Is the UK housing market doomed to stagnation?
Housing is the mirror image of Britain’s moribund stock market. A crash would be the best outcome


When I began contributing to MoneyWeek two decades ago, Britain was in the middle of a property mania. Flipping houses was the path to rapid riches. TV shows were full of people renovating flats to sell – often spending more than they earned back. Financial-advice columns were stuffed with those who wanted to gear up their buy-to-let portfolio to buy more, or had already borrowed too much and were panicking.
Today, Britain is still obsessed with property, but the mood is very different. It’s not simply that investing in property is less appealing due to tax changes and new laws. There has finally been some long-overdue realisation that expensive housing is a curse that holds back the economy, not a source of good fortune.
Still, I am not as confident as Matthew Lynn that property prices are going to plummet to reasonable valuations. Houses are not like most assets: many people buy once they can afford to because they are tired of renting sub-standard properties or because they want to be certain of housing costs for later in life – even if they think prices are expensive. Unless interest rates soar (which seems unlikely) or supply vastly increases – and the government doesn’t have the appetite to provide the state backing needed – a crash is less probable than a long stagnation.
MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE

Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Housing market stagnation
In fact, quiet stagnation is what we have been seeing for a while. For this, refer to the Land Registry data: it is much less timely than other indices (sales can take a very long time to be added) and so doesn’t show turning points well, but it provides the most comprehensive view of long-term trends.
These series show that house prices have risen strongly in nominal terms since the global financial crisis. Yet adjust for inflation and it’s a different story – real house prices are now below where they were in 2007. Of course, housing is not one market; property type and location are critical. Look at London and we see stagnation since 2016 but also a gulf opening up between terraced houses and flats. Still, even flats are only back to 2007 levels in real terms, when they were already unprecedentedly expensive relative to incomes. Britain’s financial centre has a stagnant yet still-overpriced housing market and a shrinking yet arguably undervalued stock market. No wonder the mood is so bleak.
This article was first published in MoneyWeek's magazine. Enjoy exclusive early access to news, opinion and analysis from our team of financial experts with a MoneyWeek subscription.
Get the latest financial news, insights and expert analysis from our award-winning MoneyWeek team, to help you understand what really matters when it comes to your finances.
Cris Sholto Heaton is an investment analyst and writer who has been contributing to MoneyWeek since 2006 and was managing editor of the magazine between 2016 and 2018. He is especially interested in international investing, believing many investors still focus too much on their home markets and that it pays to take advantage of all the opportunities the world offers. He often writes about Asian equities, international income and global asset allocation.
Cris began his career in financial services consultancy at PwC and Lane Clark & Peacock, before an abrupt change of direction into oil, gas and energy at Petroleum Economist and Platts and subsequently into investment research and writing. In addition to his articles for MoneyWeek, he also works with a number of asset managers, consultancies and financial information providers.
He holds the Chartered Financial Analyst designation and the Investment Management Certificate, as well as degrees in finance and mathematics. He has also studied acting, film-making and photography, and strongly suspects that an awareness of what makes a compelling story is just as important for understanding markets as any amount of qualifications.
-
5 alternatives to Reeves’ inheritance tax raid on rural Britain as families face ‘splitting up or selling’ farms
Inheritance tax limits are now so low they attack small working family farms rather than just going after tax loopholes, one Cotswolds farmer has said
-
High earners at risk of £65k retirement shock
High earners could face some of the biggest pension shortfalls when they retire, as the cost of maintaining an expensive lifestyle could erode their retirement savings
-
The financial crisis in UK universities – what can be done?
UK universities are running out of cash and have begun to shed staff; bankruptcies look likely. What’s gone wrong, and what should be done about it?
-
8 of the best properties for sale with kitchen gardens
The best properties for sale with kitchen gardens – from a 17th-century timber-framed hall house in Norfolk, to an Arts & Crafts house in West Sussex designed by Charles Voysey with a garden by Gertrude Jekyll
-
8 of the best properties for sale with shooting estates
The best properties for sale with shooting estates – from an estate in a designated Dark Sky area in Ayrshire, Scotland, to a hunting estate in Tuscany with a wild boar, mouflon, deer and hare shoot
-
What we can learn from Britain’s "Dashing Dozen" stocks
Stocks that consistently outperform the market are clearly doing something right. What can we learn from the UK's top performers and which ones are still buys?
-
How retail investors can gain exposure to Lloyd’s of London
It’s hard for retail investors to get in on the action at Lloyd’s of London. Here are some of the ways to gain exposure
-
Why is Britain's industrial base crumbling?
Opinion More and more factories in the UK are closing, and the government doesn’t seem to care. What’s going on?
-
Scotland's former first minister Nicola Sturgeon leaves behind a toxic legacy
On the left, Nicola Sturgeon is seen as something of a political hero. That makes sense… but only if you exclude her actual record in office
-
8 of the best properties for sale for around £1 million
The best properties for sale for around £1 million – from a Grade II-listed, 17th-century barn conversion in Norfolk, to a Caribbean house on the island of Lubbers Quarters Cay in the Bahamas