Investing in Philippines could be an attractive opportunity for anyone looking to tap into emerging markets.
The Philippines is something of “an afterthought for investors” in Asia, says The Economist. Local politics is often ugly and the infrastructure is unreliable, but GDP growth has been impressive, averaging 6% a year since 2012. The country of 115 million is in a “demographic sweet spot”. Half of the population is still rural, leaving plenty of scope for growth as urbanisation occurs.
While many of its neighbours fear the prospect of a Trump presidency and new tariffs, the Philippines looks unusually “Trump-proof”. Tariffs wouldn’t affect remittances from its two million citizens who work abroad, contributing 9% of GDP with the cash they send home to their families. Nor would tariffs dampen tourism, a sector in which this balmy, hospitable country enjoys “enormous untapped potential”. The local PSEi stock index has gained 2.8% so far this year, but has stagnated for most of the past decade. The cyclically adjusted price/earnings ratio of 14.8 is typical for an emerging market and similar to the UK.
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That is not cheap enough to tempt foreign investors, who have been net sellers of local stocks every year since 2018, says Ian Sayson on Bloomberg. More recently, Philippine stocks have proved especially vulnerable to rising US interest rates. “Still, as the US rates cycle turns markets might start to cotton on to one of Asia’s neglected growth stories. Investors need not jump in yet, but it’s one to watch.
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