Covid-19 has pushed the global economy into the worst downturn since the Great Depression, says The Economist. During the 2008 crisis, real house prices fell by 10%, and similar pain was expected this time. Yet house prices in developed countries rose by 5% in the second quarter. In Germany, they were up by an annual 11% in August.
There are two main causes. Firstly, massive monetary stimulus from central banks has kept borrowing costs low. At the beginning of the year a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in America carried a 3.7% annual interest rate. Today the rate is 2.9%.
Secondly, governments have stepped in with massive fiscal support. Thanks to furlough schemes and other measures, household disposable income in the G7 was “about $100bn higher” than “before the pandemic” in the second quarter. Elsewhere, such as in Spain and Japan, governments have suspended mortgage repayments and eased repayment terms respectively.
MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
The boom is also being driven by a shortage of homes, says Nicole Friedman in The Wall Street Journal. In the US, the number of single-family homes for sale in July hit its lowest level for the month since records began in 1982. New home construction in the country has never regained its mid-2000s highs, and that structural problem is being aggravated by homeowners reluctant to move, owing to economic anxiety and fear of being infected with the virus by visiting buyers.
The most overpriced markets
Hong Kong remains the world’s most unaffordable major city. The latest UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index, which monitors rent-to-income levels and “excessive lending”, reports that it would take 20 years for a skilled service worker in the city to save enough money to acquire a 650-square-foot apartment. The equivalent figure for London is about 15 years.
The average cost of a residential property in Hong Kong is a “staggering $1.23m”, notes Jason Hung in The Diplomat. Yet the city is becoming slightly more affordable as foreign investors pull back in response to the new national security law. Home rents fell by an annual 9.2% in August and commercial property has slipped by 30% over the past 12 months.
The UBS index shows that many European cities are overvalued, writes Diana Olick for CNBC. Munich and Frankfurt top the bubble list, while Paris and Amsterdam also look frothy. Beyond Europe, Toronto and Hong Kong are at risk of a real-estate bubble. London, Tokyo and New York are overvalued but not in bubble territory, while Chicago looks undervalued. Rents are falling in most cities, says Mark Haefele of UBS Global Wealth Management, so a “correction phase” for property prices in the world’s great metropolises could be looming.
-
Boost for over 100,000 families on Child Benefit as new HMRC payment system rolled outThousands of households will no longer have to pay the dreaded High Income Child Benefit Charge through self-assessment
-
Are you being haunted by the ghost of Christmas past? How festive cutbacks could boost your long-term wealthThe average family spends around £1,000 over the Christmas season. Here’s how much you could have gained if you had invested some of the money instead.
-
Stock markets have a mountain to climb: opt for resilience, growth and valueOpinion Julian Wheeler, partner and US equity specialist, Shard Capital, highlights three US stocks where he would put his money
-
The steady rise of stablecoinsInnovations in cryptocurrency have created stablecoins, a new form of money. Trump is an enthusiastic supporter, but its benefits are not yet clear
-
SRT Marine Systems: A leader in marine technologySRT Marine Systems is thriving and has a bulging order book, says Dr Michael Tubbs
-
Goodwin: A superlative British manufacturer to buy nowVeteran engineering group Goodwin has created a new profit engine. But following its tremendous run, can investors still afford the shares?
-
A change in leadership: Is US stock market exceptionalism over?US stocks trailed the rest of the world in 2025. Is this a sign that a long-overdue shift is underway?
-
A reckoning is coming for unnecessary investment trustsInvestment trusts that don’t use their structural advantages will find it increasingly hard to survive, says Rupert Hargreaves
-
Metals and AI power emerging marketsThis year’s big emerging market winners have tended to offer exposure to one of 2025’s two winning trends – AI-focused tech and the global metals rally
-
8 of the best houses for sale with beautiful fireplacesThe best houses for sale with beautiful fireplaces – from a 15th-century cottage in Kent to a 17th-century palazzo in Oxfordshire
