Latest articles by Alex Rankine
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The Bank of England's gloomy forecast for inflation and the UK economy
Analysis The Bank of England has warned that inflation will peak around 13% this year and the UK will fall into recession. Alex Rankine reports.
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Why complacent Germany needs to get a grip
Briefings The gas-supply crisis is merely the most conspicuous sign of the complacency and drift besetting Europe’s largest economy. Germany’s national business model needs an overhaul.
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China’s property downturn deepens
News Chinese house prices have fallen for ten months in a row, made worse by a residential “mortgage strike”.
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Enjoy the bear market rally while it lasts
News Investors seem to think that a weaker US economy will cool inflation and see the Fed relent on interest rate rises. But that optimism may be misplaced, with July’s stockmarket gains looking very much like a bear-market rally.
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Britain’s resilient blue chips – a refuge in the inflationary storm
News The UK's blue-chip FTSE 100 index has been the best-performing major stockmarket index so far this year.
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Will the euro crisis flare up again?
Briefings With Italy’s borrowing costs rising quickly, and inflation climbing, the European Central Bank has unveiled a new tool to help indebted states. Is it 2012 all over again?
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Beware of cheap emerging markets
News Emerging markets look cheap, but tread carefully – they tend to be highly cyclical and a global recession would weigh heavily on them.
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Who will follow Sri Lanka into a debt crisis?
News Sri Lanka defaulted on its debt in May as soaring global food prices and a tourism slowdown collided with years of profligate state spending. Which countries could follow?
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Chinese stocks are cheap – but for good reasons
News Chinese stocks are trading at an “undeniably cheap” 11.9 times earnings. But they are cheap for good reasons, and this may not be the buying opportunity it appears to be.
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Eurozone economy heads for paralysis
News Record high energy prices, the threat of recession in Germany and squabbling in Italy's government has left the eurozone fighting fires on all fronts.
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The junk-bond bubble bursts
News Yields in the US high-yield bond market (AKA junk bonds) have soared to more than 8% since the start of the year as prices collapse.
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An era of high inflation has arrived
News In recent weeks investors had started to bet on signs that inflation may be peaking – but we’re in a new economic age. Expect high inflation to be here for some time to come.
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Base metal prices are in freefall – will growth follow?
News The price of copper has fallen to its lowest level since November 2020, with aluminium, nickel and many other base metal prices in freefall, too.
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Investors dash into the US dollar
News The value of the US dollar has soared as investors pile in. The euro has hit parity, while the Japanese yen and the Swedish krona have fared even worse.
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The global property bubble bursts
News After a two-year long worldwide boom in house prices fuelled by ultra-low interest rates, central bankers are tightening monetary policy and the global property bubble is starting to deflate.
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Hong Kong’s crown slips as Singapore takes over
News As international sentiment sours on Hong Kong, other Asian financial hubs – primarily Singapore – are snapping up business.
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Price of gas soars as Moscow turns off the taps
News As Russia cuts its gas exports to the EU, the price of natural gas continues to rise. Restricted supplies could see energy rationing and recession in Germany, Europe’s biggest economy.
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Low growth and high inflation: a toxic cocktail for anxious markets
News Low growth, high inflation, central bank tightening, a strong dollar, and the risk of recession is proving a toxic cocktail for world stockmarkets – and for emerging markets in particular.
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Vietnam makes its mark on the global stage
News Electronics manufacturers are moving into Vietnam, partly in response to manufacturing delays caused by lockdowns in China. The country’s textile industry is booming, too.
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Oil shortage starts to curb demand
News The price of Brent crude oil is up by 475% since its March 2020 low. And when oil prices rise, people start to reduce consumption, leading to increased fears of a recession.
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Metals prices wobble on slowdown fears
News The S&P GSCI index of 24 major raw materials has fallen back 9% since mid-June on growing fears of a recession, and copper has hit a 16-month low after losing 22% since a peak in early March.
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Central banks are on course for recession
News The world’s central banks have found themselves behind the curve on inflation. Acting to tame it now runs the risk of sparking a recession.
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A new headache for the ECB
News Italy, the eurozone’s third-largest economy, has debt of €2.759trn – almost 150% of GDP. A crisis there would pose an existential risk to the euro.
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Private equity – the new kings of Wall Street
News The private equity sector has tripled in size over the last decade and now manages roughly $10trn of assets.
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