Over the past 15 years, the notion that a company exists to make money for its shareholders has often been cast aside. Many technology companies saw their share prices rocket even as they drowned in red ink. This was partly due to a genuine belief that the losses were necessary for them to grow enough to reach critical scale. However, near-zero interest rates also explain the trend; they meant that investors had little alternative but to be patient. However, with interest rates now back to normal levels, such companies are being battered.
Chief among them is Ocado (LSE: OCDO). This company pioneered the idea of ordering your groceries online and having them delivered to your home. It is so closely associated with online food shopping that it has almost achieved verb status, in the same way that Google is inextricably linked with search engines. Surveys show that 75% of Britons are aware of the brand. But while Google has been able to make billions in profits, Ocado has not succeeded in converting its ubiquity into hard cash.
Ocado's downfall comes as online shopping declines
There are two reasons for this. While online shopping got a big boost during the pandemic, people quickly returned to the shops once restrictions were lifted, which is not surprising given that the vast majority of people in the UK live close to a supermarket. Even today, online shopping only makes up around 13% of food sales in the UK (and a similar figure in the US). Crucially, the supermarkets themselves adapted by launching their own online services, taking advantage of their huge networks. The upshot? Ocado now accounts for barely more than one in 10 online grocery sales.
MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Worse, Ocado’s online shop is now embroiled in a legal dispute with Marks & Spencer (which owns 50% of Ocado.com) over payments related to Ocado missing contractual targets. While Ocado is attempting to reinvent itself as a technology company that can help other supermarkets develop their own online operations, this strategy is also running into problems.
Canadian supermarket chain Sobeys recently announced it would delay the opening of its Vancouver customer fulfilment centre, which Ocado was supposed to run. The group also still trades at 0.85 times sales, much more than 0.45 times for Marks & Spencer, 0.31 for Tesco and 0.18 for J Sainsbury – yet all of these companies are making a profit. The shares remain overvalued.
At the same time, all technical indicators suggest that the market is souring on Ocado. The stock has lagged the market by 60% over the last six months, and trades below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. What’s more, the company was demoted from the FTSE 100 index a few weeks ago. I suggest shorting the shares at their current price of 320p at £6 per 1p. Cover your position at 480p, which would give you a total downside of £960.
This article was first published in MoneyWeek's magazine. Enjoy exclusive early access to news, opinion and analysis from our team of financial experts with a MoneyWeek subscription.
-
Can you rely on artificial intelligence for financial advice?AI still has plenty to learn when it comes to financial planning, research suggests
-
‘Knowing you don’t have to suffer in silence is huge’ – why MoneyWeek is supporting Trussell this winterMoneyWeek is supporting Trussell, an anti-poverty charity and community of food banks, for our 2025 Christmas charity appeal
-
Who is Jared Isaacman, SpaceX astronaut and Trump's pick as NASA chief?Jared Isaacman is a close ally of Elon Musk and the first non-professional astronaut to walk in space. Now, he is in charge of NASA
-
Three solid British stocks going cheapOpinion Ian Lance and Nick Purves, fund managers at Temple Bar Investment Trust, highlight three British stocks with strong cash flows and robust balance sheets
-
Is now a good time to invest in Barclays?Barclays' profit growth is healthy, and the stock is cheap compared with its rivals
-
Profit from other investors’ trades with CME GroupCME Group is one of the world’s largest exchanges, which gives it a significant competitive advantage
-
Key lessons from the MoneyWeek Wealth Summit 2025: focus on safety, value and growthOur annual MoneyWeek Wealth Summit featured a wide array of experts and ideas, and celebrated 25 years of MoneyWeek
-
Defeat into victory: the key to Next CEO Simon Wolfson's successOpinion Next CEO Simon Wolfson claims he owes his success to a book on military strategy in World War II. What lessons does it hold, and how did he apply them to Next?
-
Aircraft leasing companies can lift investors' portfoliosThe aircraft leasing business is a safer way to cash in on air travel and its booming demand. David Prosser explains how it works and how to access it
-
How to find value in Asian small cap stocksThree competing Asian investment trusts all have good records, but this one is the obvious choice at present, says Max King
