What "peak meat" tells us about forecasting
When it comes to warnings of societal change, it's best to take them with a big pinch of salt, says John Stepek.

Have we reached “peak meat”? The UN Food and Agriculture Organisation reckons that global meat production – which correlates strongly (unsurprisingly) with consumption – fell in 2019. What with the coronavirus outbreak, it looks as though production will fall this year too. Apparently we eat more meat when we dine out at restaurants, something that up until this month at least, most of us have been cutting back on and, partly as a result, that means meat consumption per head is set to fall to its lowest level in nine years. Could this be the start of something bigger?
The truth is I have no idea. On the one hand, veganism is definitely having a moment (according to Bloomberg, for example, a survey by the German agriculture ministry in May found that just 26% of respondents ate meat or sausage daily, compared to 34% in 2015). And a drop in global meat production for two years in a row is “unprecedented”, notes Nathaniel Bullard, again of Bloomberg.
On the other hand, it’s fair to say that this year is very unusual indeed in terms of its impact on both consumer behaviour and our income security, and that last year was pretty unusual too for meat production. African swine fever took its toll on China’s pig population, driving up pork prices, for example.
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE

Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
What interests me more about this story is that it’s a great illustration both of how flawed our forecasting ability is, and just how swiftly conventional wisdom changes. Just last May, a headline in The Economist proclaimed that “global meat-eating is on the rise, bringing surprising benefits”. The conventional wisdom at that point was that rising wealth and a growing global population would inevitably boost meat consumption. And yet today, less than 18 months later, we’re told by Bloomberg that one of the reasons we might have hit “peak meat” is that the global population is also growing more slowly than we’d expected – another big shift from what was once the conventional wisdom.
What’s the lesson for investors? Take declarations of hugely consequential societal change with a big pinch of salt. I probably don’t need to remind you that we’re hearing an awful lot of that right now, with confident predictions that Covid-19 will change the world forever. Not only will it stop us from eating meat, but we’re also going to work from home permanently (or have our jobs offshored to places where home-workers are cheaper and more skilled); never venture to the shops again when we can huddle inside, waiting for the Amazon van; and never, ever travel abroad again.
I’m not sure we buy any of that (listen to the latest MoneyWeek podcast to find out why Merryn and I are not convinced that the staycation trend will last). But even if you disagree, one way to defend against the peskily unpredictable nature of the future is to maintain a diversified portfolio. Which brings me to gold. As well as being key to a diversified portfolio, gold also appears to still be in a bull market despite a nasty correction this week. Dominic has some ideas on how to take advantage of that in this week's cover story.
And if you do think we’ve hit peak meat? The best bet might be to invest not in vegan burgers but in a poultry farm – chicken is apparently winning market share from beef in a big way. Good news for cows – not so much for hens.
Sign up for MoneyWeek's newsletters
Get the latest financial news, insights and expert analysis from our award-winning MoneyWeek team, to help you understand what really matters when it comes to your finances.
John Stepek is a senior reporter at Bloomberg News and a former editor of MoneyWeek magazine. He graduated from Strathclyde University with a degree in psychology in 1996 and has always been fascinated by the gap between the way the market works in theory and the way it works in practice, and by how our deep-rooted instincts work against our best interests as investors.
He started out in journalism by writing articles about the specific business challenges facing family firms. In 2003, he took a job on the finance desk of Teletext, where he spent two years covering the markets and breaking financial news.
His work has been published in Families in Business, Shares magazine, Spear's Magazine, The Sunday Times, and The Spectator among others. He has also appeared as an expert commentator on BBC Radio 4's Today programme, BBC Radio Scotland, Newsnight, Daily Politics and Bloomberg. His first book, on contrarian investing, The Sceptical Investor, was released in March 2019. You can follow John on Twitter at @john_stepek.
-
Are you one of 15 million people at risk of retirement poverty?
Two-fifths of people in the UK aren’t on track for a minimum lifestyle in retirement, new data shows. Are there steps you can take to boost your pension?
-
150 banking hubs now open across UK – is there one near you?
As the 150th banking hub opens its doors, a Post Office deal that offers basic banking services has also been extended until 2030. We explain what this means for you
-
What will the unravelling of US-China trade mean for the economy?
What will a US-China decoupling mean for the global economy?
-
What's next for Liberal Mark Carney after Canadian election win
Mark Carney will remain as Canadian prime minister after winning the country's election, despite falling short of a majority.
-
Could Javier Milei bring Argentina's economy back to 'normal'?
Javier Milei, president of Argentina, has been in office for more than 500 days. What will his leadership mean for the economy?
-
'Rachel Reeves' plan to force pension funds into UK assets won't work'
Opinion Hustling pension fund cash into British assets sounds like a good idea. It would be better to make Britain an attractive place to invest, says Matthew Lynn
-
Out of America's shadow: Why Trump's tariff chaos may be good for non-US stocks
Opinion Upending global investment and trade could benefit other countries at the expense of the US market, says Cris Sholto Heaton
-
Supersonic travel: How China could 'leapfrog' US and Europe's commercial aviation industry
Opinion Innovation in commercial aviation has been stuck for 60 years. A commercial supersonic jet might be back on the market soon, but will China get there first?
-
How British businesses can tackle Trump's tariffs
The majority of British businesses are likely to take a hit from the chaos caused by Trump’s tariffs to reorder global trade. Companies in the firing line face some difficult decisions, says David Prosser
-
Trump wants to colonise Mars – will it happen?
Donald Trump wants to plant the US flag on Mars. Could humans really live there?