Is India still a good investment?

India's long-term story is compelling, but after a spectacular bull run, warning signs are starting to show. Is investing worth the risk?

Taj Mahal on the south bank of the Yamuna river in Agra, Uttar Pradesh, India
(Image credit: Getty Images)

“India: too expensive or the world’s best growth story?” asked one of the attendees during the emerging markets session at MoneyWeek’s reader conference earlier this month, concisely summing up the dilemma for investors. India has one of the simplest and most compelling narratives of any long-term bull market: young demographics, vast potential for catch-up growth, unusually large and high-quality stock market by EM standards, and a record of considerable progress in recent years. Yet it’s still hard to feel entirely comfortable about paying 25 times earnings for it.

This is not a new dilemma. India has long been an expensive market relative to its peers. The chart shows the price/earnings ratio for the broad market stretching back almost 30 years: ignore the trough and spike in 2020/2021– caused by the pandemic panic and subsequent impact on earnings – and note that the market actually looks cheaper than it did at the end of the last decade, even though it has more than doubled since then. It has rarely dropped below 15 since the start of the 2000s, meaning that it has usually been at the upper end of the EM peer group.

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Cris Sholto Heaton

Cris Sholto Heaton is an investment analyst and writer who has been contributing to MoneyWeek since 2006 and was managing editor of the magazine between 2016 and 2018. He is especially interested in international investing, believing many investors still focus too much on their home markets and that it pays to take advantage of all the opportunities the world offers. He often writes about Asian equities, international income and global asset allocation.

Cris began his career in financial services consultancy at PwC and Lane Clark & Peacock, before an abrupt change of direction into oil, gas and energy at Petroleum Economist and Platts and subsequently into investment research and writing. In addition to his articles for MoneyWeek, he also works with a number of asset managers, consultancies and financial information providers.

He holds the Chartered Financial Analyst designation and the Investment Management Certificate, as well as degrees in finance and mathematics. He has also studied acting, film-making and photography, and strongly suspects that an awareness of what makes a compelling story is just as important for understanding markets as any amount of qualifications.