What’s happening with UK house prices? Latest property forecasts for 2026
With mortgage rates creeping back up and ongoing market volatility, can we expect house prices to slide?
Sam Walker
The inflationary impact of the conflict in the Middle East is threatening to put a dampener on house price growth in 2026.
Housing market sentiment was subdued last year as growth stalled due to falling stamp duty thresholds in March 2025 and buyers and sellers remaining tentative in the build-up to the Autumn Budget. Higher mortgage rates also weighed down on property prices.
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But what are the other house price indices reporting? Here’s everything you need to know.
What is the current average house price in the UK?
There are five main house price indices measuring how much UK house prices have gone up or down over the past month and year: HM Land Registry/Office for National Statistics (ONS), Halifax, Nationwide, Zoopla and Rightmove.
HM Land Registry UK House Price Index
The most authoritative is HM Land Registry as its data includes cash purchases as well as homes financed through a mortgage. Its data is published on a six-week time lag though, meaning it’s more retrospective than other house price indices.
According to the latest available Land Registry data for February, released in April 2026, the average UK house price is worth £267,957.
This may not factor in the Iran war yet but it shows annual growth rose from 1% in January to 1.2% in February and average prices were up 0.1% on a monthly basis.
Nationwide House Price Index
The most recent Nationwide data reveals house prices rose by 0.9% in the month to March, up from £273,176.
Nationwide puts the average UK house price at £277,186, as of March 2026.
Halifax House Price Index
The latest Halifax House Price Index (HPI) shows the average UK house price fell by 0.5% between February and March to £299,677.
The lender put the drop down to the conflict in the Middle East seeing mortgage rates rise and raising concerns interest rates may not be cut in 2026. This data was published in April.
Rightmove House Price Index
Unlike Nationwide and Halifax’s HPIs, which are based on the building society and bank’s valuations at the mortgage-approval stage, Rightmove’s HPI is based on asking prices.
According to the latest data from Rightmove, the average UK property asking price is £373,971 (April), up 0.8% from £371,042 in March.
Rightmove said the market was remaining steady despite recent surges in mortgage rates, although it said it was still too early to understand how the Iran war was affecting the market and May’s data should give a better indication of its impact.
Zoopla House Price Index
The Zoopla house price index uses sold prices, mortgage valuations, and data for agreed sales to calculate house prices for any given month.
The property portal’s latest index, published in March said the average UK house price is £270,500 as of February 2026, up from £269,900 in January 2026.
However, it said demand from buyers in March was down by 13% year-on-year due to rising mortgage rates and uncertainty over where the Middle East conflict is headed.
Which UK regions are seeing the strongest house price growth?
Despite the challenges facing the market, some regions are experiencing major surges in house prices. Northern Ireland is one.
The country is experiencing major growth, according to the main house price indices.
Land Registry figures show average property prices in Northern Ireland are up 7.5% annually to £196,000.
Meanwhile, average house prices in the 12 months to February 2026 increased by 0.8% in England to £290,000, by 2.5% in Wales to £210,000 and by 2.3% in Scotland to £187,000.
Of the English regions, annual house price inflation was highest in Yorkshire and the Humber, where prices increased by 3.9% annually in February 2026.
Meanwhile, average prices actually decreased in London by 3.3% on average.
Rightmove’s latest data shows asking prices rose by 3.7% to £208,122 in the year to April while Nationwide said annual house price growth in Scotland was 3% in the year to March (£191,747).
How is the Iran conflict affecting confidence in the market?
As well as the five main HPIs released on a regular basis, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) also publishes a monthly Residential Market Survey.
The report generates net balance scores between -100 and +100 in response to a series of questions put to its members (estate agents and surveyors) about how the housing market has changed.
RICS reports at the start of 2026 had suggested the housing market was showing positive signs, but now members are warning tensions in the Gulf are weighing down on the near-term outlook.
The March report shows new buyer enquiries slipped to -39%, down from -29% in February, the weakest figure since August 2023.
The number of agreed sales also dropped from -13% in February to -34% in March, the softest reading since the summer of 2023.
For house prices, the net score was -23% in March, down from -14% in February and -10% in January.
Meanwhile, RICS members who were asked about their expectations for near-term house prices gave a net balance score of -43%, a sharp drop from -19% in February.
Sarah Coles, head of personal finance for AJ Bell, said: “Life is likely to get even tougher for sellers in the coming months, as mortgage rates threaten to keep rising and sentiment cools.
"The war in Iran is taking a toll on the market and raising inflation fears. This pushes up interest rate expectations, powering gilt yields which make fixed rate mortgages more expensive. It means more buyers could find themselves priced out of the market, so sellers have to cut their prices to make a sale or hang on in the hope that things improve.
“It makes life harder for every seller, but can cause real issues for those planning to downsize. If this is part of your plan for income in retirement, you need to bear in mind the difficulty of timing a sale and the fact you may end up needing to part with the property when the market is disappointing. It’s why the core of your retirement income should be your pension, which offers far more liquidity and flexibility.”
Will house prices rise in 2026 and beyond?
At the start of the year, major lenders and estate agents were forecasting house prices to rise by up to 3% in 2026.
Estate agency Hamptons expected property values to grow by 2.5% by Q4, while Halifax forecasted they would edge up by between 1% and 3%.
Savills predicted a 2% rise while in the four years between 2027 and 2030, it said it expected to see prices grow by 4%, 5%, 5.5% and 4%, respectively, in part due to wages rising by a forecasted 22% between 2025 and 2029 and improved economic growth.
Meanwhile, Nationwide’s House Price Review, published in December 2025, suggested property prices will rise between 2% and 4% in 2026 due to falling mortgage rates and as wage growth outpaces property price growth.
However, the ripple effects of tensions in the Middle East have prompted some economists and analysts to review their forecasts for the year.
Economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics have adjusted their predictions for house price growth for 2026 from 3% to 1%.
Meanwhile, housing analysts polled by Reuters news agency in March forecasted property price growth of 2.5% in 2026, down from 2.8% in December.
How have mortgage interest rate changes impacted buyer affordability in the UK?
At the start of the year, many analysts hoped falling mortgage rates would help more people onto the property ladder.
Savills predicted the number of people buying homes between 2025 and 2030 will be boosted by falling mortgage rates while more relaxed affordability tests from lenders could boost transaction volumes.
But mortgage rates have actually been on the rise since the outbreak of the Iran war in February, going back above 5% on average, which could hit demand.
There are also fears that interest rates may have to rise to offset the threat of stagflation.
L&C Mortgages remortgage tracker shows that the average of the top ten lenders’ best two year remortgage fixed rates has already jumped from 3.77% at the beginning of March to 5.01% today, driving the cost of a £200,000 25-year repayment mortgage up by almost £140 per month.
David Hollingworth, associate director at L&C Mortgages, said: “No one will be surprised to see the impact of the Iran conflict feeding into a higher rate of inflation, driven largely by the increase in the cost of oil. Mortgage borrowers are already well aware of the consequence of that inflationary pressure, as fixed rates have spiked since the beginning of the war.
“Homeowners will be turning their attention to the Bank of England’s interest decisions, hoping for clues on the direction of travel for base rate. Higher inflation typically leads to higher interest rates but if a resolution to the Iran conflict can be found and inflation peaks at a lower level than originally feared, it could calm the need for base rate hikes.”
It remains to be seen whether mortgage rates will go up or down over the coming months. Should tensions ease, it could lead to mortgage rates falling later on in 2026, the question is how long buyers and sellers are willing to wait.
