Will the Fed really raise interest rates?

Investment guru Jeffrey Gundlach thinks the December American interest-rate rise is anything but a done deal.

Jeffrey Gundlach often disagrees with the consensus and is often proved right.For the past two years the co-founder of DoubleLine Capital, which has $80bn in assets under management, has stood almost alone in his bullish view on US government bonds, while most analysts have expected higher yields (reflecting falling prices). Having prevailed in that stand-off, he now says the December American interest-rate rise by the Federal Reserve is hardly the done deal the market thinks it is.

Why? For the same reason he's been bullish on bonds: he thinks deflationary forces around the world have been underestimated. There are signs of distress in both the leveraged-loan and high-yield bond markets, and commodities are at a 13-year low. "The markets are falling apart", implying a deteriorating global economy hardly the sort of environment in which dearer US money makes much sense.

Recommended

Bondholders beware – inflation is coming, says Jeremy Siegel
Inflation

Bondholders beware – inflation is coming, says Jeremy Siegel

With vaccines promising an end to lockdowns, inflation won't be far behind, warns Jeremy Siegel, professor of finance at Wharton.
26 Jan 2021
Joe Biden’s spending spree will lift American spirits and markets – but it comes with a sting in the tail
US stockmarkets

Joe Biden’s spending spree will lift American spirits and markets – but it comes with a sting in the tail

New US president Joe Biden is planning to throw trillions of dollars in stimulus at his country’s economy. Markets will love that. But it comes with a…
25 Jan 2021
Beware: inflation is starting to stir in the US
Inflation

Beware: inflation is starting to stir in the US

With US consumer prices up by 1.4% in the last year, concern about inflation is now everywhere.
22 Jan 2021
Inflation looks likely to take off this year – but there’s one key risk
Inflation

Inflation looks likely to take off this year – but there’s one key risk

With the world’s governments spending money hand over fist, inflation looks certain to take off at some point. But China could change all that. John S…
19 Jan 2021

Most Popular

Bitcoin does consume a lot of energy – but here’s why it’s worth it
Bitcoin

Bitcoin does consume a lot of energy – but here’s why it’s worth it

Some people question bitcoin’s legitimacy because it uses huge amounts of electricity to maintain its network. But that’s not a failing, says Dominic …
27 Jan 2021
Joe Biden’s spending spree will lift American spirits and markets – but it comes with a sting in the tail
US stockmarkets

Joe Biden’s spending spree will lift American spirits and markets – but it comes with a sting in the tail

New US president Joe Biden is planning to throw trillions of dollars in stimulus at his country’s economy. Markets will love that. But it comes with a…
25 Jan 2021
Think Tesla is a bubble? This might be the best way to bet on it bursting
Oil

Think Tesla is a bubble? This might be the best way to bet on it bursting

The huge rise in Tesla’s share price means that, by market value, it’s now the sixth-largest company in the US and and the world’s biggest car-maker. …
25 Jan 2021