Betting on US politics – who'll be the next US President?
In the latest betting on US politics, with just over a year until the next US presidential election, punters pick Donald Trump as the favourite.

In the latest betting on US politics, with just over a year until the next US presidential election, punters are putting Donald Trump as the favourite to win. With $5.99m matched on Betfair, Trump is at 2.82 (35.5%) to be the overall winner.
The full list breaks out as follows:
- Ex-President Trump is at 2.82 (35.5%)
- Incumbent Joe Biden is at 3.05 (32.8%)
- California governor Gavin Newsom is in third place at 15 (6.7%)
- Activist Robert Kennedy Jr, former first lady Michelle Obama and former ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley are tied for fourth place at 23 (4.3%).
- Ron DeSantis is at 27 (3.7%)
- Vice President Kamala Harris is at 47 (2.1%).
I think the markets are underestimating the chances of both Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, given that Biden seems committed to running. Even if he drops out, Harris has the weight of the vice presidency behind her. At the moment, polls have Biden neck-and-neck with all the main Republicans, and if Trump does indeed become the Republican nominee, Democrats will turn out in droves to make sure he doesn’t win.
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE

Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
However, if you’ve already bet on them, don’t bet anymore. If Biden and Harris are undervalued, then Trump is overvalued. His legal woes aren’t going away, and while he may complain about being the victim of a supposed stitch-up, polls show that a sizeable number of his supporters will leave him if he ends up being convicted.
This makes Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis look like good value. I’ve already tipped DeSantis to win the Republican nomination and have a rule about tipping the exact same market twice. I’d therefore bet on a Biden/ Haley matchup on Betfair at 22 (4.5%).
I’d also bet on either Haley at 9.4 (10.6%), DeSantis at 38 (2.6%) or Sarah Huckabee Sanders at 25 (4%) to be the Republican vice-presidential candidate at combined odds of 17.2%. In that case put £6.16 of a £10 betting unit on Haley, £2.31 on Sanders and the rest on DeSantis.
This article was first published in MoneyWeek's magazine. Enjoy exclusive early access to news, opinion and analysis from our team of financial experts with a MoneyWeek subscription.
Get the latest financial news, insights and expert analysis from our award-winning MoneyWeek team, to help you understand what really matters when it comes to your finances.

Matthew graduated from the University of Durham in 2004; he then gained an MSc, followed by a PhD at the London School of Economics.
He has previously written for a wide range of publications, including the Guardian and the Economist, and also helped to run a newsletter on terrorism. He has spent time at Lehman Brothers, Citigroup and the consultancy Lombard Street Research.
Matthew is the author of Superinvestors: Lessons from the greatest investors in history, published by Harriman House, which has been translated into several languages. His second book, Investing Explained: The Accessible Guide to Building an Investment Portfolio, is published by Kogan Page.
As senior writer, he writes the shares and politics & economics pages, as well as weekly Blowing It and Great Frauds in History columns He also writes a fortnightly reviews page and trading tips, as well as regular cover stories and multi-page investment focus features.
Follow Matthew on Twitter: @DrMatthewPartri
-
HMRC warning after scammers target 170k taxpayers – how to stay protected
Scammers are using increasingly sophisticated methods to trick people into sharing personal details or paying for fake self assessment tax refunds
-
Average homes in every English region are now liable for stamp duty – how much will you pay?
As average house prices in every English region are now above the stamp duty threshold, we look at how much tax you will pay.
-
The most likely outcome of the AI boom is a big fall
Opinion Like the dotcom boom of the late 1990s, AI is not paying off – despite huge investments being made in the hope of creating AI-based wealth
-
The rise of Robin Zeng: China’s billionaire battery king
Robin Zeng, a pioneer in EV batteries, is vying with Li Ka-shing for the title of Hong Kong’s richest person. He is typical of a new kind of tycoon in China
-
How retail investors can gain exposure to Lloyd’s of London
It’s hard for retail investors to get in on the action at Lloyd’s of London. Here are some of the ways to gain exposure
-
The goal of business is not profit, but virtue
Opinion Serve your customers well, and the profits will follow, according to a new book. It rarely works the other way around, says Stuart Watkins
-
Earnings estimates are a rigged game – especially in the US
The number of US stocks beating earnings estimates tells us only that guidance has deliberately been set too low
-
Why is Britain's industrial base crumbling?
Opinion More and more factories in the UK are closing, and the government doesn’t seem to care. What’s going on?
-
Scotland's former first minister Nicola Sturgeon leaves behind a toxic legacy
On the left, Nicola Sturgeon is seen as something of a political hero. That makes sense… but only if you exclude her actual record in office
-
How Trump's dog deals will damage global trade with the US
Opinion Some commentators are hailing Trump’s trading savvy. Are they right?