The world in 2040: expect water shortages and a bellicose China

Jonathan Compton predicts the key economic and political changes investors should factor in over the next two decades.

Sailing boat on the River Nile
The Nile, along with many other giant rivers, is shrinking and has become toxic
(Image credit: © Angus McComiskey / Alamy)

Futurology: “the systematic forecasting of the future, especially from present trends in society”. The sole difference from Voodoo is that the latter sometimes works, so strong is the belief of its adherents. The most famous forecasters used to be sci-fi and fantasy writers such as H.G. Wells or Aldous Huxley, but later “futurists” (they liked to give their Voodoo a scientific gloss) abandoned ripping yarns in favour of pedantic tub-thumping – witness authors such as James Lovelock (Earth as “Mother Gaia”).

The most successful was Herman Kahn, founder of the Hudson Institute and role model for the insane eponymous Dr. Strangelove in the Stanley Kubrick film. A one-hour consultation on the future cost thousands and his forecasts, like all eminent futurists’, proved as reliable as tarot cards. So while trying to avoid their pratfalls, I give you the world in 2040.

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Jonathan Compton was MD at Bedlam Asset Management and has spent 30 years in fund management, stockbroking and corporate finance.