Betting on US politics – who'll be the next US President?

published 25 October 2023

In the latest betting on US politics, with just over a year until the next US presidential election, punters are putting Donald Trump as the favourite to win. With $5.99m matched on Betfair, Trump is at 2.82 (35.5%) to be the overall winner.

The full list breaks out as follows:

Ex-President Trump is at 2.82 (35.5%)
Incumbent Joe Biden is at 3.05 (32.8%)
California governor Gavin Newsom is in third place at 15 (6.7%)
Activist Robert Kennedy Jr, former first lady Michelle Obama and former ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley are tied for fourth place at 23 (4.3%).
Ron DeSantis is at 27 (3.7%)
Vice President Kamala Harris is at 47 (2.1%).

I think the markets are underestimating the chances of both Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, given that Biden seems committed to running. Even if he drops out, Harris has the weight of the vice presidency behind her. At the moment, polls have Biden neck-and-neck with all the main Republicans, and if Trump does indeed become the Republican nominee, Democrats will turn out in droves to make sure he doesn’t win.

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However, if you’ve already bet on them, don’t bet anymore. If Biden and Harris are undervalued, then Trump is overvalued. His legal woes aren’t going away, and while he may complain about being the victim of a supposed stitch-up, polls show that a sizeable number of his supporters will leave him if he ends up being convicted.

This makes Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis look like good value. I’ve already tipped DeSantis to win the Republican nomination and have a rule about tipping the exact same market twice. I’d therefore bet on a Biden/ Haley matchup on Betfair at 22 (4.5%).

I’d also bet on either Haley at 9.4 (10.6%), DeSantis at 38 (2.6%) or Sarah Huckabee Sanders at 25 (4%) to be the Republican vice-presidential candidate at combined odds of 17.2%. In that case put £6.16 of a £10 betting unit on Haley, £2.31 on Sanders and the rest on DeSantis.

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Matthew graduated from the University of Durham in 2004; he then gained an MSc, followed by a PhD at the London School of Economics.

He has previously written for a wide range of publications, including the Guardian and the Economist, and also helped to run a newsletter on terrorism. He has spent time at Lehman Brothers, Citigroup and the consultancy Lombard Street Research.

Matthew is the author of Superinvestors: Lessons from the greatest investors in history, published by Harriman House, which has been translated into several languages. His second book, Investing Explained: The Accessible Guide to Building an Investment Portfolio, is published by Kogan Page.

As senior writer, he writes the shares and politics & economics pages, as well as weekly Blowing It and Great Frauds in History columns He also writes a fortnightly reviews page and trading tips, as well as regular cover stories and multi-page investment focus features.

Follow Matthew on Twitter: @DrMatthewPartri