Sotheby’s fishes for art collectors – will it succeed?

Summer is over, and the all-important autumn auction sales are upon us. For auction house Sotheby’s, this season is even more important than usual. In July, it reported a pre-tax loss of $248 million for the previous 12 months, double that in 2024. So, every sale counts – or does it?

The trouble that Sotheby’s is facing, like all auction houses, is the triple threat from political uncertainty, relatively high interest rates and shrinking demand from art collectors in Asia. That means consignors have been “loath to part with their most prized artworks – unsure of being able to attract top prices”, says The New York Times.

Fortunately, Sotheby’s has been able to get its hands on the $400 million art collection of Leonard Lauder, the cosmetics tycoon who died in June. It is selling the core of the collection in an evening sale on 18 November in New York and, of the 24 lots, it is the portrait of “a striking young woman with dark hair and pale skin, clad in a flowing, gauzy white dress, and patterned blue robe” that has attracted the most excitement, says Sarah Cascone on Artnet News. Portrait of Elisabeth Lederer (1914-1916) by Gustav Klimt depicts the daughter of one of the Austrian artist’s most important patrons. If Sotheby’s is able to sell it for more than the $150 million it says the painting is worth, it would “obliterate” the current $108.4 million record price for a painting by Klimt, which was set by the sale of Lady With a Fan in 2023.

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A roll of the dice for Sotheby's

The danger for Sotheby’s, as The New York Times notes, is that it has guaranteed the Lauder estate a minimum price for the painting. It is unclear whether Sotheby’s has offset that risk through third-party guarantors, which is standard practice. But still, “the question I would ask is if Sotheby’s is making money from this. Or are they losing money to create an appearance of confidence,” Jacob King, an art adviser, tells the paper. In March, Sotheby’s failed to sell Alberto Giacometti’s 1955 sculpture Grande tête mince, the “$70 million star” of the spring season. Art-market watchers will be watching to see if the confidence Sotheby’s has sought to convey with the guarantee is more than an illusion.

Last week, Christie’s offered a ray of hope that there are still deep-pocketed buyers out there, in Asia. It sold Buste de femme (1944) by Pablo Picasso in Hong Kong for HK$196.75 million (£18.9 million) – well above the HK$106 million (£10.1 million) estimate. Coincidentally, Lucien Paris is selling a second portrait of Picasso’s wartime muse, Dora Maar, on 24 October. It is the first time Buste de femme au chapeau à fleurs (1943), conservatively valued at €8 million, has been seen in public for 80 years.

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