Why investment forecasting is futile
Every year events prove that forecasting is futile and 2020 was no exception, says Bill Miller, chairman and chief investment officer of Miller Value Partners.
Every year events prove that forecasting is futile and 2020 was no exception, says Bill Miller, chairman and chief investment officer of Miller Value Partners, in his latest quarterly letter to investors. It’s far better to understand what is going on today than to make guesses about the future, says Miller, who made his name at Legg Mason when his fund beat the S&P 500 for 15 years in a row from 1991 to 2005.
Today “we are in a bull market in stocks that began in March 2009 and that shows no sign of ending”. Valuations are high, but “not as high as they look”, given a supportive Federal Reserve and a strong recovery from coronavirus. Markets may even be underestimating the rebound’s likely strength. If growth beats hopes, the “rotation to value” should continue, which would be good news for “some groups that have trailed the market for years, such as banks and energy”. Added to that, inflation is likely to rise more sharply than expected “as the economy becomes more ‘normal’ in the second half”. Commodities and precious metals have already enjoyed significant gains, which should “continue in 2021”.
Miller also views ongoing loose monetary policy as good news for bitcoin, which he has been actively investing in since at least early 2017. He notes that several companies already hold some of their cash in bitcoin, a “relative trickle” that could “become a torrent” if inflation picks up. “Warren Buffett famously called bitcoin ‘rat poison’. He may well be right. Bitcoin could be rat poison, and the rat could be cash.”
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE

Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Get the latest financial news, insights and expert analysis from our award-winning MoneyWeek team, to help you understand what really matters when it comes to your finances.
MoneyWeek is written by a team of experienced and award-winning journalists, plus expert columnists. As well as daily digital news and features, MoneyWeek also publishes a weekly magazine, covering investing and personal finance. From share tips, pensions, gold to practical investment tips - we provide a round-up to help you make money and keep it.
-
Tesla seeks approval to supply electricity to UK homes – could it disrupt the energy market?
Tesla has applied for a license to supply UK households with electricity, but taking on the biggest providers could prove challenging
-
Most Brits unaware onshore bonds can help beat inheritance tax – here’s how
A little-known perk of certain types of bonds can let your loved ones off the hook when it comes to inheritance tax – but two-thirds of people have never heard of them
-
Profit from the potential in funds focusing on private assets
Opinion Charlotte Cuthbertson and Tom Treanor of the Migo Opportunities Trust highlight three funds where they'd put their money
-
Camellia: an unusual tea producer that rewards patient investors
Camellia is shedding its eclectically diverse portfolio of assets to concentrate on its strengths. For investors, it's a rare opportunity
-
How to approach active ETFs
Active ETFs have several advantages over other forms of open-ended investment vehicles, says David Prosser
-
How to cash in on investment trusts that are selling up
Managed wind-downs and portfolio sales can be an attractive opportunity for patient investors
-
Emerging markets must deliver growth
Emerging markets have benefitted from the rotation away from the US – but can the rally last?
-
8 of the best houses for sale with dining terraces
The best houses for sale with dining terraces – from an Arts & Crafts property in Great Missenden, Buckinghamshire, to a duplex apartment in a garden square in Kensington with a decked roof terrace
-
US stocks are more expensive than ever after Trump's tariffs
We don’t need to second-guess the effect of Trump's tariffs to think that the rest of the world offers better value
-
How to use SAYE and SIP schemes to multiply your money
Employers’ savings or share-incentive plans like SAYE and SIP schemes can help top up your pension