In the latest betting on US politics, with just over a year until the next US presidential election, punters are putting Donald Trump as the favourite to win. With $5.99m matched on Betfair, Trump is at 2.82 (35.5%) to be the overall winner.
The full list breaks out as follows:
- Ex-President Trump is at 2.82 (35.5%)
- Incumbent Joe Biden is at 3.05 (32.8%)
- California governor Gavin Newsom is in third place at 15 (6.7%)
- Activist Robert Kennedy Jr, former first lady Michelle Obama and former ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley are tied for fourth place at 23 (4.3%).
- Ron DeSantis is at 27 (3.7%)
- Vice President Kamala Harris is at 47 (2.1%).
I think the markets are underestimating the chances of both Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, given that Biden seems committed to running. Even if he drops out, Harris has the weight of the vice presidency behind her. At the moment, polls have Biden neck-and-neck with all the main Republicans, and if Trump does indeed become the Republican nominee, Democrats will turn out in droves to make sure he doesn’t win.
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
However, if you’ve already bet on them, don’t bet anymore. If Biden and Harris are undervalued, then Trump is overvalued. His legal woes aren’t going away, and while he may complain about being the victim of a supposed stitch-up, polls show that a sizeable number of his supporters will leave him if he ends up being convicted.
This makes Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis look like good value. I’ve already tipped DeSantis to win the Republican nomination and have a rule about tipping the exact same market twice. I’d therefore bet on a Biden/ Haley matchup on Betfair at 22 (4.5%).
I’d also bet on either Haley at 9.4 (10.6%), DeSantis at 38 (2.6%) or Sarah Huckabee Sanders at 25 (4%) to be the Republican vice-presidential candidate at combined odds of 17.2%. In that case put £6.16 of a £10 betting unit on Haley, £2.31 on Sanders and the rest on DeSantis.
This article was first published in MoneyWeek's magazine. Enjoy exclusive early access to news, opinion and analysis from our team of financial experts with a MoneyWeek subscription.
-
8 of the best converted properties for sale nowThe best converted properties for sale – from an apartment in the former Hartley’s Jam factory on London’s Southbank, to a converted 18th-century mill in Itteringham, Norfolk
-
How taking a two-year career break could leave a £26k hole in your pensionCareer breaks are increasingly common but it is important to take steps to protect your pension, as gaps compound over time
-
'Rachel Reeves' plan to force pension funds into UK assets won't work'Opinion Hustling pension fund cash into British assets sounds like a good idea. It would be better to make Britain an attractive place to invest, says Matthew Lynn
-
Supersonic travel: How China could 'leapfrog' US and Europe's commercial aviation industryOpinion Innovation in commercial aviation has been stuck for 60 years. A commercial supersonic jet might be back on the market soon, but will China get there first?
-
How British businesses can tackle Trump's tariffsThe majority of British businesses are likely to take a hit from the chaos caused by Trump’s tariffs to reorder global trade. Companies in the firing line face some difficult decisions, says David Prosser
-
Trump’s tariffs: what is he thinking and how should the UK respond?Every right-thinking person knows that free trade is a surer route to the wealth of nations than protectionism. So, what is Trump thinking?
-
Trump wants to colonise Mars – will it happen?Donald Trump wants to plant the US flag on Mars. Could humans really live there?
-
Why stagflation now seems like America's "optimistic scenario"Investors have gone into tariff shock, and stagflation could now be the optimistic scenario for the US economy.
-
Why are energy bills so expensive in the UK?Electricity bills in the UK are higher than in any comparable rich country. Some blame the net-zero zealotry of the government for that. What is really to blame for high energy bills?
-
Will Putin invade Europe? Why investors know Russia is a paper tigerOpinion Markets are right to ignore talk of Putin invading Europe, says Max King.
