC and UBS without moving from her desk in Kamiyacho (it was the age of mergers).

After five years in Japan she returned to work in the UK at Paribas. This soon became BNP Paribas. Again, no desk move was required. On leaving the City, Merryn helped The Week magazine with its City pages before becoming the launch editor of MoneyWeek in 2000 and taking on columns first in the Sunday Times and then in 2009 in the Financial Times

Twenty years on, MoneyWeek is the best-selling financial magazine in the UK. Merryn was its Editor in Chief until 2022. She is now a senior columnist at Bloomberg and host of the Merryn Talks Money podcast -  but still writes for Moneyweek monthly. 

Merryn is also is a non executive director of two investment trusts – BlackRock Throgmorton, and the Murray Income Investment Trust.