"We are not in a biotech bubble, period," insists David Seaburg of asset manager Cowen & Co. But it's getting harder to share his faith. In the past ten years, the Nasdaq Biotechnology index has risen almost sixfold; in the past five, it has quadrupled. It's reminiscent of the 1990s tech bubble.
Around 75% of firms in the index have no profits, and just five account for over 80% of the whole sector's earnings, says Fidelity's Tom Stevenson in The Sunday Telegraph. This is "fertile ground" for market bubbles.
"Take a plausible growth story, sprinkle with six years of emergency-level interest rates and don't be surprised when strange things happen." Valuations certainly look stretched the index is on an eye-watering price/earnings (p/e) ratio of 425, and a 2016 p/e of 34. Stevenson warns that rallies driven by momentum rather than fundamentals are vulnerable to sudden and nasty collapses.
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
-
Shein shifts IPO focus to Hong KongThe development piles fresh pressure on London’s beleaguered stock market, which many had hoped would be boosted by Shein’s IPO
-
Scientists turn lead into gold – could it wreck the yellow metal's price?Medieval alchemists have been vindicated after scientists turned lead into gold, but the results aren’t going to crash the gold price any time soon
-
What would the greatest mathematician of the Middle Ages say about gold today?Sponsored Italian mathematician Fibonacci is most famous for a curious sequence of numbers. Continuing his series on technical analysis, Dominic Frisby explains what these numbers are, and what they can tell us about gold’s next move.
-
How moving averages can reveal trades worth betting on – and ones to avoidSponsored Dominic Frisby looks in more depth at how moving averages can help you catch turning points in markets and help you decide which trades are worth pursuing.
-
This chart pattern could be extraordinarily bullish for goldCharts The mother of all patterns is developing in the gold charts, says Dominic Frisby. And if everything plays out well, gold could hit a price that investors could retire on.
-
Believe it or not, this market is a “buy”Charts With the world in the state it’s in and the market so volatile, buying stocks right now might go against all your instincts. But that’s just what you should be doing, says Dominic Frisby. Here, he explains why.
-
Chart of the week: avocados and bitcoin are in syncCharts An amusing new spurious correlation has been spotted between the price of bitcoin and Mexican Hass avocados. In reality, of course, they have nothing to do with each other beyond “superficial price action”.
-
Chart of the week: Kuwait's stockmarket is ready for take-offCharts Kuwait's stockmarket is due to be promoted from “frontier” status to an emerging market by index provider MSCI next June. That should entice almost $10bn of global investors’ cash into the country.
-
Chart of the week: US stocks outrun profitsCharts The US stockmarket has become totally detached from underlying profits of its constituent companies over the past three years.
-
Chart of the week: Dr Copper diagnoses an ailing economyCharts The price of copper has slipped by a fifth this year and is now at a near-two-year low of around $5,600 a tonne.
