The world’s capitalists are feeling cheerful, says John Authers on Bloomberg. Why? Because the “politburo of the world’s largest communist state” is warming to the idea of more welfare spending. There are “enough ironies… to sink the Titanic”. Chinese stocks leapt 8.5% on 30 September for their best day since 2008. Over five sessions the CSI 300 index has risen an astounding 24%. In Europe, luxury shares, which are highly exposed to Chinese consumption, also rallied strongly.
Why are Chinese stocks rising?
The excitement came after a statement by the politburo suggesting Beijing is open to using fiscal stimulus to “prod consumers to start buying stuff again”, something economists have been advising for years to little effect. Stronger social support policies are also on the table. There are as yet “no numbers”, but the declaration of intent from political leaders has been enough to trigger a surge of confidence in stock markets.
“Gone is the equivocation on deleveraging, moral hazard and provincial indebtedness, a staple of previous politburo meetings,” says Marko Papic of BCA Research. “This is Beijing’s ‘Whatever It Takes’ moment,” he says, a reference to Mario Draghi’s famous declaration in 2012 during the euro crisis. Investors are dreaming of a repeat of China’s “massive” 2008 stimulus, which helped the country avoid the worst of the global downturn, says James Mackintosh in The Wall Street Journal. But that splurge also left the economy with many of its current problems, including local government debt, overcapacity and excess housing.
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
China’s central bank had earlier unveiled a series of measures designed to tackle the housing slump, including easier monetary policy and cuts to mortgage rates for existing housing, says Anthony Anastasi for the South China Morning Post. But making credit cheaper doesn’t address the country’s fundamental “structural imbalance” – consumption is too low, while investment and savings are too high. High investment was a good strategy when China needed to build out its infrastructure and factories, but now all those factories are pumping out products that local households don’t have the cash to buy. What’s needed is a rebalancing towards consumption.
That is why the politburo’s hint of big fiscal stimulus to come has excited markets, says Reshma Kapadia in Barron’s. With the official 5% growth target “in jeopardy”, officials seem to have become “alarmed enough to shift out of slow gear”. For markets, the big question now is whether political statements are followed up with significant cash.
Some foreign investors are cautious, says the Financial Times. “We have seen these fits and starts, where China puts in place some kind of stimulus, and it has not resulted in a long-term constructive recovery,” says Saira Malik of asset manager Nuveen. “We’d be looking for more follow-through in terms of a pick-up in economic activity.” Others caution that a more immediate threat to the rally is coming into view: a possible Trump victory in the US presidential election and the prospect of a renewed US-China tariff war.
This article was first published in MoneyWeek's magazine. Enjoy exclusive early access to news, opinion and analysis from our team of financial experts with a MoneyWeek subscription.
-
House prices rise 2.9% – will the recovery continue?House prices grew by 2.9% on an annual basis in September. Will Budget policies and ‘higher-for-longer’ rates dent the recovery?
-
Nvidia earnings: what to expectNvidia announces earnings after market close on 20 November. What should investors expect from the semiconductor giant?
-
Are Chinese consumer brands challenging global chains?A new wave of Chinese consumer brands is starting to push out into global markets. Complacent Western giants are not nearly ready for the threat that they pose
-
Chinese economy: will the "bazooka" stimulus work?The Chinese economy is relying on the "bazooka" stimulus to grow. Will it work or flop?
-
How can China boost consumption?China's new policies may give consumption a cyclical boost, even if long-term gains require more serious reforms
-
Is China an undervalued market?Most funds remain wary of China amid slowing growth. Have they got it wrong?
-
Mario Draghi delivers a wake-up call on the EU economy. Can it be revived?Draghi, the former ECB chief has delivered his long-awaited report into the sluggish EU economy and what can be done to revive it.
-
Is China following Japan's economy and stock market?
China is dealing with deflation and an unappealing stock market. Is it following in the footsteps of Japan?
-
Beijing targets the boom in bonds
Stocks and property in Beijing have disappointed, but bonds are performing well
-
Is China winning the electric car race?China now sells more electric cars than conventional ones within its territory. Western countries seem determined to stop them from crossing their borders. Why?
