Features

Betting on politics: Brexit bets

Matthew Partridge looks at the various Brexit-related bets available in the market, in the light of the recent parliamentary vote.

932-May-634

Theresa May: a tough time over Brexit

Let's take a look at the various Brexit-related bets available in the market, in the light of the recent parliamentary vote. On Smarkets, punters have wagered £112,305 on the date which the UK will officially leave the EU. As you'd expect, an exit by the end of April is the favourite, but you can still get 2.9 (34.4%) on that date. Interestingly, the next favourite is not before 2021 at 4.3 (23.2%), suggesting that punters think there's a good chance Brexit might not happen.

Still, if the major betting exchanges aren't confident Brexit will occur on schedule, punters are much more certain that Theresa May's position is secure, at least for the next few weeks. There has been a flurry of activity on whether the prime minister will leave office before Brexit in the past few days, with £175,800 bet on Betfair alone. However, after briefly becoming favourite to leave office first, the odds are 1.46 (68.4%) on her staying in Downing Street until Brexit is complete.

Interestingly, when May does leave, Michael Gove's vocal support for the Withdrawal Agreement hasn't done him any harm, since he is now the favourite on Betfair to replace her. But it's a very fragmented field, with Gove at 6 (16.7%), Boris Johnson at 7.6 (13.2%), Sajid Javid at 9.8 (10.2%) and Dominic Raab at 10.5 (9.7%). The days when Jacob Rees-Mogg was considered the favourite for the Conservative leadership are well and truly over however the MP for North East Somerset is now out in eighth place at 32 (3.1%).

Recommended

How to prepare your business for Brexit
Small business

How to prepare your business for Brexit

Whether we have a Brexit deal or not, new procedures for importers and exporters will apply from 1 January. Get your business ready now.
27 Nov 2020
Furlough extension, corporation tax and green investment – the main points of the Budget
Budget

Furlough extension, corporation tax and green investment – the main points of the Budget

Rishi Sunak delivered his 2021 Budget, with measures to extend coronavirus support, get the economy back on its feet, and some first steps in paying f…
3 Mar 2021
What to watch out for in Budget 2021
Budget

What to watch out for in Budget 2021

In his 2021 Budget, Rishi Sunak will lay out his vision for post-Covid Britain – how to fix the public finances and repay all the pandemic stimulus wi…
2 Mar 2021
Where to get help taking your business online
Small business

Where to get help taking your business online

The pandemic has brought forward the transition to e-commerce, so businesses need to go digital. David Prosser explains the tools available to help ta…
2 Mar 2021

Most Popular

A beginner’s guide to bitcoin: how to buy bitcoin
Bitcoin

A beginner’s guide to bitcoin: how to buy bitcoin

For the novice, buying bitcoin can be a daunting prospect. Here, Dominic Frisby outlines the process from start to finish.
2 Mar 2021
A beginner’s guide to bitcoin: what is bitcoin?
Bitcoin

A beginner’s guide to bitcoin: what is bitcoin?

As a completely novel concept for many people, bitcoin can take a little effort to get to grips with. In the first of a short series on the cryptocurr…
1 Mar 2021
What is “yield curve control” and why is it coming to a central bank near you?
Government bonds

What is “yield curve control” and why is it coming to a central bank near you?

Central banks around the world are determined not to let interest rates go up too quickly or by too much – a practice known as “yield curve control”. …
1 Mar 2021