With Brexit back in the news, which way now for the pound sterling?

Whether the UK and EU come to a Brexit deal or not, we’re unlikely to see any nasty surprises in the currency markets, says Dominic Frisby. Here, he explains why, and looks at what the coming days, weeks and months might hold for the pound.

Boris Johnson Ursula von der Leyen
Brexit: no surprises in the currency markets at least
(Image credit: © Aaron Chown - WPA Pool/Getty Images)

As we struggle towards “deal” or “no deal”, today we consider the outlook for the once great currency that is the pound sterling. With no deal looking likely last week, and now this week being told a deal is possible, you can assume that all outcomes are priced in. The forex markets will have observed the negotiators’ every utterance, every nuance, every syllable of their body language.

In other words, we shouldn’t get any surprises of the undesirable variety that so spooked markets as, for example, when the UK surprisingly voted “Leave” in 2016; when fat-fingered foreign traders fumbled a flash crash (it’s alliteration Wednesday) that same year; or when Covid-19 struck in 2020. So what might the coming days, weeks and months hold for the pound?

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Dominic Frisby

Dominic Frisby (“mercurially witty” – the Spectator) is as far as we know the world’s only financial writer and comedian. He is the author of the popular newsletter the Flying Frisby and is MoneyWeek’s main commentator on gold, commodities, currencies and cryptocurrencies. He has also taken several of his shows to the Edinburgh Festival Fringe.

His books are Daylight Robbery - How Tax Changed our Past and Will Shape our Future; Bitcoin: the Future of Money? and Life After the State - Why We Don't Need Government

Dominic was educated at St Paul's School, Manchester University and the Webber-Douglas Academy Of Dramatic Art. You can follow him on X @dominicfrisby