Chinese stocks slump on first trading day of 2025
Chinese stocks suffered in the new year from their worst first day of trading since 2016, despite a state stimulus package
Chinese shares rose 15% in 2024 for their first annual gain since 2020, says Bloomberg News. But “sentiment remains fragile”, with the CSI 300 index enduring its worst first trading day of a new year since 2016. Most of last year’s equity gains came following a “late September stimulus blitz”. Yet since then trading has been “range-bound” as investors wait for official announcements of more economic stimulus.
Why are Chinese stocks tumbling?
Stock markets have been cheered by a $1.4 trillion package of support for indebted local governments and promises of easier monetary policy, but bonds are telling “a bleaker story”, says Jacky Wong in The Wall Street Journal. Local bond yields have been falling – suggesting investors anticipate low inflation and weaker growth.
China’s 30-year bond yield traded at more than 4% in 2018, but recently fell below 2%, less than the equivalent in deflation-prone Japan. Japan learnt the hard way that “it takes strong, overwhelming stimulus to exit a deflationary spiral”. Markets aren’t convinced help on that scale is in the pipeline in China.
MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
State stimulus certainly moves markets in the short term, says Nicholas Spiro in the South China Morning Post. This autumn’s announcements saw the CSI 300 rocket 32.5% between September 23 and October 8. Yet despite continued measures aimed at stabilising the property market and helping consumption, trading has turned “volatile” in recent months. “The size... of the stimulus package” may be “less consequential than previously assumed”.
Economists are also concerned about deeper “structural challenges, including heavily indebted local governments, an ageing population” and “excessive dependence on exports” says Reshma Kapadia in Barron’s. But stimulus is part of the picture and we may be in line for more – especially if Beijing is pressed into extra spending this year to offset Trump’s planned “volley of increased tariffs on Chinese imports”.
The bulls haven’t been routed. Goldman Sachs notes that government spending “has historically had a stronger impact on Chinese equity returns than monetary easing”, says Cao Li in the South China Morning Post. Goldman argues the stimulus policy puts a “floor” on the Chinese equity market. Moreover, says Hudson Lockett for Breakingviews, firms are “undervalued” and boast “higher cash flow and profitability relative to global peers”.
Yet sentiment is “precarious”. Tech giant Tencent’s shares sold off 7% in Hong Kong on 7 December after it was added to a US list of “Chinese military companies”. The classification carries “no material consequences” but shows that “perception” is important, too. Fund managers who bought into “last year’s rally” may start to conclude that “buying into the bull case is more trouble than it’s worth”.
This article was first published in MoneyWeek's magazine. Enjoy exclusive early access to news, opinion and analysis from our team of financial experts with a MoneyWeek subscription.
Get the latest financial news, insights and expert analysis from our award-winning MoneyWeek team, to help you understand what really matters when it comes to your finances.
Alex is an investment writer who has been contributing to MoneyWeek since 2015. He has been the magazine’s markets editor since 2019.
Alex has a passion for demystifying the often arcane world of finance for a general readership. While financial media tends to focus compulsively on the latest trend, the best opportunities can lie forgotten elsewhere.
He is especially interested in European equities – where his fluent French helps him to cover the continent’s largest bourse – and emerging markets, where his experience living in Beijing, and conversational Chinese, prove useful.
Hailing from Leeds, he studied Philosophy, Politics and Economics at the University of Oxford. He also holds a Master of Public Health from the University of Manchester.
-
Number of high-earning women jumps 12% – how to convert income into pensionsMore women than ever are paying the highest rate of tax as record numbers succeed in high paying professional roles. But their pension saving still needs to catch up
-
Yoshiaki Murakami: Japan’s original corporate raiderThe originator of Japanese activism, Yoshiaki Murakami, was disgraced by an insider-trading scandal in 2006. Now, he's back, shaking things up
-
Yoshiaki Murakami: Japan’s original corporate raiderThe originator of Japanese activism, Yoshiaki Murakami, was disgraced by an insider-trading scandal in 2006. Now, he's back, shaking things up
-
Cash in on the vast growth potential of the companies electrifying the worldOpinion Martin Todd, portfolio manager, head of sustainable equities, Federated Hermes, highlights three electrification companies where he'd put his money
-
Galliford Try has firm foundations for strong growthBuilder Galliford Try has a finger in a wide range of pies, notably important work in the public sector
-
Card Factory is a stand-out small-cap going cheapIn a digital world, we still value the personal touch. That’s good news for Card Factory, whose unique business model is suited to weather all economic storms
-
8 of the best smallholdings for sale nowThe best smallholdings for sale – from a medieval cross-passage farmhouse in Taunton, Somerset, to a former farmhouse with an orchard in the Welsh Marches
-
How much gold does China have – and how to cash inChina's gold reserves are vastly understated, says Dominic Frisby. So hold gold, overbought or not
-
How to invest in undervalued gold minersThe surge in gold and other precious metals has transformed the economics of the companies that mine them. Investors should cash in, says Rupert Hargreaves
-
Debasing Wall Street's new debasement trade ideaThe debasement trade is a catchy and plausible idea, but there’s no sign that markets are alarmed, says Cris Sholto Heaton