In the latest betting on US politics, with just over a year until the next US presidential election, punters are putting Donald Trump as the favourite to win. With $5.99m matched on Betfair, Trump is at 2.82 (35.5%) to be the overall winner.
The full list breaks out as follows:
- Ex-President Trump is at 2.82 (35.5%)
- Incumbent Joe Biden is at 3.05 (32.8%)
- California governor Gavin Newsom is in third place at 15 (6.7%)
- Activist Robert Kennedy Jr, former first lady Michelle Obama and former ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley are tied for fourth place at 23 (4.3%).
- Ron DeSantis is at 27 (3.7%)
- Vice President Kamala Harris is at 47 (2.1%).
I think the markets are underestimating the chances of both Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, given that Biden seems committed to running. Even if he drops out, Harris has the weight of the vice presidency behind her. At the moment, polls have Biden neck-and-neck with all the main Republicans, and if Trump does indeed become the Republican nominee, Democrats will turn out in droves to make sure he doesn’t win.
MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
However, if you’ve already bet on them, don’t bet anymore. If Biden and Harris are undervalued, then Trump is overvalued. His legal woes aren’t going away, and while he may complain about being the victim of a supposed stitch-up, polls show that a sizeable number of his supporters will leave him if he ends up being convicted.
This makes Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis look like good value. I’ve already tipped DeSantis to win the Republican nomination and have a rule about tipping the exact same market twice. I’d therefore bet on a Biden/ Haley matchup on Betfair at 22 (4.5%).
I’d also bet on either Haley at 9.4 (10.6%), DeSantis at 38 (2.6%) or Sarah Huckabee Sanders at 25 (4%) to be the Republican vice-presidential candidate at combined odds of 17.2%. In that case put £6.16 of a £10 betting unit on Haley, £2.31 on Sanders and the rest on DeSantis.
This article was first published in MoneyWeek's magazine. Enjoy exclusive early access to news, opinion and analysis from our team of financial experts with a MoneyWeek subscription.
-
Electric vehicle drivers to be charged new per mile taxElectric vehicle drivers will be forced to pay a 3p per mile tax, as taxation will be brought closer in line with petrol and diesel cars
-
What does the Budget mean for the UK stock market?Stamp duty holidays were set against tax relief cuts in Rachel Reeves’s second Budget. We assess the new measures that could impact UK stocks.
-
Chen Zhi: the kingpin of a global conspiracyChen Zhi appeared to be a business prodigy investing in everything from real estate to airlines. Prosecutors allege he is the head of something more sinister
-
Canada will be a winner in this new era of deglobalisation and populismGreg Eckel, portfolio manager at Canadian General Investments, selects three Canadian stocks
-
Jim O’Neill on nearly 25 years of the BRICSJim O’Neill, who coined the acronym BRICS in 2001, tells MoneyWeek how the group is progressing
-
Build or innovate? How to solve the productivity puzzleOpinion There are two main schools of thought when it comes to solving the productivity puzzle, says David C. Stevenson
-
More clouds gather over renewable energy trusts – is there any hope for the sector?The outlook for renewable energy trusts has gone from bad to worse this year, with the industry being caught in a 'perfect storm'
-
Should ISA investors be forced to hold UK shares?The UK government would like ISA investors to hold more UK stocks – but many of us are already overexposed
-
Why Scotland's proposed government bonds are a terrible investmentOpinion Politicians in Scotland pushing for “kilts” think it will strengthen the case for independence and boost financial credibility. It's more likely to backfire
-
How Germany became the new sick man of EuropeFriedrich Merz, Germany's Keir Starmer, seems unable to tackle the deep-seated economic problems the country is facing. What happens next?
