Nvidia earnings: is AI spending sustainable?

Nvidia, the world’s largest company by market capitalisation, announces its third quarter (Q3 earnings) results this week.

Traditionally releasing its results around a month after the rest of the Magnificent Seven group, Nvidia’s earnings release marks the climax of big tech earnings season.

Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) has been one of the most popular stocks with DIY investors and their professional counterparts for years, especially since November 2022 when ChatGPT’s public launch brought artificial intelligence (AI) to the forefront of stock market attention.

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In that time, Nvidia’s quarterly earnings (as measured by net income between October 2022 and July 2025) have increased 3,785%. Its market cap has increased more than 13 times over, leading to Nvidia becoming the world’s first $5 trillion company.

Nvidia’s share price comes into this release under unusual pressure. Amid investor concerns that the AI bubble could burst, the company has been sold off by high profile investors in recent weeks.

Shares in Nvidia stock fell 3% on 11 November as news broke that Japanese investment giant SoftBank had sold its entire stake in the chipmaker for $5.8 billion. It then emerged on 17 November that Thiel Macro LLC, the hedge fund owned by Palantir and PayPal co-founder Peter Thiel, had also sold off its stake in Nvidia.

In the near term, Nvidia “is facing the tough task of meeting high (earnings) expectations and high scepticism around AI capex, likely only resolved when broader market volatility (shutdown, interest rates) subsides,” said Bank of America analysts led by Vivek Arya in a research note.

As of 14 November, Nvidia’s share price has gained 41.6% in 2025 to date, and is up 30% over the past 12 months.

When does Nvidia announce its Q3 results?

Nvidia announces its results for the quarter ended 26 October 2025 on 19 November after US markets close. That could be any time after 9pm GMT, though Nvidia indicated in the press release confirming the date of the earnings release that the results will be announced at approximately 1.20pm PT (9.20pm GMT).

The earnings call, in which Nvidia management will discuss the highlights from the quarter and field questions from analysts, will start at 2pm PT (10pm GMT).

Note that, according to Nvidia’s financial calendar, these results will cover Q3 of its 2026 financial year (despite aligning closely with Q3 in the 2025 calendar year).

What do analysts expect from Nvidia’s Q3 results?

Analysts polled by London Stock Exchange Group yield consensus estimates for Nvidia’s Q3 results of $1.25 in earnings per share (EPS) on revenue of $54.8 billion.

If accurate, those numbers represent year-on-year increases of 54% and 56% respectively.

Last quarter, Nvidia guided for $54 billion in total revenue (plus or minus 2%, so $52.9-55.08 billion).

Dan Ives, head of global technology research at Wedbush Securities, is a bullish advocate for Nvidia and its place in the ‘AI revolution’.

“We believe Nvidia's earnings [this] week will be another major validation moment for the AI revolution and be a positive catalyst for tech stocks into year-end,” he said, adding that “investors continue to underestimate the scale and scope of AI spend”.

Arya and his team at Bank of America hope that Nvidia’s management can “provide reassurance around demand and supply” in the context of investor concerns over the durability of AI capex.

Bank of America has a price objective of $275 for Nvidia’s shares, implying 44.6% gains from their 14 November close. Wedbush has a price target of $210, implying 10% gains.