Is India still a good investment?
India's long-term story is compelling, but after a spectacular bull run, warning signs are starting to show. Is investing worth the risk?
“India: too expensive or the world’s best growth story?” asked one of the attendees during the emerging markets session at MoneyWeek’s reader conference earlier this month, concisely summing up the dilemma for investors. India has one of the simplest and most compelling narratives of any long-term bull market: young demographics, vast potential for catch-up growth, unusually large and high-quality stock market by EM standards, and a record of considerable progress in recent years. Yet it’s still hard to feel entirely comfortable about paying 25 times earnings for it.
This is not a new dilemma. India has long been an expensive market relative to its peers. The chart shows the price/earnings ratio for the broad market stretching back almost 30 years: ignore the trough and spike in 2020/2021– caused by the pandemic panic and subsequent impact on earnings – and note that the market actually looks cheaper than it did at the end of the last decade, even though it has more than doubled since then. It has rarely dropped below 15 since the start of the 2000s, meaning that it has usually been at the upper end of the EM peer group.
There have been weak patches, accompanied by the kind of events that always worry EM investors: the market struggled in the early 2010s amid high inflation and a series of political and corruption scandals, and again towards the end of the decade amid a sharp economic slowdown and problems in the shadow banking sector. Yet, in both cases, earnings growth eventually came through and the market went on to new highs.
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Is investing in India too risky?
Still, there are growing reasons to wonder if another tricky spell could be on the way. The government did unexpectedly poorly in the general election in June, which could hurt the prospects for further economic reforms. Company earnings suggest that weak consumption growth is spreading from the rural poor (who have benefited least from the boom of the last few years) to urban residents – exactly the opposite of what we would hope to see. Rising delinquencies at microfinance lenders may be a sign the credit cycle is souring. Now the decision by US prosecutors to lay bribery charges against billionaire Gautam Adani, a close ally of prime minister Narendra Modi, recalls those early 2010s scandals that helped shuffle the previous government out of power.
It’s impossible to say what the consequences of the Adani case will be. There is no prospect of him facing any direct legal risks within India. However, the country depends heavily on a handful of large business groups, of which Adani’s is the newest, to undertake major projects. This requires a lot of foreign capital. The charges may make it harder for Adani to raise funding overseas and potentially affect the speed and cost of financing for other projects as well. Less investment will hinder growth. That may mean weaker earnings, which would surely take some momentum out of the market. It’s too soon to call the top, but after such a strong run, the odds of a setback are clearly rising.
This article was first published in MoneyWeek's magazine. Enjoy exclusive early access to news, opinion and analysis from our team of financial experts with a MoneyWeek subscription.
Sign up to Money Morning
Our team, led by award winning editors, is dedicated to delivering you the top news, analysis, and guides to help you manage your money, grow your investments and build wealth.
Cris Sholto Heaton is an investment analyst and writer who has been contributing to MoneyWeek since 2006 and was managing editor of the magazine between 2016 and 2018. He is especially interested in international investing, believing many investors still focus too much on their home markets and that it pays to take advantage of all the opportunities the world offers. He often writes about Asian equities, international income and global asset allocation.
Cris began his career in financial services consultancy at PwC and Lane Clark & Peacock, before an abrupt change of direction into oil, gas and energy at Petroleum Economist and Platts and subsequently into investment research and writing. In addition to his articles for MoneyWeek, he also works with a number of asset managers, consultancies and financial information providers.
He holds the Chartered Financial Analyst designation and the Investment Management Certificate, as well as degrees in finance and mathematics. He has also studied acting, film-making and photography, and strongly suspects that an awareness of what makes a compelling story is just as important for understanding markets as any amount of qualifications.
-
8 of the best properties for sale with indoor swimming pools
The best properties for sale with indoor swimming pools – from an award-winning contemporary house in East Sussex, to a converted barn in Hampshire
By Natasha Langan Published
-
Chinese stocks slump on first trading day of 2025
Chinese stocks suffered in the new year from their worst first day of trading since 2016, despite a state stimulus package
By Alex Rankine Published
-
How did emerging markets perform in 2024?
Emerging markets underperformed their developed counterparts in 2024, but there are signs of recovery. We look at the biggest winners and losers of 2024, and the key trends shaping these markets
By Alex Rankine Published
-
How to find the best investment ideas that others will miss
Find the best investment ideas by observing trends and listening to anecdotes, says Max King
By Max King Published
-
South Korean won hits 15-year low – what it means for 'Korea discount'
After Yoon Suk Yeol's failure to declare martial law, South Korean markets are reeling, with the weakest won since 2009. Will this worsen the Korea discount?
By Alex Rankine Published
-
Has RIT Capital fallen out of favour?
RIT Capital saw its discount soar amid weak returns, and investors remain sceptical of a turnaround
By Max King Published
-
Why emerging markets are waiting for a weak dollar
Emerging markets have had a better year but, like everything else, are still lagging far behind the US
By Cris Sholto Heaton Published
-
Invest in sports: how to profit from the booming global industry
Whether it’s backing sports teams, the media networks that buy the rights or the firms that make the clobber, opportunities abound for investors
By Dr Matthew Partridge Published
-
Vietnamese tycoon Truong My Lan on death row over the world’s biggest bank fraud
Property tycoon Truong My Lan has been found guilty of a corruption scandal that dwarfs Malaysia’s 1MDB fraud and Sam Bankman-Fried’s crypto scam
By Jane Lewis Published
-
Japan’s medium-sized stocks provide shelter from trade wars
Nicholas Price, portfolio manager of Fidelity Japan Trust, tells us where to invest in Japan
By Nicholas Price Published